Extensive Analysis of Madrid Build Options...

[Arnelos]

BARRACKS PLAN (PLAN A):

Current WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game) - 5 shields, 2 food, 5 trade
Finish Spearman (1 more turn)
Start Barracks
6 turns of Barracks production (30 shields)
Pop expands to 3
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish Barracks in 2 turns (10 shields)
Start Worker
Finish Worker in 2 turns (10 shields)
Pop drops to 2
Start Veteran Spearman
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game) - 5 shields, 2 food, 5 trade
2 turns of Veteran Spearman production (10 shields)
Pop expands to 3
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish Veteran Spearman in 2 turns (10 shields)

RESULT 14 turns after Spearman completion:
- Barracks (completed 8 turns after spearman)
- Worker (completed 10 turns after spearman)
- Veteran Spearman (completed 14 turns after spearman)
- Spending 1 tax for Barracks upkeep
- Builds Veteran units
- Need 20 food to expand population (have 8 in storage)
- Unrest trouble at Pop 4

Start Settler
3 turns of Settler production (15 shields)
Pop expands to 4 (need to control for unrest)
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland) - 8 shields, 1 food, 7 trade
1 turn of Settler production (8 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 7 shields, 3 food, 8 trade
Finish Settler in 1 turn (7 shields)
Pop drops to 2
CYCLE START
Start Veteran Spearman
New WF: #3 (cows), #20 (wheat) - 3 shields, 4 food, 6 trade
4 turns of Veteran Spearman production (12 shields)
Pop expands to 3
New WF: #3 (cows), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat) - 4 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish Veteran Spearman in 2 turns (8 shields)
Start Settler
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
3 turns of Settler production (15 shields)
Pop expands to 4 (need to control for unrest)
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland) - 8 shields, 1 food, 7 trade
1 turn of Settler production (8 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 7 shields, 3 food, 8 trade
Finish Settler in 1 turn (7 shields)
Pop drops to 2
CYCLE END
Setter+Spearman Cycle: 11 turns
Turns of Cycle in Unrest Risk: 2/11

RESULT 30 turns after spearman completion:
- Barracks (completed 8 turns after spearman)
- Worker (completed 10 turns after spearman)
- Veteran Spearman (completed 14 turns after spearman)
- Settler (completed 19 turns after spearman)
- Veteran Spearman (completed 25 turns after spearman)
- Settler (completed 30 turns after spearman)
- Experienced 4 turns of unrest trouble (impact on timing?)
- Spearman+Settler cycle is 11 turns
- Spending 1 tax for Barracks upkeep
- Builds Veteran units
- Need 20 food to expand population
- Unrest trouble at Pop 4
- Made 192 trade over 30 turns
- Spent 22 gold in taxes over 30 turns
- Net Income 170 over 30 turns

[Arnelos]

TEMPLE PLAN (PLAN B):

Current WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game) - 5 shields, 2 food, 5 trade
Finish Spearman (1 more turn)
Start Temple
Finish Temple in 6 turns (30 shields)
Pop expands to 3
Start Worker
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish Worker in 2 turns (10 shields) - 8/20 food
Pop drops to 2
New WF: #3 (cows), #20 (wheat) - 3 shields, 4 food, 5 trade
Start Spearman
3 turns of Spearman production (9 shields)
Pop expands to 3
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
1 turn of Spearman production (5 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland) - 6 shields, 2 food, 6 trade
Finish Spearman in 1 turn (6 shields)
Start Spearman
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
2 turns of spearman production (10 shields)

RESULT by 14 turns after Spearman Completion:
- Temple (completed 6 turns after spearman)
- Worker (completed 8 turns after spearman)
- Spearman (completed 12 turns after spearman)
- Spearman (10/20 shields 14 turns after spearman)
- Spending 1 tax for Temple upkeep
- Builds Regular Units
- Need 20 food to expand population (14 food in storage)
- Unrest trouble at Pop 6

Finish spearman in 2 turns (10 shields)
Pop expands to 4
Start Settler
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat) - 6 shields, 4 food, 8 trade
Finish settler in 5 turns (30 shields)
Pop expands to 5
Pop drops to 3
Start Spearman
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish spearman in 4 turns (20 shields)
Start Settler
1 turn of settler production (5 shields)
Pop expands to 4
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland) - 6 shields, 4 food, 8 trade
3 turns of settler production (18 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 7 shields, 3 food, 8 trade
Finish Settler in 1 turn (7 shields)
Setter+Spearman Cycle: 8-9 turns
Turns of Cycle in Unrest Risk: None
1 extra spearman produced before start of cycle

RESULT by 30 turns after Spearman Completion:
- Temple (completed 6 turns after spearman)
- Worker (completed 8 turns after spearman)
- Spearman (completed 12 turns after spearman)
- Spearman (completed 16 turns after spearman)
- Settler (completed 21 turns after spearman)
- Spearman (completed 25 turns after spearman)
- Settler (completed 30 turns after spearman)
- Experienced NO turns of unrest trouble
- Spearman+Settler cycle is 8-9 turns
- Spending 1 tax for Temple upkeep
- Builds Regular Units
- Need 20 food to expand population
- Unrest trouble at Pop 6
- Made 207 trade over 30 turns
- Spent 24 gold in taxes over 30 turns
- Net Income 183 over 30 turns

[Arnelos]

GRANARY PLAN (PLAN C):

Current WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game) - 5 shields, 2 food, 5 trade
Finish Spearman (1 more turn)
Start Granary
6 turns of Granary production (30 shields)
Pop Expands to 3
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game) - 7 shields, 1 food, 6 trade
3 turns of that WF (21 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish Granary in 2 turns (10 shields)
Start Worker
Finish Worker in 2 turns (10 shields)
Pop drops to 2
Start Settler
New WF: #3 (cows), #20 (wheat) - 3 shields, 4 food, 6 trade
1 turn of Settler production (3 shields)
Pop expands to 3

RESULT BY 14 turns after Spearman Completion:
- Granary (completed 11 turns after Spearman)
- Worker (completed 13 turns after Spearman)
- Settler (3/30 shields 14 turns after Spearman)
- Spending 1 tax for Granary upkeep
- Builds Regular Units
- Need only 10 food to expand population (3 in storage)
- Unrest trouble at Pop 4

New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
2 turns of settler production (10 shields)
Pop expands to 4 (need to control for unrest) - ****1 food stored****
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 7 shields, 3 food, 8 trade
Finish settler in 3 turns (21 shields)
Pop drops to 2
Pop expands to 3
CYCLE STARTS
Start Spearman
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
3 turns of Spearman production (15 shields)
Pop expands to 4 (need to control for unrest) - ****2 food stored****
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat) - 6 shields, 4 food, 8 trade
Finish Spearman in 1 turn (6 shields)
Start Settler
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #14 (forest) - 9 shields, 0 food, 7 trade
2 turns of settler production (18 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat) - 6 shields, 4 food, 8 trade
1 turn of settler production (6 shields)
Pop Expands to 5 (Will need a specialist this next turn)
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat), *SPEC* - 6 shields, 2 food, 8 trade
Finish Settler in 1 turn (6 shields)
Pop drops to 3
Start Spearman
CYCLE ENDS
Setter+Spearman Cycle: 8 turns
Turns of Cycle in Unrest Risk: 5/8

RESULT BY 30 turns after Spearman Completion:
- Granary (completed 11 turns after Spearman)
- Worker (completed 13 turns after Spearman)
- Settler (completed 19 turns after Spearman)
- Spearman (completed 23 turns after Spearman)
- Settler (completed 27 turns after Spearman)
- Spearman (15/20 shields 30 turns after Spearman)
- Spearman+Settler cycle is 8 turns
- Experienced 8 turns of unrest trouble
- Spearman+Settler cycle is 8 turns
- Spending 1 tax for Granary upkeep
- Builds Regular Units
- Need only 10 food to expand population
- Unrest trouble at Pop 4
- Made 200 trade over 30 turns
- Spent 19 gold in taxes over 30 turns
- Net Income 181 over 30 turns

[Arnelos]

GRANARY+TEMPLE PLAN (PLAN D):

Current WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game) - 5 shields, 2 food, 5 trade
Finish Spearman (1 more turn)
Start Granary
6 turns of Granary production (30 shields)
Pop Expands to 3
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game) - 7 shields, 1 food, 6 trade
3 turns of that WF (21 shields)
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
Finish Granary in 2 turns (10 shields)
(note that 3 turns of forest and 2 turns of wheat gets us 1 more trade and 1 extra shield (wasted) than 2 turns of forest, 2 of shielded grassland, and 1 of wheat - it's all about that 1 extra trade, baby!)
Start Worker
Finish Worker in 2 turns (10 shields)
Pop drops to 2
Start Temple
New WF: #3 (cows), #20 (wheat) - 3 shields, 4 food, 6 trade
1 turn of Temple production (3 shields)
Pop expands to 3

RESULT BY 14 turns after Spearman Completion:
- Granary (completed 11 turns after Spearman)
- Worker (completed 13 turns after Spearman)
- Temple (3/30 shields 14 turns after Spearman)
- Spending 1 tax for Granary upkeep
- Builds Regular Units
- Need only 10 food to expand population (3 in storage)
- Unrest trouble at Pop 4

New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 5 shields, 4 food, 7 trade
2 turns of temple production (10 shields)
Pop expands to 4 (need to control for unrest) - ****1 food stored****
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #20 (wheat) - 7 shields, 3 food, 8 trade
Finish temple in 3 turns (21 shields)
Pop expands to 5
CYCLE STARTS
Start Spearman
New WF: #3 (cows), #4 (forest), #5 (game), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat) - 8 shields, 3 food, 9 trade
Finish Spearman in 3 turns (24 shields)
Start Settler
1 turn of settler production (8 shields)
Pop expands to 6 (need to control for unrest) - ****2 food stored****
New WF: #3 (cows), #5 (game), #7 (grassland), #14 (forest), #18 (s-grassland), #20 (wheat) - 8 shields, 3 food, 10 trade
Finish settler in 3 turns (24 shields)
Pop drops to 4
Pop expands to 5 - ****1 food stored****
CYCLE ENDS
Setter+Spearman Cycle: 7 turns
Turns of Cycle in Unrest Risk: 3/7

RESULT BY 30 turns after Spearman Completion:
- Granary (completed 11 turns after Spearman)
- Worker (completed 13 turns after Spearman)
- Temple (completed 19 turns after Spearman)
- Spearman (completed 22 turns after Spearman)
- Settler (completed 26 turns after Spearman)
- Spearman (completed 29 turns after Spearman)
- Settler (8/30 shields 30 turns after Spearman)
- Experienced 6 turns of unrest trouble
- Spearman+Settler cycle is 7 turns
- Spending 2 tax for Granary and Temple upkeep
- Builds Regular Units
- Need only 10 food to expand population
- Unrest trouble at Pop 6
- Made 222 trade over 30 turns
- Spent 30 gold in taxes over 30 turns
- Net Income 192 over 30 turns

[Arnelos]

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Barracks Plan (Plan A):
Built in 30 Turns:
Barracks, Worker, 2 Veteran Spearmen, 2 Settlers
Settler Times: 19 turns, 30 turns, 41 turns, 52 turns, etc.
Cycle Length thereafter: 11 turns
Net Income over 30 turns: 170
Avg Income thereafter: 6.73/turn (-1 tax) = 5.73/turn

Temple Plan (Plan B):
Built in 30 Turns:
Temple, Worker, 3 Spearmen, 2 Settlers
Settler Times: 21 turns, 30 turns, ~39 turns, ~48 turns, etc.
Cycle Length thereafter: 8-9 turns
Net Income over 30 turns: 183
Avg Income thereafter: ~7.44/turn (-1 tax) = ~6.44/turn

Granary Plan (Plan C):
Built in 30 Turns:
Granary, Worker, 1.75 Spearman, 2 Settlers
Settler Times: 19 turns, 27 turns, 35 turns, 43 turns, etc.
Cycle Length thereafter: 8 turns
Net Income over 30 turns: 181
Avg Income thereafter: 7.38/turn (-1 tax) = 6.38/turn

Granary+Temple Plan (Plan D):
Built in 30 Turns:
Granary, Worker, Temple, 2 Spearmen, 1.27 Settlers
Settler Times: 26 turns, 33 turns, 40 turns, 47 turns, etc.
Cycle Length thereafter: 7 turns
Net Income over 30 turns: 192
Avg Income thereafter: 9.43/turn (-2 tax) = 7.43/turn
*NOTE: Cycle could be significantly shortened if we can get 1-2 luxuries to Madrid due to currently lost shields then being more efficiently used

TO SUMMARIZE...
Plan A (Barracks) gets us veteran units, but the least money and the longest cycle length. Should only be chosen if veteran units are worth the loss in both funds and REX speed.
Plan B (Temple) gets us a decent cycle length and decent funds along with a bonus spearman. A middle-of-the-road choice and can only be sustained for probably 2-3 settlers before needing to switch priorities.
Plan C (Granary) gets us a good cycle length and decent funds and doesn't even slow us down (in fact, it's the fastest for the first 4 settlers at least), but has less net income than Plan D.
Plan D (Granary+Temple) gets us the most money and the shortest cycle length (even shorter if we can connect a luxury or two...), but takes a little while to catch up to Plan C.

Just building additional military units is equivalent to Plan A. It's only worth it if those military units are needed so badly that the loss in income (exacerbated by the upkeep cost of the units if that becomes an issue) and loss in REX speed is worth it.

Since I personally think that GoW only has their one lousy conscript warrior and their one lousy regular warrior on this side of the whole continent (and likely don't have much beyond those for a ~20 turn trek down here), wasting our time building a barracks or a bunch of military units right now only serves to shoot ourselves in the feet.... c'mon, GoW isn't that scary... they don't have enough force yet to hurt anyone... and if we REX like we SHOULD, they'll never have the force to hurt US... which, of course, is the strategy we wanted to follow anyways, remember?

As for whether to follow Plan B, Plan C, or Plan D... they each have merits. Please discuss.

[DAVOUT]

I prefer B, but I would like an estimate of the time when all cities will be connected.

[Arnelos]

Originally posted by DAVOUT
I prefer B, but I would like an estimate of the time when all cities will be connected.

hmmm... Oliverfa?

[ruby_maser]

I also like plan B. FYI, Madrid gets a 2 shields bonus every time it grows. I don't know if that was factored into the analysis.

Pamplona isn't getting it. I never noticed it before this game. It must be a bonus just for the capital.

[Hot Mustard]

Two thumbs up and a big cheer for the Governor of Madrid. A most excellent analysis, Señor Clemente! The governors of Pamplona and Barcelona have an excellent role model.

My thoughts on the plans:

A) Cycle time is too long, and is not profitable enough to keep our wise men happy. This plan is only needed if we feel war is imminent, which it is not. We have non-agression pacts in place and it would be very difficult for ND, GoW, or Lux to wage war on us this early.

B) Good cycle time, good income, and produces enough units to pair with the settlers and have some extra for garrisons or patrol duty. Also has cultural benefits which are not mentioned.

C) Most agressive REX plan, but skimps a bit on defense. Cycle time is not really much advantage over B.

D) As lovely as the cycle time and income are, I cannot stomach a 26 turn wait for the first settler.

My preference is unchanged - build the Temple (plan B). It may be asking a bit much, but I would love to have the city governors and the slave master coordinate their efforts more so that we can see:
1) a schedule for improvements;
2) a road network schedule;
3) how the city plans are effected by worker improvements;
4) how the city plans are affected by the return of our explorers.

That's not asking much, is it?

[Togas]

EXCELLENT work

Plan B is clearly the best route for Spain.

I'd like to see if the Governors of Pamplona and Barcelona can come up with something similiar.

--Togas

[E_T]

I'm working on a few spreadsheets that look at these plans. So far, I have found a flaw in Plan C.

I'll try to publish these ASAP

Eta Tamali

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by E_T
So far, I have found a flaw in Plan C.

That's forgivable, after all, we don't know Mathematics yet.

[OliverFA]

Originally posted by Arnelos


hmmm... Oliverfa?

Any road plan from Pamplona to Madrid must pass at least by one mountain tile. That's 9 turns. To avoid roading two mountain tiles we shall road the following tiles starting from Pamplona (sorry, no time for doing a pic) NE, E, E, SE. That's 3+9+3+3=18 turns with one worker. Not counting the time needed to move the worker from one tile to another.

[GodKing]

I f we build military units, do you count the fact that they maintain order if in a city (even a warrior can act as police for maintaining order)

Barracks option doesn't mention the idea of upgrading units. We have several warriors that we should upgrade to sword as feasable. Of course we need to connect to iron to do so....

I lean towards c or d. what would d look like if you switched the order?

What we need is some medium term goals set (by our lord Togas I would assume) for where we wish to be. Are we lookign to be a military powerhouse? Offence or defence? Production and or money powerhouse? Culture?

People say don't expect any sort of rush at this point? Guess what - If this was a solo game I would have popped out 2 warriors, then a barracks, then a second city, followed by warriors. By now I suspect I would have only 2 or 3 cities, but probably 15 warriors and a barracks to upgrade them in. Send 10 sword out now and we would concure any 2 civs we like, adding all their hard work into our civ. I suspect this is what GoW is doing, and once they connect to Iron everybody better watch out.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by GodKing
People say don't expect any sort of rush at this point? Guess what - If this was a solo game I would have popped out 2 warriors, then a barracks, then a second city, followed by warriors. By now I suspect I would have only 2 or 3 cities, but probably 15 warriors and a barracks to upgrade them in. Send 10 sword out now and we would concure any 2 civs we like, adding all their hard work into our civ. I suspect this is what GoW is doing, and once they connect to Iron everybody better watch out.

No, they're not. At least not according to the in-game military advisor, who was saying until just recently that we were stronger than them, and now we are average compared to them.