Does Sid Meier Believe In Predestination?

[Lancer]

Pingu, I've likely got elements of this all wrong but predestination is the theory that God knows all and therefore nothing is unknown to him including the future. Therefore all we do and are going to do is already set and we can not change it. Some people believe that, others don't, but whatever it seemed a good analogy to the idea that the fix is in regarding civilization and Civilization 3.

Guys, the advise of bombarding first and on how to attack so as to achieve my objectives is much appreciated but not needed. I'm talking about something else entirely. Whether or not you bombard and thereby weaken a defender the fix will be in according to my theory. The notion that the odds are being played with is uneffected by the mode of attack.

I believe the aim of the designers is to reduce the streaks of good or bad luck and perhaps to reduce the advantage of humans to execute strategy and thereby upset play balance. Another more remote possibility is to aid human strategy when it is not even up to that of the AI.

Murtin... ...you might be right but I doubt it. However your point is well made. Ever played Colonization? That was predestination defined. The fix was in so strongly in that game that it robbed the enjoyment. It is banished to an exterior storage shed and its next move will be to oblivion.

[Grumbold]

If you mean me, I was directly responding to Dry on the merits of using vets over elites of the same type of unit.

I reject your streak-balance theory as fantasy and won't be talking about it ever again unless a serious statistical proof is posted that seems to support it

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Lancer
I believe the aim of the designers is to . . . upset play balance.

Hmmm. Anyway, your argument is a variation of the gamblers fallacy. A shuffled deck of cards are "predetermined" but poker is still a game of chance, and any reasonable strategy must account for the "odds."

[Dry]

Originally posted by Grumbold
From the midgame onward I'd always try and get the enemy dow to 1-2 hp from bombardment, then send in the vets to try and get them a promotion.

I build no catapult nor canon, because their attack range is too short, and without RR, it take ages before they reach the front.
I have almost no artillery (captured ones only) because they are too slow for my cavalry. If I wait for them, the ennemy city has time to reinforce.
I build a few bombers to help on real hot spots and against ennemy ships bombing my shores.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Dry

I build no catapult nor canon, because their attack range is too short, and without RR, it take ages before they reach the front.
I have almost no artillery (captured ones only) because they are too slow for my cavalry. If I wait for them, the ennemy city has time to reinforce. I build a few bombers to help on real hot spots and against ennemy ships bombing my shores.

That is certainly a legitimate strategy, especially if you are ahead and can produce sufficient forces. But if you are behind, or in a challenging position, and need a hedge, bombard is the solution.

I took out a metropolis on a hill full of infantry using riflemen as I didn't have horse. As you probably know, that position would be nearly impossible even with cavalry. Admittedly, I wouldn't have even tried, but I had my troops in position just when they upgraded to infantry. Boy, was I surprised!

[Murtin]

Originally posted by Lancer

Murtin... ...you might be right but I doubt it. However your point is well made. Ever played Colonization? That was predestination defined. The fix was in so strongly in that game that it robbed the enjoyment. It is banished to an exterior storage shed and its next move will be to oblivion.

Yes, I did play Colonization a lot. But if anyone had brought it to my attention back in 1995 when I played it the most, I think I would have been more susceptible to the idea of a streak enhancing fix being present in the game than a streak reducing one.

In retrospect my susceptibility to the idea of there being a fix, whether streak enhancing or reducing, was of course more due to the fact that back then I was less educated regarding both probability theory and psychology. Now I completely dismiss the idea of any fix, both in Civ3 and Colonization. Pending any statistical evidence, of course.

[Blaupanzer]

Utter poppycock. Even a predetermined seed does not "guarentee" any outcome in a randomly selected battle. The same battle coming out the same way reload after reload, as noted by several players, would indicate the presence of such a seed. However, the seed effect is for that battle. If you know your cavalry will lose because you reloaded, then you can indeed reset the seed by attacking with another unit. But if you don't reload due to battle outcomes (a definite "cheat"), then the odds are affected mostly by the controlled nature of that seed-setting process. In other words, go with your best attackers if the odds are in their favor; don't attack at all if you can't get a positive edge in the odds. Sheesh, what a superstitious lot we all are.

[Lancer]

Utter poppycock blueplanter! I'm not talking about THAT! Now take your seeds and plant em in your (deleted)

To the 'prove it' crowd, Grumbold, Murtin... etc, I just have this notion and no head for math... I can't shake you in your rather unobservant convictions by producing the figures you need, nor will you join me in my unsubstanciated faith. You guys can't shake me in that faith since you seem unwilling to back up your vague ideas that the fix is not in with solid statistical facts printed nice.

Anyhoo, we had a nice chat and nobody was too harshly shaken in the foundations of their unsubstanciated convictions so let us end this here for that reason and because Firaxis has wired me a substancial amount of dough to shut the heck up. (Just kidding)

[Murtin]

Originally posted by Lancer

You guys can't shake me in that faith since you seem unwilling to back up your vague ideas that the fix is not in with solid statistical facts printed nice.

Nice try. Unfortunately, there's no way (save access to the full Civ3 source code) to prove the nonexistence of such a fix. What you can do with statistics is show that the probability that a particular set of events is completely due to randomness is very low. But as the proponent of the "streak reducing fix theory" that is your job.