Top Secret - New Alliance

[Beta]

Me neither. There is the positive read that they have decided to be good friends with us. Or, on the darker side - he is trying to set us against RP and GS - two teams that we have been on fairly good relations with.

[Jon Miller]

against GS to be sure

he brought that up

Jon miller

[Beta]

And one other thing about RP - Ghengis says that they have tons of land - and 4 luxuries. He says they are the civ to watch out for.

If they all have so much land - why are they upset with us grabbing a small corner?

[mjmacy]

We should be very carful entering into an alliance with GOW against GS. Seems to me GS has been up front and a good friend while GOW has been misleading.

[mjmacy]

However, if they are bieng up front with us and this secret allaince works it could and mostly likely would be a huge payoff.
Just think.

All of Estonia under the brilliant leadership of VOX.
"We love the VOX parade's all across Estonia.

[Beta]

Aye - that's the rub. Are they being up front with us?

The more I look at it - the more I am convinced we can catch GS with their pants down on this. But if GoW backs out - or tips off GS - then eeek. It would be gruesome.

[HarryH]

let us explore a little more, I would like to know more about the size of Estonia.

Do you mean Bob? Estonia is our continent. We have an agreement with GS that we will not go down there. If we try to explore it will let GS know that something is up. As for sizes, unless we take a major piece of Bob, I think the GS area will provide more land than the little corner of Bob we were looking at. GS has been quietly expanding the whole game and we are only now starting to see the edge of their border. They have flood plains so their expansion rate should be pretty good.

[HarryH]

Bob is really big. There is jungle separating RP from the other teams. I'm from Lux so i know.

Bob may be big but the land in the north may not be that great. Look at what we have uncovered so far. Lots of hills with no iron plus some plains with one cow. It reminds me of what we have around Miller Town. I think GS has better land. Besides, once we have taken over GS and switch our attack to RP, we could end up with some cities that will provide a foothold on Bob (if we decide not to give those cities away).

[HarryH]

GoW or GS? Bob or Estonia? Big equation. Lots of variables.

Can we trust GoW? They have been shifty in their tech deals and they try to get all they can in a trade. It just shows that they are serious about the game. When I joined and was doing some catch-up reading I made a note about GoW and GS that they may not get along. It had something to do with GF and I think Togas but I do not remember, nor do I have that note with me. I think GF really wants to see GS dissappear. Yes, we can trust them (at least in this matter).

Can we trust GS? We have been, but should we? GS has been very nice with our tech arrangement but there are these little things that make me suspicious of them. Way back in the early FA thread there were two things they said during a chat that caught my attention. One was when they asked about our luxury situation. They were very specific about finding out what we had. When Jon told them we had just one they said something about it is possible but didn't offer any explanation, nor did they offer up information about the luxuries they have. There should be two sets of luxuries on this continent. We can see on our map there is another incense down south. I suspect they have the rest of our incense plus another set of luxuries. The other thing that got my attention is they asked out our goals in the game. They wanted to know if we would be a vassal state for them. It would be like providing them with a free Forbidden Palace. Jon said no, we were playing to win. Their statement made me feel that GS did not take Vox seriously. Couple that with the tech deal and I feel that we will be around only as long as it suits GS's purpose. We have been up front in our dealings with GS since that arrangement was signed. We have even given them contact with the Bob civs. They have not been as straight with us. They demanded that we give them half the Lux gold saying it was a "tech" deal when no techs were involved (and they did not consider the costs of us loaning the city which should have been subtracted from the amount). Based on a statement from Lego that we will be getting contact and the latest info that we will be getting Construction and Currency through GS, I believe GS already has contact with Lego and they have not given it to us. Call me paranoid but I think GS is setting up a three way with us and Lego while GS maintains control of it. GS has not been very happy with our research rate. They may be thinking that Lego will be a better partner and we may be on the way out. We shouldn't put too much trust in GS. They are using us and will continue to do so as long as it suits their needs.

Which war will be easier? GS. We are on the bottom of the score rank, GoW is in the middle, and the rest, including GS, are close together at the top. Looking at the histograph on power we are all fairly equal (expect we have no info on Lego). On the culture histograph GS is the lowest. I believe GS has been busy with their expansion and their high score is due to population. If they do indeed have two luxuries they probably don't need temples. If they have been directing their resources into settlers and workers and packing their cities close together they don't need culture to cover tiles. The military advisor says we are week against everyone except for GS where it says average. Since there has been no real threat to them they probably have not been building a military. Quite the contrary is true of the Bob civs. They have already fought a war and there was mention of swordsmen during the save Lux operation. They also want war. After we saved Lux there was a post that said ND was disappointed because they wanted to get a leader. Transporting units to Bob will be a lot harder than fighting on our own continent. I don't think GS would help us on Bob. It would take resources away from their expansion. Being the proud builders they are, I doubt Lego would join the conflict. With good defensive positions we could hold out against two or even three civs but we would not be able to expand with all the military activity in the area. We would end up putting a lot of resources into the war with little to show for it. This would only help GS and Lego get farther ahead of the rest of us. A war with GS will be quicker, far less costly, and with a lot more to gain than fighting on Bob.

We are resource poor. . We have seen no iron or luxuries yet on Bob. We have only one luxury and our iron is distant and vulnerable by an attack from GS, and we have no horses. Can you see GS sending knights or later cavalry into our iron deposits and all we can come back with is longbowmen. GS has not been quick to claim the iron near Dissidentville. Either they don't need it because they have another source, which would be nice to have, or they are not building any swordsmen, which will make for an easy war. Unless there is a resource paradise on Bob that we have not found, we will get more from southern Estonia. We already know GS has flood plains for good growth.

After it is all over, maintaining and protecting all of Estonia will be a lot easier than shuttling units back and forth between continents. Any continental wonders we manage to build will provide more benefit if we control all of Estonia.

What is hard to evaluate is what happens outside the game. How will Lego react to us attacking GS? If GS is making a tech agreement with them as well, Lego may come to their aid. We would need to make this a quick war before Lego has the chance to get units to Estonia. Once we have conquered GS will Lego be willing to deal with us? How about GoW and ND? ND has been uncooperative so far. Will the two civs on Bob live happily ever after or will they have a tif and end up as one big civ. Maybe they will decide they want more than just Bob. Will we be next? Maybe everyone will be happy with the resulting balance and unwilling to risk war. It could be a big race to space.

That last part if very hard to gauge. Everything before it add up to attacking GS. Did I forget anything?

If GS has been REXing and not building a military then time is of the essence. Now that we can see their border they may not have much REXing left. Add that to being close to switching to Republic and they may be getting ready to start building fast. And we need to be very careful so GS does not get wind of this.

The hard part will be timing it with the tech trade. Does our agreement include a non-aggression pact? If so, we should cancel it but that will give GS a warning that something is up and give them time to prepare for war. If we don't cancel it then we become a back-stabbing deal breaker. If the agreement does not include a non-aggression pack then I don't see the need to cancel it first. After all, with their quicker research rate if they happen to discover a tech while we are still at war I would be willing to accept it.

Wow. What a weekend for me to decide to get active in posting. I guess this is why I made it to Warlord. I hope you guys are not getting tired of reading all my writing.

[HarryH]

It had something to do with GF and I think Togas but I do not remember, nor do I have that note with me. I think GF really wants to see GS dissappear. Yes, we can trust them (at least in this matter).

I found the spot in the old FA thread. The problem was with RP not GS. I still think GoW wants GS out of the picture since they are one of the top civs.

[HarryH]

One was when they asked about our luxury situation. They were very specific about finding out what we had. When Jon told them we had just one they said something about it is possible but didn't offer any explanation, nor did they offer up information about the luxuries they have. There should be two sets of luxuries on this continent.

I found the spot in the chat in the old FA thread where Jon and Nathan talked about luxuries. Here it is.

nbarclay> Would you mind exchanging information about what luxuries each side has? We'd proposed that when we first met, but you didn't seem interested at the time.
Jon_Miller> we don't have extra
Jon_Miller> we will have extra iron though
nbarclay> Furs and/or incense, or something else?
Jon_Miller> something else
Jon_Miller> I think...
Jon_Miller>
Jon_Miller> nope, not something else
nbarclay> But just one in your whole area? That sounds odd.
Jon_Miller> we don't have much area
nbarclay> Still, it doesn't usually take much area with the map generator's algorithms.
nbarclay> As I said, odd.

Note that Nathan mentioned furs and incense but he never really said that they had them. He also said that they wanted to exchange luxury information but he never really said what they have.

I think GS has both furs and insense and they have not made any offer to share them.

[mjmacy]

Originally posted by HarryH

Do you mean Bob? Estonia is our continent. We have an agreement with GS that we will not go down there. If we try to explore it will let GS know that something is up. As for sizes, unless we take a major piece of Bob, I think the GS area will provide more land than the little corner of Bob we were looking at. GS has been quietly expanding the whole game and we are only now starting to see the edge of their border. They have flood plains so their expansion rate should be pretty good.

I meant with a galley around the continent.
is that against our agreement?

[HarryH]

I finally found the formal trade agreement with GS:

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=1716466#post1716466

There is no mention of non-aggression in the agreement.

[mjmacy]

Great posts Harry. I see what you are saying about the best target for us. I agree that GS would be the best target, if GOW is being truthful. I guess I'm paranoid but I don't really trust GOW, I feel they may use this secret alliance agianst us. either telling GS about it in order to break up our tech trading, or use the possible WAR to get a foothold on Estonia for themselves.

[HarryH]

Maybe I am being a little paranoid about GS. Some of the things I picked up on could have been simple oversites. I don't know. I think our situation comes down to this:

1. We pull back from Bob and stay in our half of Estonia while keeping our tech agreement in place with GS. This will leave us as a last rate power. Assuming someone doesn't think we are an easy target and that we last to the end of the game, we would need all the other civs to make some serious mistakes for us to win the game.
2. We fortify on Bob and fight it out. This will be very costly. We will continue to be the bottom civ looking for a lucky chance to win.
3. We take fate into our own hands, pay our homage to The One, attack GS and hope for the best. If we fail we will be the second civ to leave the game. If we succeed, and also help to take out RP, we will have remove two of the top contenders from the game and put us into position to be a contender.
4. We find another option for expansion. At this time I don't see one, unless GS and Lego are suddenly willing to help us against the Bob civs. They have given no indication of that yet.