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Euro almost at it's introductory value vs the Dollar!
They don't...........they 'encourage' the commercial banking sector to do it for them by manipulating key short term interest rates.......like the rate at which the CB acts as lender of last resort.
How. I'm not being a ****. Well not on purpose. I need to understand it more tactically to have any idea what is going on. What do they physically do. How does the money move?
The main cost of having an international currency is that it can complicate the conduct of monetary policy. Because foreigners hold a substantial share of the currency, a portfolio shift away from the currency, for example, can lead to large capital outflows and/or large declines in the exchange rate. Concerns about the effects of changes in portfolio preferences caused both the German and the Japanese governments to take measures to restrict the international uses of the deutsche mark and yen, respectively, during the 1970s and early 1980s. Concerns that the imbalances in the US economy, including the large current account deficit, could lead to a massive sell-off by foreigners of their holdings of US dollar balances have underpinned concerns of a possible hard landing for the US currency.
Nevermind about my source. He's not Alan Greenspan but he knows more than you. Next time don't be such an ass
"Trust me, a touch of reading and you'll be able to run macroweenie rings around Roland, who has some grasp of economic statistics without the backbone of understanding he needs to use his knowledge well."
Oooh, cutie. But instead of debating with you, let's just wait for the US easy money boom you predicted, shall we.
GP:
"How. I'm not being a ****. Well not on purpose. I need to understand it more tactically to have any idea what is going on. What do they physically do. How does the money move?"
Just consider what a CB usually does in its relations with commercial banks. The CB lends to the banks at a certain interest rate (secured or unsecured), and the banks lend to borrowers. At the CB and the banks, this shows up as bookkeeping entries. Bank X owes Y to the CB, and bank X has Y to lend around. The lower the rate, the higher the demand. The CB can pre- or refund bank lending.
This does not have to be, but can be converted to cash. In a fiat money system, the claim the bank has against the CB is that CB accounts are converted to paper money.
Another factor is the money multiplier. If you pay 100 $ cash into a bank account, and the bank lends the 100 $ to someone else, the money supply is 200 $ (100 $ held in cash, 100 $ held in short term accounts by the non-banking sector). This can be repeated infinately unless there is a minimum reserve requirement. (at say 10 %, this would mean that the bank could only lend 90 $ of the 100 $ it recieved).
One way to inject money directly is for the CB to buy securities.
Of course Spiky will desperately try to find a hair in that soup.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
Nevermind about my source. He's not Alan Greenspan but he knows more than you. Next time don't be such an ass
Read the whole article............the parargraph you quote is sound, but the article by no means suggests that loss of key currency status means that monetary policy can no longer be used..........which is precisely what you suggested on more than one occasion.
Oooh, cutie. But instead of debating with you, let's just wait for the US easy money boom you predicted, shall we.
Lol.........clearly we are living in a world where the US is in a deflationary spiral Roland.
In actual fact we are much closer to what I said would happen since I predicted a year of below trend growth before the recovery. This still looks sound to me.
As to the explanation of central banking, I find it adequate.
The UK's currency is no longer "key" yet monteray policy is used almost exclusivley to control the economy
Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.
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"...clearly we are living in a world where the US is in a deflationary spiral Roland."
You forgot that one of your main beefs with me is that I don't believe in deflationary spirals.
"As to the explanation of central banking, I find it adequate."
I'm shocked, SHOCKED.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
Don't be shocked.........I am a fair man. You have potential........if you would just put aside your love of the argument and take some honest advice and learn some of the material I suggested.......Then perhaps you wouldn't make such comments about deflationary spirals.
What you predicted hasn't happened, and since we fought realised events have definitely been somewhat closer to my predictions that yours. But it's not over yet.......we shall see.
Originally posted by DrSpike
What you predicted hasn't happened, and since we fought realised events have definitely been somewhat closer to my predictions that yours. But it's not over yet.......we shall see.
Maybe you should go and dig up the predictions.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
Yes I thought you'd try and be slippery on what was said, and meant. That is why I took an entire day out to nail you down.
When the situation clears I will be posting the predictions.......if you want to do it now I ask only that you quote me directly without using your 'interpretation' and do not quote me out of context.
Thanks
Btw it is by no means over.......AG is gloomy today.
And that after I had to extort numbers from you over several pages. I think we stuck with this for 2003-2006:
"I gave you my opinion, just below trend (say 0.5% below if you want a number) for 1 year then trend growth."
I can't remember for sure but I think you put US trend growth at 3-3.5% ?
Or do you feel misrepresented?
Btw, in this point your arguing style has an eery similarity to that of GP. Maybe it's some anglosaxon thing.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
I only said: "Should your scenario be realised over the next few years I will accept that post 2000 expansionary policy to avert a recession that otherwise would have happened was the right choice."
I also said 50/50 on doing a Japan. So if you want nrs, no pro. Japan scenario, around zero. Simple hangover scenario, something around 5 % accumulated.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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