Operation Joshua

[ruff_hi]

from reading this (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=137615, sure it is old but it sounds about right ... might have changed a bit in the patches, expansions but I don't think so), collateral damage is based on attack str v defend str (with no bonuses except barrage)

Barrage I +20%
Barrage II +30%
Barrage III +50%

So, a cat with Barrage I is str 6 v (say) longbow ... dig out the damage calculator and work out the collateral damage.

The battle order is ...
A) Cat damages 1 unit eligible for collateral damage (unit chosen at random, selected defender not eligible)
repeat for other 4 rounds of collateral
B) fight as per normal against defender

Note: Treb at Str 4 with Barrage I is 4 +20% rounded down ... ie 4. So Barrage I is pointless for a Treb.

See also here - http://home.comcast.net/~proc/civ4/combat.htm
and here http://home.comcast.net/~proc/civ4/combat_calc.htm

[Swiss Pauli]

I think sunrise has it spot on: we're not facing an AI who generally has an über-defender or two then a load of cannon fodder (only the axe falls into that category here), so we don't need CR cats to give the best chance taking down the top defender a notch or two. What we need is collateral against the spears to be able to get our Knights against the CBs/Mace.

I think I'd go for 4 bombard cats, see how much collateral 2 cats inflict then decide what to do with the final cat - bombard if we can afford to save it for the future, collateral if we need to inflict more damage at Jericho.

utterly ninja'd whilst I typed but what the hey!

[Sullla]

So Templars have added a few more units to Jericho:



They built a crossbow this turn, upgraded a spear to a pike, and pulled a second maceman out of somewhere. sunrise, any thoughts on how this changes the tactical situation? I'm pretty sure we can still win, but it may alter our decision on keeping vs. razing.

For the record, I'm still in favor of keeping Jericho if it is at all possible to do so.

[sunrise089]

We'll see how strong their units are after 2 cats attack I guess. The main change this might require is attacking with three cats rather than two.

With three cats attacking, I think we should attack with knights first. I imagine one will die to the pike, but the other two should kill the city defender crossbow and the fortified mace. Our maces will then be in good shape against the second crossbow, second mace, horse archer, axe, and 2 spears.

That's all just a sketch though...we'll take the battle slow and make decisions as they come up.

One possibility - since the southern Templar stack didn't move it might not be totally insane to attack over two turns. If, for instance, our maces do well but a pair of spears are left alive we may consider waiting a turn rather than wasting 2-3 horse archers taking out the last spears.

[Strow]

I will second that if its possible keep that city and the iron it has under it.

[Dreylin]

The central force is also marooned on its hill, so wouldn't be able to get back to defend on the second turn.

Based on Sullla'a estimate of 40-50K in their reserve, the Mace that arrived this turn is ~25% of that so there aren't many more units out there that can arrive to help.

[sunrise089]

Ok, I don't mind the time...I'm going to worldbuild a test and try out some combinations. I'll post my results soon.

[regoarrarr]

@sunrise - can you post your save so we can all try some stuff?

[sunrise089]

Ok, some results.

I created a wordbuilder file with our stack and the Templar units properly promoted. The Templar city has 20% culture and all of the units have 25% fortification, so the top defender is a tiny bit underpowered and the new units are a little overpowered.

First, let's just put city raider on every cat and attack with all of them. Result - 7 dead cats, no other losses

Second, let's try suiciding every cat and using the collareral promo. Result - 7 dead cats, but not only no other losses, but no battle below 99%

Trying the same thing but with attacking with three cats and bombarding with the rest. Result - 3 dead cats, one dead mace at 96% odds.

Attacking with only two cats - 2 dead cats, 1 dead knight, but odds were a lot worse (several battles in the 55-75% range).

Conclusion - Other than deliberately trying to loose, in my sim I can't really create a scenario where we loose more than four units. BUT if we want to remove RNG craziness we can always suicide greater number of cats and be very confident of not loosing our other units.

[sooooo]

Well. That's pretty convincing. I guess we bombard with 4 cats and suicide 3. Nice work!

Could you either post the save or run through the battles in more detail assuming 3 cats suicide? I'd be interested as to what order you attack and which units defend.

[sunrise089]

The save is posted, but generally I found you have to attack with maces first. I kept seeing knight versus pike battles at 30-45% odds versus mace versus crossbow battles at 50-70% odds. Once the first crossbow was attacked it was generally smooth (80%+) sailing for the other maces.

[regoarrarr]

A few things that are different from the save vs. the real game:

* I believe I saw that the pike does not have the 25% fortify bonus, which makes sense if it was just upgraded this turn, right?

* The city defense percentages don't line up. If we only bombard with 4 cats, we'll be at 10% bonus still

So, in the test save, I bombarded with 1 cat (dropped it to 12% - close enough), then attacked with 3 CR cats.

At that point I had knight at 51.2% vs. a 4.4/6 pike (though that would be higher odds because he shouldn't have the 25% fortify he has in the test save) and the C2 mace at 45.9% vs. a 4.9 Xbow (the one w/o CG).

At that point, I agree with sunrise that you have to go with the mace, because even if the knight beats the pike, the xbow will not defend against anything but a mace, so you're still going to have to take that 45.9% battle.

Seems like CR on the cats is the way to go - the difference between barrage and not was only 1-2HP per unit - vs/ an 8.2% chance of retreating with barrage and a 19.8% if it's CR1

[regoarrarr]

A few things that are different from the save vs. the real game:

* I believe I saw that the pike does not have the 25% fortify bonus, which makes sense if it was just upgraded this turn, right?

* The city defense percentages don't line up. If we only bombard with 4 cats, we'll be at 10% bonus still

So, in the test save, I bombarded with 1 cat (dropped it to 12% - close enough), then attacked with 3 CR cats.

At that point I had knight at 51.2% vs. a 4.4/6 pike (though that would be higher odds because he shouldn't have the 25% fortify he has in the test save) and the C2 mace at 45.9% vs. a 4.9 Xbow (the one w/o CG).

At that point, I agree with sunrise that you have to go with the mace, because even if the knight beats the pike, the xbow will not defend against anything but a mace, so you're still going to have to take that 45.9% battle.

Seems like CR on the cats is the way to go - the difference between barrage and not was only 1-2HP per unit - vs/ an 8.2% chance of retreating with barrage and a 19.8% if it's CR1

[regoarrarr]

So I'm getting a little worried about our ability to hold the city.

In the sims I was running - I had very few if any defense units (i.e. maces) available to secure the city. We can move in the (injured) knights and HAs but will that be enough to hold the city against any kind of counterattack?

[Dreylin]

Well I think that we're expecting them to have (at most) 3-4 units in reserve. We know that one is the offending Mace and the rest may be spread across Templars territory. Since they haven't moves the "harassing" stack off that hill, they wouldn't be able to get back to the city so I'm starting to agree with whomever suggested we take it slow over and attack over two turns. Any additional units they add to the city would not get fortification bonuses, and would also be vulnerable to any CR promos we have added.

Jericho finished a Crossbow this turn, what units would they be able to whip out next turn?