PAL: Diplomacy Thread #2

[sooooo]

If we open borders who does that benefit more?

Not that I necessarily suggest we do it though even it the answer is us.

[timmy827]

If we open borders who does that benefit more?

Not that I necessarily suggest we do it though even it the answer is us.

Hard to say. I believe the trade routes are bidirectional. For example, we only have one trade route with Imperio, despite having 7 cities with no foreign trade routes; I believe that we don't have more with Imperio because most of their trade routes are to the other continent (being more lucrative).

If we have a domestic traderoute go to PAL and PAL has a domestic route become one with us, that's basically even, likely each one goes from 1 to 3 commerce. If we get a traderoute with PAL that replaces one of theirs with another team (likely Banana), we come out ahead (domestic->foreign overseas is more of an upgrade than foregin/same continent->foreign overseas). If the reverse happens PAL comes out ahead; although we only have one foreign route on this continent, some routes with PAL could displace ours with Rabbits due to PAL's larger cities getting a bonus.

PAL must have some domestic routes given that they only have 3 trade partners, and will have even more assuming they revolt to Free Market in a couple turns. But I really have no idea how to accurately predict which team would gain more, and don't feel like doing a WB test putting every city on the map...

Now of course Sullla is dead right that the sensible thing is for all teams to trade embargo the civ with the great lighthouse and a big tech lead; I'm just saying that assuming we can't get the other civs to do that, getting in on the trade ourselves might be roughly equally advantageous to both us and PAL. Then metagaming says we shouldn't as long as we perceive PAL to still be ahead. On the other hand, it's arguable that since PAL already has a next-generation military tech, something that boosts us both towards rifles faster is better for us, thinking that rifles vs. rifles and cannons is less scary than medieval vs. medieval and cannons.

[sooooo]

I don't think trade routes are bidirectional. At the start of the war with Imperio, PAL got trade routes with us but we did not get any with them.

But anyway, I don't think we can open borders with PAL since we've been telling banana to close borders for a long time and it would be hypocritical.

I am not in favour of any resource trades, even ivory for wines. Their WW will only increase, especially just after capturing a city.

[mostly-harmless]

You got it partially wrong, timmy. Trade routes are not bidirectional.
I was puzzled by the lack of trade routes with Imperio myself at first.
It is the "Sustained peace" bonus that makes international trade routes more valuable than domestic ones, not the fact that they are international.

From what I worked out the formula is like this:
floor(Base value * multiplier_population * multiplier_capital_connection * multiplier_sustained_peace * multiplier_intercontinental)

Base value = 1 + (0.1 for each pop point above 10 of the city you trade with)
multiplier_population = 5% for each pop point above 10 of your city
multiplier_capital_connection = 25% (applies if your city is connected to your capital)
multiplier_sustained_peace = 3% for each turn you are at peace with your partner civ (cap at 150%)
multiplier_intercontinental = 100%

Example for A1 <-> Banapolis:
floor(1.5 [Banapolis @ size 15] * 10% [A1 @ size 12] * 25% * 150% * 100%) = floor(5.775) = 5gpt

With Imperio we only have peace since 8 turns, so the reduced sustained_peace multiplier means they are not worth more than our domestic ones. We do have our 1 trade route with Mayapan replacing a domestic one, as Mayapans high population (1.4 base value) and the slightly increasing sustained peace factor (24%) has pulled the worth over 2gpt. We will get the next trade route with Imperio with Uxmal in 2 turns (assuming it does not grow). It is currently size 13. the increase sustained_peace factor will have put the route to 2gpt then.

As for PAL, they have the problem, that they are soon going to be at war with Banana and more importantly, we are killing of their Templar trade partners. Example: Templars losing Jericho meant a 3gpt trade route substituted by a 1gpt for PAL. Same for Jerusalem. Of course they fear that we will proceed doing like wise with the 3 remaining Templar cities.
That just leaves them with the Imperio cities. But that's just 7 trade routes. (assuming they declare on Banana, otherwise they would have another 8 trade routes with them).
We would also gain some trade routes with them, quite valuable ones as well and we are facing the same dilemma with Rabbits cities vanishing and being replaced by domestic routes.

I could run the exact numbers on who benefits the most from OB with PAL, but I am pretty sure, they will come out ahead and even if we would, I don't feel like helping them with a single gpt.

In a few turns PAL can only trade with Imperio and we can only trade with Banana.
I would not be surprised to see PAL revolting to Mercantilism instead of Free Market.

mh

[sooooo]

A draft for PAL:

Hi PAL,

Not such a productive email I'm afraid.

Resources: Our cities are relatively small and we have no happy or health problems. Thus we are not interested in a resource deal at the present time.

Open Borders: We think this will benefit you more than us, so the team have decided against opening borders.

Tech Trades: It's tricky with you having all of our techs . We are currently researching education, another tech you already have. Not sure what we're going for after that.

Sorry about that, it seems rather negative. We'll let you know if any of those situations change.

Realms Beyond

[mostly-harmless]

Given our non-relation with PAL and their support to our enemies, I actually think your draft is not negative.

I think it is fine. I t throws the ball back into their half.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Sounds fine to me.

[MyOtherCar]

For me too, I only think the ' Hi PAL' is bit too cordial

[sooooo]

Email sent.

[Iamjohn]

For me too, I only think the ' Hi PAL' is bit too cordial

I think it's a good way to start. We know we're going to have to have a fight to the death, one leaving the other stabbed in the heart dying in a pool of their own blood. But that's no reason to despise each other for it! (Too much...)

[ruff_hi]

reply from PAL

Thanks Realms,

Your message is posted in the PAL forum now. I suggested to my team
that trading tech for gold is an option. Any other ideas are welcome.
Would a Non Aggression Pact help to get the ball rolling? I don't
think our two teams have ever had an NAP in place.

-cres of PAL

[MyOtherCar]

I'm not taking a NAP with PAL!
Methinks PAL is seeing us overrunning our continent and thinking we will finish that before they do that to theirs. The only thing benefitting us would be them to stop gifting techs to our enemies.

However, with PAL having iron now, we can expect frigates on the high seas. That would be the only thing we have to fear from PAL in the short term, I believe.

P.S @Iamjohn: that was supposed to be a joke, sorry 'bout that.

[sooooo]

Well, it would be interesting to see if PAL go for astronomy next. That would show if they were interested in building frigates and attacking our seafood.

Probably we want to just ignore this message.

[mostly-harmless]

Yes, a simple "message received" will do.

mh

[Iamjohn]

P.S @Iamjohn: that was supposed to be a joke, sorry 'bout that.

nah, it's fine, mine doesn't sound as humorous as it was supposed to either.