Operation: "Hanging Gardens"

[Sullla]

So... we now have stone, and we discover Mathematics next turn. As a civ with lots of growing cities, we would seem to be in great position to benefit from chasing after the Hanging Gardens. I've been thinking this over for a number of turns now, and I think we have an excellent chance to go after the wonder, with relatively little opportunity cost. Therefore without further ado, let me present to you a plan for Operation: Hanging Gardens.



The location has to be at Pink Dot. This is the only city with enough shields and enough forests to get the wonder out in timely fashion. I ran through the numbers, and here's what I came up with:


Plan #1
Working a 2/1 grassland forest at size 6, working the rice tile still for max growth

T112 (anarchy) Syme moves SE-NE-NE to yellow and starts chopping (3t), Parsons moves N-N-NE to white, John cottage/chopping on red (4t)

T113 Aqueduct 0/100: 7 overflow + 14 base = 21 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (3t)

T114 Aqueduct 21/100: 14 shields + 30 (chop) = 44 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (2t), John chopping (2t)

T115 Aqueduct 65/100: 14 shields added + 60 shields (2 chop) = 74 shields added
Syme moves NE-E to purple and starts chopping (3t), Parsons chopping (done), John chopping (done)

T116 Aqueduct completed, 39 overflow + 14 base = 53 * 2 = 106 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parson move N to blue, John move W to blue

T117 Hanging Gardens (106/300): 14 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 44 * 2 = 88 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (2t)

T118 Hanging Gardens (194/300): 14 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 44 * 2 = 88 shields added
Syme heads off, Parsons chopping (done), John heads off

T119 Hanging Gardens (282/300): 14 shields added = 14 * 2 = 28 shields added

T120 Hanging Gardens complete (310/300)

Comments: Not bad, but we can do things faster. Pink can easily pull more than 13 shields/turn.


Plan #2
Working a 1/2 plains forest at size 6, working the rice tile still for max growth

T112 (anarchy) Syme moves SE-NE-NE to yellow and starts chopping (3t), Parsons moves N-N-NE to white, John cottage/chopping on red (4t)

T113 Aqueduct 0/100: 7 overflow + 15 base = 22 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (3t)

T114 Aqueduct 22/100: 15 shields + 30 (chop) = 45 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (2t), John chopping (2t)

T115 Aqueduct 67/100: 15 shields added + 60 shields (2 chop) = 75 shields added
Syme moves NE-E to purple and starts chopping (3t), Parsons chopping (done), John chopping (done)

T116 Aqueduct completed, 42 overflow + 15 base = 57 * 2 = 114 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parson move N to blue, John move W to blue

T117 Hanging Gardens (114/300): 15 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 45 * 2 = 90 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (2t)

T118 Hanging Gardens (204/300): 15 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 45 * 2 = 90 shields added
Syme heads off, Parsons chopping (done), John heads off

T119 Hanging Gardens (294/300): 15 shields added = 15 * 2 = 30 shields added

T120 Hanging Gardens complete (324/300)

Comments: This is very much suboptimal. However, we can shave things down to completion on T119, by swapping out the rice tile for a plains forest tile (gaining two extra shields/turn) on only two of these turns. That would look like this:


Plan #3 (the optimized T119 plan!)
Working a 1/2 plains forest at size 6, working the rice tile for several turns then swapping to plains forest

T112 (anarchy) Syme moves SE-NE-NE to yellow and starts chopping (3t), Parsons moves N-N-NE to white, John cottage/chopping on red (4t)

T113 Aqueduct 0/100: 7 overflow + 15 base = 22 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (3t)

T114 Aqueduct 22/100: 15 shields + 30 (chop) = 45 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (2t), John chopping (2t)

T115 Aqueduct 67/100: 15 shields added + 60 shields (2 chop) = 75 shields added
Syme moves NE-E to purple and starts chopping (3t), Parsons chopping (done), John chopping (done)

T116 Aqueduct completed, 42 overflow + 15 base = 57 * 2 = 114 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parson move N to blue, John move W to blue

*Start of T117 swap rice tile to plains forest*

T117 Hanging Gardens (114/300): 17 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 47 * 2 = 94 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (2t)

T118 Hanging Gardens (208/300): 17 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 47 * 2 = 94 shields added
Syme heads off, Parsons chopping (done), John heads off

T119 Hanging Gardens complete (302/300)

Comments: If we go for the wonder, this is the plan to follow. We can squeeze more shields out of Pink, but there's really no way to complete the Gardens faster than T119.

* * * * *

Arguments in favor of going for the wonder:

+ It would really help us out! We would gain a pop point in each of our eight cities, catapulting us right up with PAL for the overall pop lead. More tiles worked (or free whips) will help our cities out by a wide margin, and we'll actually have the happiness with HR to put all those citizens to work.

+ Extra health will provide a minor boost in the mid- to late-game.

+ Low opportunity costs. We can get a very helpful wonder, and it only takes 7 turns of effort? That's definitely worth trying for!

+ Even if we miss the wonder, we still improve our overall position. A failed wonder build will give us gold (a lot of it) to speed along deficit research. And the 5 forests I've outlined for us to chop are ones that we'd want to chop anyway to eliminate cover for invading armies.

+ Like the Oracle, it only hurts us if someone else builds the wonder instead. We should try to be the ones to get the pop boost! (Disaster if PAL gets it and tacks on another 8-10 pop onto their lead.)

Arguments against going for the wonder:

- Another team might build the wonder before us. Out of the list of rivals, we know that Imperio is not building Hanging Gardens (we can see into all their core cities), and Templars are assuredly not building it either. PAL could be going for it, and they are Industrious, but they're in the middle of a major war and don't have stone. My hunch is that they'd like to build the Gardens after polishing off Rabbits. Banana is the real wild card, as they are also Industrious and probably have stone (judging by their Pyramids build). However, they only have 4 cities, so what would they gain from the wonder? Not a whole lot.

- We could use the forest chops on something else, possibly to better effect. I'm not sure what that would be exactly... but there might be a benefit to saving them for later.

- The biggie: if Templars come after us with their full army while we are building Hanging Gardens, we WILL lose the game. This is really the main reason not to try, if we believe an all-out attack from Templars is iminent in the south.

Speaking as the one who monitors the Soldier numbers though... I just don't see it. Templars are clearly not conducting any kind of military buildup right now. Their increases on the Power graph have mostly been caused by getting additional techs (Metal Casting, Machinery, Math, etc.) not building units. Plus, they just settled a new city on the other side of their territory, AND they are in discussions for an NAP with us, AND we've already agreed to an NAP up until T124. Templars do not seem like they have any intention to attack right now, unless they are pulling off a masterful job of deception, and that seems like an incredible stretch knowing their personality!

My thoughts: I think we should make the attempt. If we fail, so what? We have to take chances to try and improve our position. The only way we lose is if the Templars come after us in the immediate future, and let's be honest, we probably lose anyway if that happens... At the very least, we're going to clear out the forests around Pink with this move, and that improves our military position as well.

So weigh in and tell us what you think. We've got plenty of time (40 hours on this turn remaining) to make up our minds before next turn starts. One thing I would like to see us do: if we decide to go for the Gardens, can someone (Ruff?) please sim this out in the Worldbuilder to double-check my math? I went over it several times, but there's still a good chance I made a mistake somewhere.

We were successful with the Great Library, thanks to some excellent team planning and long-term strategy. Can we make it two in a row?

[regoarrarr]

I'm for it.

[ruff_hi]

I took a quick look over and the maths works. I haven't checked the worker movement.

Q: What happens if we whip when it is at 67/100 hammers. That whip will generate 30 hammers, the 15 per turn production will drop but how quickly will PD grow back and what happens to the whip overflow when it rolls into a wonder?

[Zeviz]

I like this idea.

As for the possibility of Templars going after us, they will not do it before turn 124. (Roleplaying honorable knights.) Even after that, immediate attack is unlikely.

[sunrise089]

Main opportunity cost is several near-instant units courtesy of the chops...but this gets the forests gone sooner and we can always convert free population to troops as well, with the health boost as a kicker. I'm fine with the plan.

[Swiss Pauli]

I took a quick look over and the maths works. I haven't checked the worker movement.

Q: What happens if we whip when it is at 67/100 hammers. That whip will generate 30 hammers, the 15 per turn production will drop but how quickly will PD grow back and what happens to the whip overflow when it rolls into a wonder?

I agree that we should whip the aqueduct. I guess we'll want to micro a 2 pop whip for max overflow into HG, which is then doubled by stone. We'll rapidly return to size 5 where we can max out hammers by switching the rice to a grass hill.

[Swiss Pauli]

PAL could be going for it, and they are Industrious, but they're in the middle of a major war and don't have stone. My hunch is that they'd like to build the Gardens after polishing off Rabbits.

Actually, PAL *does* have Stone, but I think you're right about it not being a priority for them. Less, perhaps, to do with the war, but more that they're MP guys and less wonder-focused in their general play. In any event, denial to PAL is a big enough reason to try for the Wonder.

[sunrise089]

Ehh....I don't like PAL having stone, and if it weren't for the war I'd change my vote. PAL did pick their leader for a reason. Now yes, it was probably primarily for the UU, but they obviously valued Ramses' Indy over Hatty's Creative.

My general sense in the future is that we should only attempt wonders in the future if we have a resource modifier the Indy teams don't, or if it becomes obvious the Indy teams are a non-factor and we can beat out the other teams.

[Swiss Pauli]

My general sense in the future is that we should only attempt wonders in the future if we have a resource modifier the Indy teams don't, or if it becomes obvious the Indy teams are a non-factor and we can beat out the other teams.

I think your logic is wrong here: if we have a wonder-resource, we *should* compete with the IND civs who also have the resource because their IND bonus gets watered down from 50% to net 25%. PAL will produce 2.5 to our 2.0 for HG, rather than 1.5 to 1 hammers (for GLight). Thus it's the 'undoubled' Wonders we should (by default) skip.

[Sullla]

If someone wants to redo the math to include a whip, feel free to go for it. I'm not convinced it's needed or desired here though... but then again, it looks like I don't whip cities nearly as often as some others here. Have to decide quickly though, since this plan includes worker actions taking place next turn.

I agree with Swiss Pauli that the wonder resources being plentiful is a great advantage for us. If everyone has marble and stone, Industrious is virtually worthless aside from the cheap forges.

[mostly-harmless]

I am for it.
The biggest risk I see is PAL completing the wonder. That would be a disaster and a another nail in everybody's coffin after the Lighthouse. So we have to go for it. If all goes well, e should have a line of sight into one of PAL core coastal cities (one of the likely candidates for the Lighthouse in 5 turns with the galley on T115 (and therefor C&D knowledge of hpt).

Banana has one strong incentive to go for the wonder. It would increase their Great Engineer points!

Is Airstrip One another possibility to go for the HG? We have three full size chops left (60h each) and after Bureaucracy we get 50% hammers increase for a total of, what 52hpt, with a little starvation?
It would "pollute" our Great Scientist pool but only with Great Engineer points.

mh

[Sullla]

It's a good idea, but Airstrip One is out for three reasons:

- Not wanting to pollute the Great Scientist pool (as already stated)
- Workers are out of position, and need to connect wines at the moment
- We want (need?) to focus on commerce and growth right now

Of course, it would still be worth doing if we had no other possible sites, but Pink fits really nicely and can get the wonder done just as quickly.

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, Pink Dot it is then.
Fingers crossed.

mh

[Sullla]

Alright! If we're going to do this, and it sounds like we are, make sure that everyone has the same plan in mind, and that the steps are followed carefully. (I tried to make things as clear as possible, but the workers have to move onto very specific tiles to get it all to work out.) Please try to have someone sim this out to double-check that the math works. Designate an official temporary turn player for this upcoming week, stick to the plan, and go for it!

Repeated here to avoid confusion:



Plan #3 (the optimized T119 plan!)
Working a 1/2 plains forest at size 6, working the rice tile for several turns then swapping to plains forest

T112 (anarchy) Syme moves SE-NE-NE to yellow and starts chopping (3t), Parsons moves N-N-NE to white, John cottage/chopping on red (4t)

T113 Aqueduct 0/100: 7 overflow + 15 base = 22 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (3t)

T114 Aqueduct 22/100: 15 shields + 30 (chop) = 45 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (2t), John chopping (2t)

T115 Aqueduct 67/100: 15 shields added + 60 shields (2 chop) = 75 shields added
Syme moves NE-E to purple and starts chopping (3t), Parsons chopping (done), John chopping (done)

T116 Aqueduct completed, 42 overflow + 15 base = 57 * 2 = 114 shields added
Syme chopping (2t), Parson move N to blue, John move W to blue

*Start of T117 swap rice tile to plains forest*

T117 Hanging Gardens (114/300): 17 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 47 * 2 = 94 shields added
Syme chopping (done), Parsons chopping (3t), John chopping (2t)

T118 Hanging Gardens (208/300): 17 shields added + 30 shields (chop) = 47 * 2 = 94 shields added
Syme heads off, Parsons chopping (done), John heads off

T119 Hanging Gardens complete (302/300)

[ruff_hi]

when does the current turn end? I just thought of another whip option ... whip the granary now, with the overflow going into the aqua-duck.

I'll update our sandbox game for PDs current config, worker positions and run some tests.