Spearman vs. Tank Probability

[vmxa1]

Well at 99% I would quibble with the "cuts off a number of it's own path to victory". How many were left after 99. something?

[Boracks]

Originally posted by Theseus
Although I truly am fine with the current combat system, I just HAD to vote for bananas.

There's all this justification about tank traps, molotov cocktails, etc. Screw that... the crafty Spearman snuck up in the middle of the night, crammed a bunch of banana peels in the tank's gas tank, and put the pointy end of the stick in the driver when he got out to figure out what the heck was going on.

(The Spearman obviously being a 'poly regular.)

I hadn't voted but upon seeing this, I had to vote for bananananas as well.

[The Mad Monk]

It seems to me that a prectical solution for the current game is to go into the editor, and give every unit a five-point boost. That will help the odds be more predictable by forcing more iterations. It will also diminish the impact experience level has -- I don't know if that would be considered good or bad.

[Aqualung71]

Well I think we're getting into semantics now, because you've introduced a third possibility - nobody wins.....which of course, reduces the chance that either will win and either will lose.

But if we look at it in terms of "what is the likelihood of the Tank being killed?" in either scenario, then the retreat ability of the Tank reduces that likelihod, and that was the basis for my answer.

So I guess I didn't read the question properly

[Tall Stranger]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
It seems to me that a prectical solution for the current game is to go into the editor, and give every unit a five-point boost. That will help the odds be more predictable by forcing more iterations. It will also diminish the impact experience level has -- I don't know if that would be considered good or bad.

I think the problem with such a "solution" is that it immediately skews the probabilities heavily in favor of the higher value unit. If you set aside the retreat factor, than vmxa1's figure of 99.4% chance of victory for a vet tank attacking an unfortified vet spearman on plains is correct. I'm not going to try to run the numbers, but I'd guess that adding 5 hp to all units will cut the spearman's odds considerably (pushing it to, say, 99.7% chance of loss). That amounts to a 50% reduction in its already-dismal chance of victory. How much more "predictable" do you need?

Your proposal ALSO greatly weakens the value of regular, veteran and elite units. Currently, veteran units have twice the hp of conscripts (and thus a much higher chance of victory). Under your system, they would have about 29% more hp, making them significantly less valuable.

I honestly can not understand why this remains such a burning issue for some people. I've played countless games, and I don't think I've ever lost anything higher than a cav or an infantry to a spearman. If losing a single tank to a spearman is the biggest setback you suffer in a game, you need to move to a higher difficulty level.

[vmxa1]

TS sometime people just like to debate. I have not see this occur since the vanilla release of CivIII. I think you can say that covers a lot of civ.