Forest is never an improvement
In Civ3 you have 3 improvements: mine, irrigation, and road or rail.
means that a given city's production is fixed and the only optimising possible can be done by a butt simple worker algorithm.
There is no room for quality in developing cities.
The corruption model does stop this from being a geometric expansion
End result, you either accept the AI is going to "pollute" your kingdom with its suicidal cities or you expand everywhere you can as well.
One thing I have noticed about the AI's expansion though is if you look at its pattern of city deployment it never leaves any gaps and it always has a full border (i.e. without any landing points) along all its coasts.
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