Culture Flip Formula

[Fitz]

*curses after reading Deep's post*

Yeah, looks like it is ((N+S)*C*H)-T*R)/D Unless he f***ed it up. Beacuse 2*2 (2 citizens * 2 for culture in city) is 4, and 14/3.5 is 4.

Will edit the fist post to reflect this.

[DeepO]

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Fitz
Yeah, looks like it is ((N+S)*C*H)-T*R)/D Unless he f***ed it up. Beacuse 2*2 (2 citizens * 2 for culture in city) is 4, and 14/3.5 is 4.

Well... it could still be the second formula: 4*3.5-14 gives again 0, so if the human players culture was less then 3.5 times the AI's, there is a slight chance in flipping. the only difference between my two formulae is how big the chance is, and as it changes with a factor of R^2 this is rather significant.
My bet is also on the first one, though

DeepO

[Fitz]

Actually, I realized as I was editing the first post that this has a profound affect on the whole reason for posting the formula. The primary reason for knowing the formula is so you can figure out how many troops you would need to prevent or severely hamper a culture flip, not to figure the actuall % chance of a flip. Since it now includes a number that can only estimated, you can only estimate the number of troops. I find that very annoying.

In point of fact, in a recent game I just started I have a culture of ~10 to 1 to most other civs. Now, that could be anywhere from as little as 8 or as much as 12. Now I have no idea if I can hold a size 5 captured city (more culture than me in city) with 1 troop, or if I need more.

Still this is a pretty huge discovery. Before I would have thought I needed 10 troops to hold that size 5 captured city. Now I know have a larger culture, I can possibly use less (5 at 2:1, 1 at 10:1). Definately an improvement, and definately to your advantage if you have more culture.

Conversely, this would explain why people who play on harder levels are annoyed by culture flips, and those one easier levels probably less annoyed. The harder level you play, the more chance the AI has a greater national culture than you, and thus you need many more troops to squash a flip or seriously impact it. I can certainly understand complaints about 20 troops not preventing a flip now. If you were in a size 5 city, they would be insufficient if the AI had more than 2x your culture.

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Fitz
Actually, I realized as I was editing the first post that this has a profound affect on the whole reason for posting the formula. The primary reason for knowing the formula is so you can figure out how many troops you would need to prevent or severely hamper a culture flip, not to figure the actuall % chance of a flip. Since it now includes a number that can only estimated, you can only estimate the number of troops. I find that very annoying.

I know, I already mentioned that. (maybe not so clear, though). Plus, to counter Coracle's usual whining, it makes totalCulture one of the most important factors for flipping, not distance to the capital. In combination with troops, of course...

Conversely, this would explain why people who play on harder levels are annoyed by culture flips, and those one easier levels probably less annoyed. The harder level you play, the more chance the AI has a greater national culture than you, and thus you need many more troops to squash a flip or seriously impact it. I can certainly understand complaints about 20 troops not preventing a flip now. If you were in a size 5 city, they would be insufficient if the AI had more than 2x your culture.

So again, it makes culture an even more important aspect of CivIII. ATM, I'm playing at emperor, and while it is virtually impossible to get more culture than the AI in the ancient era, I never have a ration less then 1/2 to the Babylonians (which, most of the times, are kings of culture). Knowing this, I will gladly sacrifice building a few settlers to building temples ASAP. Apart from having a better chance of winning cities, at least you won't loose any...

Building culture so early is very important, as after 1000 years all buildings produce double culture. Normally, this only takes places with a few temples and libraries at the end of the game, if you could have double counting temples before 1 AD, they're VERY important later on. I used to think this was only needed if you planned for a cultural victory (as you have to have double the culture of the second in place), but it seems everybody should do it, if they want to hold on to their cities!

DeepO

[Soren Johnson]

Originally posted by Fitz


Regardless, SOREN IF YOU ARE LISTENING PLEASE TELL US WHICH WAY IT WORKS. Important info.

actually, the troops will count for each flip probability roll. In other words, if the city has a Greek and French citizen (you being Roman), one spearman could negate both the Greek and the French citizen.

[DeepO]

Soren, thanks for that (so I was right ), is the rest of the formula correct? Or did we still miss something?

DeepO

[Fitz]

Thanks Soren. I really appreciate you taking the time to answer that. It would be cool if you could tell us if the culture ratio affects the # of troops (as in my revised formula) or the number of squares and citizens (as in DeepO's posed formula). I just realized how important that is in determining the chance of a flip.

In the case of: ((N+S)*C*H - T*R) the culture ratio only has an affect if you actually have any troops at all, other wise it has none.

In the case of ((N+S)*C*H*R - T) the culture ratio always has an afffect on the chance of a flip, regardless of the presence of troops.

In case Soren can't take the time to answer, I think we can assume the latter. I can't see that he would set it up so that culture's importance is totally negated by lack of troops. I will edit the first page formula to reflect this change.

[Capt Dizle]

edited out...

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Fitz
In the case of: ((N+S)*C*H - T*R) the culture ratio only has an affect if you actually have any troops at all, other wise it has none.

In the case of ((N+S)*C*H*R - T) the culture ratio always has an afffect on the chance of a flip, regardless of the presence of troops.

In case Soren can't take the time to answer, I think we can assume the latter. I can't see that he would set it up so that culture's importance is totally negated by lack of troops. I will edit the first page formula to reflect this change.

darn... I have to give it to you, you sure know how to foresee consequences of a certain formula! You are right, I think, culture should have an impact on the foreing citizens+tiles, not the troops.

But, doesn't this mean the chance is getting too small to explain the number of flips we see in games? We do know that the capitalfactor should be 2000 if the city is in the middle of the two capitals, given the example of 4 C+S, double foreign city culture, double YourTotalCulture, no WLTKD or revolt, 2 troops it only gives 0.1% chance (as opposed to 0.4% with formula 1). Is this realistic?

Possibly Soren hasn't thought about it so much as we have the past few hours (and it still is formula 1)

DeepO

[Lucilla]

Edited out, because jimmytrick's post has been edited out as well

[Cyclotron]

Originally posted by jimmytrick
Witholding the formula as Soren has, dropping hints, and generally frustrating fans shows the PR mindset of Firaxis.

Soren, you need to grow up.

Uhhh... Soren was the one who gave us this formula in the first place. Within a few hours, he responded to the questions on the thread. This is pretty damn good PR, if you ask me...

Now, I have a new list. I'll check the game credit and if Soren is shown, I won't buy.

Good for you.

[DeepO]

jimmytrick, could you please shut up? Soren is not required in any way to give this info, he is not under Apolyton contract... and we had a nice thread going. Guessing could be a fun game, you know.

okay, it would be very cool if he could just give this formula (and other things too), but why would he do it if every time he answers a question at least someone shows up to bad mouth him? That was not really a constructive post to this thread.

DeepO

[Fitz]

Sorry, in the situation you describe I get .7% with (4*2*1*2 - 2)/2000 and .35% with (4*2*1 - 2/2)/2000. Still small, yes, but I almost never see flips myself until we talk about a situation like this:

Greek city, size 10, recently conquered, 3 squares out of 21 in Greek border, ~1.5:1 culture (mine higher), 3 garrison units. Distance easily 4 times closer to their capitol (assume D=500)

((10+3)*2*2/1.5 - 3)/500 = 6.3%

I can't remember how long it took to flip (1 turn or three), but in three turns, the chance of flip is: 100% - (100%-6.3%)^3 = 17.8%. Maybe that is a little low, but remember I'm still pulling the 1.5:1 ratio form memory. May have been as high as 2:1 against me.

jt: Thanks man. I appreciate the fact that you are willing to respond to politely worded private requests.

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Fitz
Sorry, in the situation you describe I get .7% with (4*2*1*2 - 2)/2000 and .35% with (4*2*1 - 2/2)/2000. Still small, yes, but I almost never see flips myself until we talk about a situation like this:

I stated YourCulture (so I meant human culture) twice enemyCulture, giving (4*2*1/2-2)/2000=0.1% as opposed to (4*2*1-2*2)/2000=0.2%... I agree I was wrong with the second part

Greek city, size 10, recently conquered, 3 squares out of 21 in Greek border, ~1.5:1 culture (mine higher), 3 garrison units. Distance easily 4 times closer to their capitol (assume D=500)

((10+3)*2*2/1.5 - 3)/500 = 6.3%

I can't remember how long it took to flip (1 turn or three), but in three turns, the chance of flip is: 100% - (100%-6.3%)^3 = 17.8%. Maybe that is a little low, but remember I'm still pulling the 1.5:1 ratio form memory. May have been as high as 2:1 against me.

I agree.... wait a moment, shouldn't resisting citizens count double? I remember something like that from Dan's thread a while ago. This would make it even more acceptable.

just a sec, I'll look it up
DeepO