KGB: opponents initial choices discussion

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Arrian
Gentlemen, our opponents:

Vox: Catherine (Cre/Fin. Hunting/Mining)
Mercs: Frederick (Cre/Phi. Hunting/Mining)
Sanatarium: Elizabeth (Fin/Phi. Fishing/Mining)
Horde: Kublai (Agg/Cre. Hunting/Wheel)
Banana: Louis (Cre/Ind. Agriculture/Wheel)
AC: Qin (Fin/Ind. Agriculture/Mining)

and us:

GS: Mansa Musa (SPI/FIN. Wheel/Mining)

Four CRE (!), four FIN, two PHI, two IND, one SPI (us), one AGG. Not one ORG choice, heh.

Note: NOBODY IN THIS GAME STARTS WITH MYSTICISM.

Reposted here to keep the analysis out of the Smith's debate.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Some things that stroke at first reading:

- Indeed, nobody started with mysticism.

And we're FIN, and SPI... not only do we have a very good chance to go religion first, others will assume we do so too.

The opponent with the best chance of an early rel is Sanatorium (why am I not surprised?): land near a seafood and we'll sure lose any race we try.

- we're the only SPI
Which means the pyramids should be extremely high on our list, compared to others.

The thing is, we haven't discussed the pyramids in any length yet, but if other teams want to try to go for it, and they look around seeing their opponents, we will automatically be assumed to be the top contender (and AC, in lesser ranking Banana).

If we've got stone, we should follow what others might think we'd try, and go for the pyramids. It will serve us well, and it doesn't matter we'll be predictable.

- 4 CRE

am I right in thinking that this is primarily a MP favourite? It certainly is a warmonger's trait, unless someone would want to go the culture route.

- our biggest opponent: Sanatorium, without much doubt.

Look at their choice: Elizabeth (Fin/Phi. Fishing/Mining). They will go very GP heavy for sure... FP will love the leader, I expect them to get at least 2 GP by the time we're able to get one. BW will be very high on their list, as one of their best options is to get early wonders... which means Stonehenge might be their first goal (-->Mysticism, but perhaps after BW)

Sanatorium can do a lot of things with those GPs, the two biggest I can think of right now is to race towards a tech asap (CS, Philo, MC+IW,...), and to start a super early GA. In that last case, they will rush for sure: If we start near Sana, we must make sure our defenses can take an early GA-fueled rush. Before 1000 BC, Sana might want to destroy at least 1 civ.

- The Horde might try the same, BTW.
Kublai is a good HA rusher. Then follow up with Chocos once evreyone starts to build spears.

DeepO

[Arrian]

Ok, I'll start. Edit: hah! DeepO couldn't resist one little post...

Creative sure is popular, eh? We're playing MP, MP often is a shorter game (increasing the value of the early game even more than normal), and CRE is an early game trait. So that makes a certain amount of sense.

However, the longer we survive & prosper, the more having a second "real" trait will help us (and AC & Sanatarium). I'm genuinely concerned, however, by the possibility of being hemmed in by one or more CRE civs right out of the gate. Ugh.

Two civs went IND. Qin I'm not surprised by at all. Solid civ, makes sense. Louis... meh. Banana. Having two IND civs in the game makes shooting for Wonders quite difficult.

There are also two PHI civs. That could make the tech/wonder situation very volatile. Let's just hope neither of them starts with easy access to a wonder-speeding resource (marble/stone).

We, however, are the sole SPI civ. We alone have the ability to switch civics at will. One can certainly debate exactly how useful that ability really is, but let's forget that and make sure we maximize our advantage in that area.

...

Start techs: as noted, nobody starts with Mysticism. As a FIN civ, we've got a good shot at getting one, especially since so many of the civs start with Mining and thus BW is beckoning. If we have decent commerce to start, we should at least seriously consider a run to a religion (I'd pick Buddism).

-Arrian

[DeepO]

What I expected before is only emphasized: AC and Sanatorium are going to be the hardest to predict. Together with us, these teams went with less traditional choices.

I also expect these 2 other teams to have some excellent intelligence on us: we are SPI, we will switch civics as soon as we can find any profit in it. These switches are announced to the other teams in PBEM, right? If so, most teams will lose sight of what civics we're running. AC nor Sana can be expected to be sloppy.

They will probably have a spreadsheet around, where a history of our civics are listed. With sucha list, they can see what we're up to: build units, or get a GP, or go to war, etc. One of our larger goals in this game will be trying to find more camouflage techniques, to confuse these 2 teams.

DeepO

[Arrian]

NOBODY can be expected to be sloppy. I am most concerned about Sanatarium, Horde (if we start anywhere near them, anyway) and AC. We should strive not to overlook the others, though.

Well, we could use war-like civics for a military buildup but not go to war (hey, you could use 6XP to grant 2 city garrison promos if you want to).

But yeah, if we're running Pacifism, Mercantalism and Representation... gee, what are we up to?

-Arrian

[DeepO]

I didn't want to sound like the other teams are going to be sloppy, not at all. But Sana and AC will not for sure. They will be eyeballing us... even if we're on the other side of the world.

The Horde seems a bit scary to me too, They would make great chokers as well. But I preceive their threat as only a near one, where AC and Sana can be dangerous to whatever plan we've got (e.g. religions, GPs, monopoly techs, etc)

DeepO

[Aginor]

AC and Sana clearly have the best choices if the game goes long (these were the precise civs I advocated). The ultimate objectives are a bit different (pure tech-rush with Liz vs. Wonder spam for a possible Cultural win with Qin), but both civs are particularly strong in that they have a trait for getting a leg up on tech and then another for converting on a tech lead early (Liz's Philo leads to even more tech and Qin's Industrious leads to Forges and Wonders).

Our civ is a bit more flexible than theirs, and consequently is a bit stronger in a warmonger game, albeit at a cost of focus. We also should be a particularly tough nut to crack early on...given the choice between rushing us or Liz early on, who do YOU think the Horde is going after?

The presence of a lot of Creative civs suggests to me that the players of those four civs think that either initial borders will be decisive or that they intend to do a LOT of conquering and will need to bring the new turf under their control. The sole advantage of Kublai over Genghis is the fact that the Horde won't have to build cultural improvements to expand to the fat cross in their conquered domains. Now to me, having more units earlier strikes me as a much stronger proposition than controlling the turf I take sooner, so I think this is a mistake on their part.

Some suspicions on how this game will play out:

1) Given the lack of civs with Mysticism and the fact that we're Financial, everyone will expect us to go early religion...and do it capably. This should deter the other civs from heading down this road to start with. If we get a decent start for commerce, I think that this becomes our best strategic move out of the starting gate. We'll get fantastic intelligence if we can get the only religion(s) on our continent. Further, no one is going to want to mess with Skirmishers, so we can go for an early religion without necessarily painting a giant target on our chests.

2) We've got to determine just how paranoid we are/need to be. How soon do we go for those Skirmishers? I don't think that the Horde is actually as likely to hit someone hard early as Sana...chances are the Horde is going to develop some infrastructure and hit with their UU. Strategically, there's no reason to run around with Axemen when a bit of patience can get you a much nastier unit to go marauding with. Also, those Axemen are pretty dead-ended in terms of upgrading for a long time, while Keshiks upgrade to further aggressive nastiness (Knights and Cavalry).

3) If we hit stone and go for the Pyramids...should we deviate from the usual GP plan and try and spit out some Engineers? Certainly we'll want our shrines and at least one Academy...but Engineers strike me as a powerful way to sneak our own key Wonder or two in past the Industrious players.

[Arrian]

Posted by Krill in another thread:

I've been playing MP recently, and I have layed a few games against FP, of all people.

What I can say is that FP loves to get the oracle first, and just run through the tech tree, and then slaughter people with a lot mroe units than they can come up with.

So what i would say is that if we can get the Oracle early, then we can put a crimp on our main competitors prefered style of play.

So put me down for the religion route. get a religion, get BW, get preisthood, chop oracle, nab IW.

Food for thought.

-Arrian

[Solomwi]

From a C3CDG Desolation Row perspective, expect a rush from the Horde if we start next to them, but if we can blunt their initial blow, they can fairly easily be convinced to turn toward a softer target. The specter of Skirmishers should help a lot in this respect.

[alva]

Rushing is very much a gamblers game, this game taking 2 years, it becomes a very big gamble, few people are willing to make. If it fails, you're basically out of the game.
Of course, that doesn't mean we should be carefull.

[Solomwi]

Oh, I agree, alva. Based on their behavior in the last game, though, I think in anything but a start that dictates against it, they'll be willing to take that gamble.

[DeepO]

Catching up...

Originally posted by Aginor
(Liz's Philo leads to even more tech and Qin's Industrious leads to Forges and Wonders).

In the early game, IND plays very similar to PHI if you want to. PHI let's you get more GPs, while the wonders of IND also give those early GPs if they want. GPs will be one of the most important parts of this game, and I intend to spend quite some time analyzing them. Early on, these will be big jumps, especially so if you're able to trade for a few of the lowest techs. Blocking such trade, or at least trying to deminish the returns from such a trade will be an important diplo minigame.

Our civ is a bit more flexible than theirs, and consequently is a bit stronger in a warmonger game, albeit at a cost of focus.

I don't quite follow, are you saying that we are sure to get distracted into other paths, and thus won't be the best warmongers?

I don't think we will need to be such a warmonging civ to be successful, however it is a possibility. If so, being SPI should make us more focused, not less... or at least that's my view. Do you foresee certain risks/problems we should look out for?

We also should be a particularly tough nut to crack early on...given the choice between rushing us or Liz early on, who do YOU think the Horde is going after?

Yeah, but the problem is we need 2 techs to get to our skirmishers. It's not exactly cheap either, and we could very well end up without archery until much later in the game. The Horde knows that too...

The presence of a lot of Creative civs suggests to me that the players of those four civs think that either initial borders will be decisive or that they intend to do a LOT of conquering and will need to bring the new turf under their control. The sole advantage of Kublai over Genghis is the fact that the Horde won't have to build cultural improvements to expand to the fat cross in their conquered domains. Now to me, having more units earlier strikes me as a much stronger proposition than controlling the turf I take sooner, so I think this is a mistake on their part.

I'm not the biggest fan of CRE either... but that's because I'm used to play at levels where going to war without running the slider happens very rarely. In fact, running the slider from very early on might be your best option. All cities expand borders without obelisks or CRE with the slider.

At lower levels, it changes, though, and I understand why it is so loved. The same as FIN, I think... it's a very easy to understand trait. SPI certainly is not, I haven't scratched the surface of its possibilities yet.

1) Given the lack of civs with Mysticism and the fact that we're Financial, everyone will expect us to go early religion...and do it capably. This should deter the other civs from heading down this road to start with. If we get a decent start for commerce, I think that this becomes our best strategic move out of the starting gate. We'll get fantastic intelligence if we can get the only religion(s) on our continent. Further, no one is going to want to mess with Skirmishers, so we can go for an early religion without necessarily painting a giant target on our chests.

I'd welcome a religious focus in the game, but the problem lays in the second path... either we go for early religion, or we go for early skirmishers. Doing both at the same time? Risky... we might end up losing both paths. We don't need skirmishers before others get archers, though, in case we don't intend to go choke someone. (and choking would mean no early religion, as you can't outbuild and outresearch another civ, you need to choose between the two)

2) We've got to determine just how paranoid we are/need to be. How soon do we go for those Skirmishers? I don't think that the Horde is actually as likely to hit someone hard early as Sana...chances are the Horde is going to develop some infrastructure and hit with their UU. Strategically, there's no reason to run around with Axemen when a bit of patience can get you a much nastier unit to go marauding with. Also, those Axemen are pretty dead-ended in terms of upgrading for a long time, while Keshiks upgrade to further aggressive nastiness (Knights and Cavalry).

I disagree about the lack of upgrade possibilities for axemen: it depends on which path you choose. If going straigth for Steel, you will be amazed how fast one can reach grenadiers, and get city attackers from axemen upgrades. I do it all the time, and I like it better than the HA to Cav upgrade.

If we see loads of HA, we can expect a more Cav path, while loads of axemen might suggest a grenadier beeline. But those suggestions can be deceiving as well... so it all comes down to how paranoid we want to be

3) If we hit stone and go for the Pyramids...should we deviate from the usual GP plan and try and spit out some Engineers? Certainly we'll want our shrines and at least one Academy...but Engineers strike me as a powerful way to sneak our own key Wonder or two in past the Industrious players.

Pyramids would change everything. Mind you, 50 turns for a GE is a long time to wait, if you can do a GS in 17. Pyramids come relatively late: waiting 50 turns for a GP from Stonehenge is a lot less costly: you'll have to hurry to get a lib or temple up before the GP completes on its own. While waiting for a GE from the pyramids, we'll most likely have a lib already.

For academies: we'll have to weigh our options, and an early academy can be very important (especially when going for GLib). A well picked tech advance might net us more, though.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Solomwi
Oh, I agree, alva. Based on their behavior in the last game, though, I think in anything but a start that dictates against it, they'll be willing to take that gamble.

I would suggest we seriously consider it as an option ourselves, if we get the chance. Big risks, but also possibly big gains...

As to others not rushing us because of our skirmishers: only if we decide to build loads and loads of skirmishers early on. Many are always needed, but how many... ?

Any input on that, Krill, what would you suggest as a possible defensive force at certain points of the game? Any typical numbers we could e.g. expect FP (who is the king of MP, after all, so he's a good reference) to rush / overwhelm with?

DeepO

[Krill]

If we are near Sarantium, do anything within our power to kill them. Rush 'em with skirmishers and axemen is good, Horse Archers better.

If Sarantium were to rush us...I've seen FP attack with a force of 25+ muskets in an FFA training game before, from an ancient start (and that was where he played peacefully. He invaded me because i had a) beaten him to the oracle, b) was about to beat him on score if he did not attack me.)

Kill Sarantium is my suggestion. And do it early, after shorting the Oracle. (That is why I like the religious route, we could short the Oracle and screw everyone over, but at the very least we make sure noone uses it to break the game.)

I have not played enough games with FP to note what he would normally use to rush in the ancient/classical eras with though, and most players play MP in such a way that the strategies are fundamentally altered (warrior rushing, chariot rushing etc, right off the bat).

On that note, early tech progress is pretty much like this: Always beeline for bronze, then AH and then wheel, then it changes. And if you don't prepare, pretty much everyone loses one city. I would say, that...4 or 5 Skirmishers would be the amount required to withstand a chariot rush, and crush it quickly. Withstanding an axe rush is a lot harder, and we would require bronze. If we have bronze, we ought to be fine, IMO...

[Solomwi]

Originally posted by DeepO

As to others not rushing us because of our skirmishers: only if we decide to build loads and loads of skirmishers early on. Many are always needed, but how many... ?

In some situations, true, but if there's another target aas geographically available and I'm planning a rush, just the idea of skirmishers could well be enough to turn me toward the other target. I'd rather take out Japan before they get samurai, then turn to Mali after skirmishers are obsolete, for instance. Obviously I'm over-simplifying the decision, though.