Had we had access to a 2g tile (thus producing 3) I would be pushing to go for a religion, but with only 10g (11 bpt) the chances are 1 or 2 will have more bpt than us, 2 or 3 with the same and 1 or 2 with less.
I haven't actually done the statistical analysis* but from experience i'd say that on average there are 1.5 civs with 11g, 4.5 with 10g and 1.5 with only 9. This comes from setting up about 50 games with the same civs, map size, etc. as the demogame. Funny thing is, I always beat the AI to meditation in those SP games.
Thing is, IMHO, with 10g we have a chance at early religion, but, as Krill pointed out, if we move the settler to the ph the probability drops to almost zero.
*To quote FP, "80% of all statistics are made up"
I haven't actually done the statistical analysis* but from experience i'd say that on average there are 1.5 civs with 11g, 4.5 with 10g and 1.5 with only 9. This comes from setting up about 50 games with the same civs, map size, etc. as the demogame. Funny thing is, I always beat the AI to meditation in those SP games.
Thing is, IMHO, with 10g we have a chance at early religion, but, as Krill pointed out, if we move the settler to the ph the probability drops to almost zero.
*To quote FP, "80% of all statistics are made up"
Comment