Spearman vs. Tank Probability

[Aqualung71]

Re: Democracy has spoken!

Originally posted by bvoncranium
Well after 83 votes and around 900 views the results are resoundingly decisive:

From this vote I'd conclude that:
1) Firaxis/Atari won't do much to change the combat math
2) They may have to put more bananas in the game, given the influential nature of that part of the vote.

Your most humble pundit - bvc

Although I'm not American, my conclusioin is a little different......

Bananas = Ralph Nader

[Executor]

I just had a veteran battleship (unharmed at start) lose when attacking a veteran galleon. Makes me wish I still had my Civ2 CD. Why the hell did they remove those extra stats (firepower?) when creating Civ3?

[vmxa1]

You can get Test Of Time. But seriously, I thought I would be able to post my modern armour losing to a spear from last night.
It drop two hit points right away, but rallied back to defeat this uber spear. It is rather rare to fight a spear, but once in a while you find a civ that did not upgrade or was just isolated very early and allowed to hang on.
It would have been very funny.

[LzPrst]

hmmm uuh hmmm all this sounds fun, but we do miss a point: How on earth can a tank atack a spearman? Seriously this thing is ILLOGICAL what they kept their spear guys on stasis aborad the enterprise? or in ancient history museum and were revived when the tank came! I don't mind when the spear dude kills my tank I laugh at it but what i get upset about is how they left that nonsence continune in the game!

read your history children. When italy invaded ethiopia they had a few tanks and the defenders (outside the capital where there were riflemen) were mostly spearmen. ACTUAL SPEARMEN! and they defeated the tanks from time to time. apparently there was a report by an italian soldier of ethiopian warriors running up to the side of a tank and ripping of the tracks with their bare hands...
goooooo ethernopians! though the italians were never big on war after 200 AD

[vmxa1]

Why read history as we have seen what update infantry can do with MA in IROQ, nothing.

[bvoncranium]

Executor elocuted:
I just had a veteran battleship (unharmed at start) lose when attacking a veteran galleon.

Are you sure the galleon wasn't The Black Pearl? :-)

[Fatwreck]

I voted never, because now the AI actually upgrades its units so we don´t have to face the problem anymore!

[Flip McWho]

Unless your so far in front of your opponent that they don't have anything better.

[Fatwreck]

then you need to go up a difficulty level

[Flip McWho]

But it's easy where I'm at now

[bvoncranium]

Skill-Testing Tank vs Spear Question

Skill-testing question for you sharp math-types:

If you compare the probability of the Tank winning in Case#1 and Case#2 below, does it have the same chance of winning? If not, which probability of winning is greater?

Case#1: A veteran Tank on the Plains attacks an unfortified veteran Spearman on an adjacent Plains, with no improvements (town, radar, etc) or advantageous terrain (river) involved.
Unit Attack = 16, Unit Defense = 2

Case#2: A veteran Spear on the Plains attacks an unfortified veteran Tank on an adjacent Plains, with no improvements (town, radar, etc) or advantageous terrain (river) involved.
Unit Attack = 1, Unit Defense = 8

If needed, I'll post the correct answer in the coming week.
Have fun - bvc

[vmxa1]

Case 1 att wins 99.4$

Case 2 att win .25%

Not much difference.

[bvoncranium]

Close vmxa1. Bonus points for replying first.
There's a subtle variation that goes beyond plugging the stats into a combat probability program or utility though...
BTW, more bonus points for anyone who can explain the differences between the outcomes for the two cases.
- bvc

[Aqualung71]

Originally posted by bvoncranium

BTW, more bonus points for anyone who can explain the differences between the outcomes for the two cases.
- bvc

• 10% defender bonus for plains - Defending Tank gets more bonus than defending Spear. So case 1 is 16 vs 2.2 and case 2 is 1 vs 8.8;
• Tank has retreat ability of (I think) 67% for veteran.

[bvoncranium]

Thriller's right:

• 10% defender bonus for plains - Defending Tank gets more bonus than defending Spear. So case 1 is 16 vs 2.2 and case 2 is 1 vs 8.8;
• Tank has retreat ability of (I think) 67% for veteran.

It is the Tank's retreat probability that, strangely enough, reduces the probability of a win for the Spearman AND for the Tank.

One way to describe it is:

a) With no retreat, there are 8 possible outcomes for this battle in terms of hp for each unit, each with a certain probability. The sum of probabilities in this case line up with vmxa1's post.

b) With retreat, there are 12 possible outcomes for the battle in terms of hp for each unit. In the 4 cases wherein the Spear has been lucky enough to take the Tank to 1 hp, the Tank has a good chance of withdrawing, which drastically reduces the Spear's real chance of victory. Also in the 4 cases wherein the Tank goes to 1 hp and retreats, it cuts off a number of it's own paths to victory, thereby reducing its total chance for victory.
The net effect is that both units have a lower chance of victory than in the no-retreat case, with the difference taken up by the probability that no-one wins (4 retreat outcomes).

If anyone is interested I can post the math at a later date.

What's more pertinent is:
1) The Tank's chance of winning is very high.
2) The Tank's chance of surviving is even higher.
3) The Tank's chance of losing is extremely small - if this happens to you, and there are no mitigating factors, you have no luck at all.

Go get 'dem Spearfolk! - bvc