Operation "Backstab"

[Sullla]

Did some simming of Mutal attacks this afternoon:

Sim I: Optimistic Scenario
Mutal with CGII longbow (full fortify bonus) + whipped pike (no promotions or fortify bonus)

1) 2k die, 2k + 5ha survive
2) 3k 1ha die, 1ha retreat, 1k + 4ha survive
3) 2k die, 2k + 5ha survive
4) 1k die, 3k + 5ha survive
5) 3k die, 1k + 5ha survive
6) 1k die, 3k + 5ha survive
7) 1k die, 3k + 5ha survive
8) 2k die, 2k + 5ha survive
9) 2k die, 2k + 5ha survive
10) 2k die, 2k + 5ha survive

OK, pretty clear that there's no need to do any upgrading if we face just the longbow and a whipped pike. All 10 attempts won pretty easily, even with some awful luck on sim #2. However, things become dicier if we have to face a third unit in Mutal.

Sim II: Worst-Case Scenario
Mutal with CGII longbow (full fortify bonus) + whipped pike (no promotions or fortify bonus) + CGII musket (no fortify)

1) 4k + 1ha die, 1ha retreat, 4ha survive (SUCCESS)
2) 3k + 3ha die, 1k + 2ha survive (SUCCESS)
3) 3k die, 1k + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
4) 4k + 2ha die, 3ha survive (SUCCESS)
5) 3k die, 1k + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
6) 4k + 3ha die, 1ha retreat, 2ha survive (FAILURE, 2 defenders left alive)
7) 3k + 1ha die, 1ha retreat, 1k + 4ha survive (SUCCESS)
8) 3k + 2ha die, 1k + 3ha survive (SUCCESS)
9) 4k + 5ha die (CATASTROPHIC FAILURE, all 3 defenders left alive! Although there were some atrocious rolls in here.)
10) 2k + 1ha die, 2k + 4ha survive (SUCCESS)

Even in what I believe to be the worst case scenario, we still capture Mutal in 8 out of 10 sims, although the combat was often close, and the last horse archer took the city several times. Now here's the same situation simmed out with cuirassiers instead of knights:

Sim III: Worst-Case Scenario with Cuirassiers

1) 3c + 1ha die, 1c + 4ha survive (SUCCESS)
2) 4c + 5ha survive (TOTAL SUCCESS)
3) 1c + 1ha die, 1c retreat, 3c + 4ha survive (SUCCESS)
4) 2c die, 1c retreat, 2c + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
5) 2c die, 2c + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
6) 1c die, 3c + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
7) 2c + 2ha die, 2c + 3ha survive (SUCCESS)
8) 3c die, 1c + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
9) 2c die, 2c + 5ha survive (SUCCESS)
10) 2c + 3ha die, 2c + 2ha survive (SUCCESS)

All of these sims were successful, even #10 where a cuirassier died against the Imperio pike without doing a single point of damage. And perhaps equally importantly, cuirassiers survived every single sim to live and fight again, as opposed to the slaughter of knights in the previous sim. On average, 2 out of 4 cuirassiers lived. My recommendation is therefore that we spend the 200g to turn all our knights into cuirassiers. Think of it this way: is it worth 200g to be absolutely certain that we burn down the Imperio capital? I say yes, especially because we'll loot at least 100g back in the taking of the city! This also insures us against Imperio getting a fourth unit into Mutal (somehow), meaning we still have a good chance at success. My sincere hope is that we won't even face defenders as tough as the ones I estimated here!

Note: I had our top knight/cuirassier promoted with CII/Melee, which was a mistake in retrospect. We should promote this unit with CIII instead, and will likely do a little better than these sims as a result. Savegame file is attached for anyone who wants to play around with this further. Random seed is not preserved, so load away and get different results.

[mostly-harmless]

Looks promising. Upgrading deletes all movement points, iirc. is the plan to attack on T170 still valid?

mh

[regoarrarr]

If so we have to upgrade this turn, right?

[sunrise089]

Yes - the knights and such are to remain stationary next turn anyways while the workers move back into position and the ships sail to our border tile with Imperio.

[sooooo]

We can upgrade on T168, next turn.

[Sullla]

Here's the relevant C&D info for Imperio this turn. It's not the greatest, unfortunately.

Imperio 458EP (+0 EP)
Current Civics: Hereditary Rule, Bureaucracy, Slavery, Decentralization, Organized Religion
Mutal (size 13) = N/A, zero shields invested
Infrastructure: Palace, Barracks, Granary, Monument, Forge, Library, Stonehenge, Oracle, The Sistine Chapel
Lakamha (size 10) = 40 shields (+40)
Infrastructure: Barracks, Monument, Granary, Library, Bank, Islamic shrine, Notre Dame
Chichen Itza (size 8) = 53 shields (+13)
Infrastructure: Granary, Monument, Lighthouse, Barracks, Christian Monastery, Library
Uxmal (size 15) = N/A, zero shields invested
Infrastructure: Monument, Barracks, Granary, Ball Court (Colosseum), Lighthouse, Library, Statue of Zeus
Mayapan (size 15) = 102 shields (+12)
Infrastructure: Monument, Barracks, Granary, Lighthouse, Ball Court (Colosseum)
Calakmul (size 10) = 25 shields (+25)
Infrastructure: Monument, Library, Barracks, Granary, Islamic Temple, Lighthouse
Oxhuitza (size 3) = 30 shields (+10)
Infrastructure: Monument, Granary, Library
Damascus (size 4) = 2t resistance
Infrastructure: Monument, Granary, Apostolic Palace (Christianity)

Mutal finished a build that was either 80, 90, or 100 shields. (Last turn: 73 shields, +26 shields/turn.) There's really no way to tell what this is, unfortunately. My best guess is a cuirassier: Imperio started this build the same turn they discovered Military Tradition, and it's a logical build since Imperio didn't know how quickly Templars would collapse. Worst-case scenario is a musket build, which fortifies in Mutal (although I took this into account with our sims, and we can still capture the city even if that's the case.)

Uxmal also worries me. Unfortunately, it finishes what looks like an 80 shield build (Last turn: 66 shields, +18 shields/turn) which can only be a musket. If headed south, the unit will be passing near to Mutal, and would be able to move in there and reinforce when we attack. There's really nothing we can do about this, however. Cross our fingers and hope that the unit won't be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

It's theoretically possible Imperio could get four defenders into Mutal when we attack. If so, we'd probably have to cancel the strike, so let's hope that doesn't happen...

[sunrise089]

Fortunately even if that happens they won't be able to attack out. I'm not in the game at the moment, but I assume there is some sort of city-splitting opportunity that might permit us to get a second city even if Mutal lives. Of course that would hardly be ideal...

[mostly-harmless]

In the light of Banana possibly betraying our intent at Chichen Itza, I suggest to escort the galleys with the trireme. Name them "Santa Maria", "Nina" & "Pinta" to maybe confuse Imperio into thinking about a long journey for the New World or possibly for the next continent.

Even if Imperio gets suspicious about the boats, they might just move a defender out of Mutal to protect CI.

mh

[sunrise089]

I need to get to bed, but here is the update. 8 in-game hours left in the turn. Everything is moved except our naval squadron and our units in the SE. The relevant pic, notice the knight:



Option 1: Continue as normal, cover our workers with some number of units.

Option 2: Move to the wheat tile with our stack and workers, since Imperio can see us anyways.

Option 3: Call off the attack.

Option 4: Someone is more creative than me and has a better idea.

Option A, to be combined with any of the above: Send some sort of message to Imperio.

I Am John is going to paste the text to the chat I had with him, Sooooo, and M_H.

[Iamjohn]

Chatlog

sunrise from x.x.x.60 joined the chat 4 minutes ago
sooooo from x.x.x.229 joined the chat 101 seconds ago
sooooo: hi
sunrise: hi guys
sunrise: ok, moderate potential problem
sunrise: stand by for screenshot
sunrise: http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5...enshot0430.jpg
Iamjohn: hmm, that would be an issue
sooooo: yeah, definitely an issue
Iamjohn: I really don't think there's much we can do though
sooooo: but what can they do?
sooooo: their stack isn't on a road, they can only move it one tile
sunrise: see, this is why always war is easier - we just kill the sentry, and they don't know if we have a big stack or a single unit
sooooo: i suppose they could just not take Acre
sunrise: no, they have no ability to hit us except with knights and the units in Damasscus, and only the later after the Templars die
sunrise: but they can withdraw
Iamjohn: what happens if they decide to bug out
sooooo: and move their stack 1N
Iamjohn: go north
sunrise: also, we have to cover the workers in case they declare on us
sunrise: what are the odds they arent going to see this coming after the boats move and the email?
sunrise: about zero?
Iamjohn: yeah, I think they definitly arn't trusting atm
Iamjohn: what about if they decide to head to Damascus?
sooooo: yeah about zero
sunrise: wel i just wanted to run by you guys for a reality check to make sure we shouldnt aboty
sooooo: let's wait for 8 hours to come up for a plan
Iamjohn: I don't think we have a choice imo
Iamjohn: unless you see something I don't
Iamjohn: just continue on
sunrise: actually - the only tile that saves their stack is 1NE, onto the hill, I think
sunrise: I should have brought four workers, then they couldnt have escaped
sunrise: although we'd have to capture Acre
Iamjohn: poor templars could be limping on for awhile if things go wrong...
mh from x.x.x.97 joined the chat 3 seconds ago
mh: hi
Iamjohn: hey
sunrise]: hi
sunrise: check out the above link MH
Iamjohn: look at the screenshot at the top of the chat
sunrise: it isnt good
sooooo: they can escape how they want if they don't take acre - 4 workers wouldn't make a difference
Iamjohn: let's hope they don't take the better part of valor then
sunrise: ugh, of course...i wasnt thinking
mh: hmm, tricky. If Templars culture is not removed, we can't follow them as quickly as we wanted. The thing is I am not sure the will retreat seeing our stack. We don't have any 2movers and they might feel their stack is better than ours.
sunrise: they may also capture our workers
Iamjohn: the fact that they arn't fully healed might concern them
mh: We could say, we want to make sure Acre is taken. Or we just say "PAL next" and have them wondering.
sunrise: so here is my proposal
Iamjohn: too much talking is almost as bad as simply admiting that we're going to attack imo
sunrise: move the main stack to the staging tile 3E of Acre, move the workers onto the tile they need to road and road, cover the workers with 2 maces we have available, and cover the workers with X units out of our main stack
sunrise: for X I recommend a pair of pikes, for 2 maces 2 pikes total, against 1 knight, and 1 musket, 2 maces, 1 longbow, and 2 pikes, all but the knight in Damascus
sunrise: actually, since they see us anyways, we can also just move on the wheat tile
sunrise: then we dont need to worry about the workers
mh: The workers are only exposed in peace times, right? So if they go for them, They would have to declare.
sunrise: yes
Iamjohn: I suppose
sunrise: they have to declare first if they want the workers, and they have to do it this turn
mh: True
Iamjohn: what units do they have in Damascus?
sunrise: mustket, longbow, 2 wounded maces, 2 pikes
mh: I would be very surprised if they declare.
Iamjohn: I wouldn't put it past them if they decided it was the best option for them *shrug*
mh: If it turns out we have to thank Banana for this increased alertness of Imperio, that would really disappoint me.
Iamjohn: it does seem an odd coincidence
mh: @John: for just two workers?
Iamjohn: well to put us more on the defence
sooooo: i think t it's fairly natural for them to put a knight on that hill
Iamjohn: they're probably concerned about their SOD
mh: True, but up to today, they think of us as their trusted allies.
sooooo: hey don't need the knight to take acre and they want to get jerusalem
Iamjohn: possibly
sooooo: mh why do you think banana tipped them off?
Iamjohn: I guess the betrayer always suspects betrayal, eh?
sunrise: well do you have any preference over Sullla's tile versus the wheat tile Sooooo?
mh: Yep. I am in favour of the Wheat tile solution
sooooo: probably the wheat is better but may as well wait - we have time left in the turn
mh: But move the workers there as well, in case we ned them later
mh: yes, lets bring it up in the forums, someone might come up with a whacky idea. "Kill the knigh ans say Oooops"
sunrise: do workers captured in a city have movement?
Iamjohn: Don't think so
mh: then move the knights to Mutal and say "hera are the replacements"
sunrise: if so we also need to consider Imperio can capture acre, use the workers to road under the Imperio stack, and then hit us
Iamjohn: we're upgrading them to currassiers iirc
sooooo: unlikely, they'd have to have 2 workers on the wheat for that to be possible
sunrise: just confirming the two workers they will capture in Acre wont have movement Sooooo
sooooo: oh, yeah those two. no they don't have movement
mh: I repeat, I don't think Imperio will declare on us staright away.
sunrise: ok, good
mh: If we go for the Wheat, they actually might split their stack and move some more defenders into Damaskus. And we can pick them up separately
Iamjohn: I just tested it, they wont' have movement
sunrise: well how about then I move everything else, but not the troops in the SW, and one of you guys can make a forum post?
sunrise: it is very very late here, and I'd like to get to bed
Iamjohn: I'll post the chat log if you want
Iamjohn: other then that sounds good to me
mh: Sounds good. Good night sunrise. I am about to have breakfast now.
Iamjohn: night all
sunrise: thanks guys...I'll be back online in a few

[mostly-harmless]

Probably the tile to put our knights on is 2W of Mutal? It's the furthest away from the southern army we can get.

Hmmm, but that won't give us line of sight into Mutal.
I suggest to put the Mutal Raiding Party onto the Iron Hill 2SW of Mutal.

mh

[Dreylin]

Can we move up the timetable and start the Northern attacks this turn?

How about declaring this turn, killing the Knight and putting the stack onto that hill. With two Workers underneath, we can road it next turn and then attack either Damascus or Acre, and we get the benefit of the hill for defense if they decide to attack?

[timmy827]

Workers definitely must be covered - if Imperio moves 1N we need them to road that tile to attack T169.

My big concern is they get smart and move their uberstack 1NE to the hill (more importantly we can't attack there, unless a rare case). In that case I think we raze Damascus, killing the units there on the cheap, but play cat-and-mouse while their stack is off road network - that way they can't hit us first. There is a slight chance that maybe they will take Acre and move their stack 1NE - that's the only case where moving to the wheat buys us something (since we could road through the neutral ex-Templar land and hit them. Not ideal on the hill, but worth it to get the first strike in and kill a bunch of already-hurt units.) If we think this won't happen though the wheat tile doesn't get us anything, and lets us cover the two trailing macemen by staying 1W of the wheat.

Not to sound alarmist, but 2 1/2 hours to play. I don't want to take sunrise's turnplayer spot unless totally necessary however I will need to be at work by the end of our slot and unable to login then.

[mostly-harmless]

But we also do not lose anything by moving onto the Wheat.

mh

[sunrise089]

The advantage of the wheat is that we don't have to declare and we don't have to cover the workers.

@Dreylin - We can't move the timetable up unfortunately due to the Cuiraissier upgrades.

EDIT: 1 hour left to discuss.