Preparing for World War Bob

[Arnelos]

Preparing for World War Bob

The Facts:
- Chivalry was discovered by Glory of War a few turns ago
- Glory of War sold Chivalry to at least 3 other civs, possibly even all 4 except ourselves
- Glory of War's power rating has skyrocketed, likely due to using their cash to upgrade their many horsemen to riders. They are likely also building additional riders.
- Neu Demogyptica's powergraph rating has also skyrocketed, indicating that they likely have Chivalry and are upgrading their horsemen to Ansar Warriors (perhaps also building more).
- Legoland finished research on Education last turn and whored it to at least 3 other civilizations, but not Roleplay Team.
- Legoland is willing to offer us Education, but they'll get back to us on that tomorrow.

From the Togas-MasterZen Chat:
- MZ first tries to hide that GoW even whored Chivalry (we can verify that the whoring did take place, however)
- MZ then apparently admits that yes, they whored Chivalry to everyone but Roleplay Team and Neu Demogyptica (we can see the huge spike in ND's powergraph, however)
- MZ reports that he would love to tell us what his grandtabular fantastic superlicious master plan of death and general mayhem is, but then he'd get gruesomely executed by the rest of his team
- MZ says he'll try to convince the rest of his team to sell us Chivalry for 200 gold. He will poll them on the issue.
- Togas informs MZ that RP Team has to assume the war is about to begin and that we are changing all of our production over to a military buildup unless GoW can demonstrate they mean us no harm.
- MZ tells Togas that he's concerned that even if his team sells us Chivalry to prove they can be trusted, Togas and RP Team still won't trust GoW (uh oh... he's starting to catch on... watch out!)

Speculation by the Team:
- GoW is trying to convince ND to attack RP Team and GoW will then stab ND in the back.
- GoW moved their 2 galleys off our coast where ND could see them as a means of showing ND they were indeed preparing to uphold their side of the bargain. In reality, the galleys are merely a ruse and likely don't even have anything aboard (and probably are the full extent of the GoW fleet on the Eastern side of Bob).
- GoW is failing to sell us Chivalry while they have sold it to all other powers in order to further convince ND that RP Team is the target of GoW's aggression. If they were to sell us Chivalry, ND would be able to tell and would suspect a backstab.
- ND is either really dumb enough to fall for this or they are stringing GoW along with the intention of attacking GoW. Oddly enough, the former seems more likely because ND continues to lust after the Valley of the Cows, though they'd have to consider a backstab from GoW at least as a possibility... This is the part that admittedly does not add up.
- Given the spikes in the powergraphs, we may only have 5-10 turns before the war actually starts. There seems little way to know for sure.

Resultant Diplomatic Initiative(s):
- After I (Arnelos) talked with ZargonX for a while and mentioned to him the possibility of a World War Bob, BigFree and Togas talked with ZargonX about setting up a RP Team-Legoland summit for the very near future to discuss the coming war and how Legoland and RP Team might fit into it.
- We need to have an internal discussion about the story we're going to tell Legoland. We can either be frank with Legoland about what we believe GoW is really up to (intending to backtab ND) or we can make Legoland believe that either ND or GoW is aiming to become a Bobian superpower (by whatever means we write up) and thus RP Team needs Legoland's help and it's in Legoland's interest to provide it. I honestly don't know whether it would be better to tell them the truth (which is bad enough) or that we need to embelish it... that's why I think it needs to be discussed.
- We should perhaps contact ND and see if we can convince them that GoW is indeed just trying to backstab them. If we succeed in convincing ND of this, perhaps ND would then either attack GoW or perhaps even give up on invasion of either neighbor entirely (unlikely). Either way, a talk with ND seems necessary since we believe they are about to invade us and that can possibly be averted.

Decisions made by Togas:
- Rushed Granary in Madrid for 96 gold. Medieval Infantry place in queue.
- Barcelona switched from Aqueduct to Barracks (lost some shields and the 5 SPT for this turn). It will build Vet Pikes or Med Inf.
- Valencia switched from Harbor to Medieval Inf (3 turns)
- Salamanca kept as Worker (which will be sent to the second iron source and form an iron colony)
- Pamplona set to Pikeman (3 turns)
- Toledo switched from Settler to Pikeman (2 turns)
- Zaragosa set to Medieval Infantry (1 turn)
- Leon switched from Settler to Pikeman (1 turn)
- Santiago set to Pikeman (9 turns)
- Vigo switched form Settler to Pikeman (6 turns)
- 2 workers clearing jungle at Toledo #10 taken off of jungle clearing. They will build a road at Toledo #2 for defense of the Toledo area. Need discussion of defending Toledo for what they do next, perhaps a road on the mountain tile at Toledo #9 (which we can garrison with pikes and med inf to prevent it from being used as an enemy base for attacking Toledo).
- There was discussion about moving the Watch Rider and the Mountain Watch, but I honestly don't remember what Togas did with them when it was finally decided.

Wargames and Simulations to help Plan Spain's Defense:
- Togas sent me his Map of Spain so that I can hopefully make an "Invasion of Spain" Simulation. In such a simulation, we will have all of Spain and perhaps ND to the north. An arbitrary force of GoW Riders or ND Ansar Warriors (or both) will be provided to the "attacker" player and the "defender" player will play Spain. The object is for us to play this scenario against one another multiplayer (not PBEM, but actual multiplayer to make it go by faster) and test out various strategies for attack and defense of Spain with the GoW and ND UU's and other units. God only knows how many different scenarios will need to be made for different possibilities, so help would be greatly appreciated.
UPDATE: Nuclear Winter has already placed Spain's CURRENT units and cities on Togas' map and sent that to me, so at least that provides a template from which to make various scenarios.
- Once we have some scenarios, it would be good for especially dejon and others involved in the defense of Spain to get involved in playing them with other members of the team... try different stuff, learn whatever we can through trial and error as much as we already can from careful consideration.

[Hot Mustard]

By reallocating the workers near Toledo, we just told ND (they have a scout in the area) that we are preparing to defend our lands.

The rest of the moves/changes were wise.

Invasion of Spain tactics:
-----
The North:
Cross the border onto the game between Zaragoza and Santiago with Ansars, and fortify. The move "forks" the two cities, like in chess, forcing us to defend one or the other. The extra Ansar movement allows them to fortify across a river, minimizing damage from a preemptive strike.

With both GoW and Lego playing coy right now, assume the worst - that the others will spy on the cities and relay the information to ND.

Counter options (not mutually exclusive):
-Move the Smashing Mauls (with adequate defenders) onto the game tile before they arrive. This has the added benefit of maybe making ND think we're launching an assault northward, which may stall them - more time for us to build up.
-Need more defenders! (Pikeman)
-Catapults - lots of them

-----
Central:
I don't think an attempt would be made at Pamplona without dealing with Zaragoza and/or Toledo.

The approach to Toledo is obvious - start from the mtn to its north. Once Toledo is taken, New Madrid is just a hop-skip-and-jump away (which of course, Ansars can do in one turn).

Counters:
-Need more defenders (Pikeman)
-Take immediate control of the northern mtn, preferably with at least 3 units

Bilbao is lost if they want it, but I can't see they wasting units on it before going for Toledo.
-----

If Lego is in on it, we need to beware a naval invasion on Vigo and our iron. Connecting that second iron would be wise, and could discourage the attempt.

Of course, I've been harping about our lack of defense for awhile, so I almost feel like , but its just too .

[Arnelos]

Originally posted by dejon
By reallocating the workers near Toledo, we just told ND (they have a scout in the area) that we are preparing to defend our lands.

The rest of the moves/changes were wise.

I believe the cancelled jungle-clearing was taking place at Toledo #10, 3 tiles of jungle away from the nearest ND scout... they didn't see a thing

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Arnelos

I believe the cancelled jungle-clearing was taking place at Toledo #10, 3 tiles of jungle away from the nearest ND scout... they didn't see a thing

I was thinking it was the worker to the W of Toledo.

[Aidun]

Arnelos, I'm glad that you are back, you haven't lost your strategic skills during your absence. I am available to play a MP scenario until monday 14 July and sunday 13 July I won't be online until late as usual these days.

I ask you that you take over the governorship of Zaragoza during my absence of my holiday.

I hope that the game won't go very fast and that Spain will survive, but I trust in the team.

Aidun

[History Guy]

This is damnable. Toledo needs a settler, and we shall have one very shortly. However, I fear that without Pikemen and Medieval Infantrymen in the region, the area cannot be defended. We need a counter-offensive group and a defensive group, and, to be frank, I doubt that we can defend the region as is.

We need Chivalry, and immediately. We must hold our own, and we cannot without Chivalry. This is either Spain's fatal hour, or its greatest. It cannot be anything less. We know that they have Ansars and Riders, and that they want to use them. We have not proven ourselves to be soldiers, and thus they do not fear us as greatly as they should. This can either be used to our benefit, or it may be the key to our destruction.

When my settler is finished, I will immediately begin work on our Medieval Infantry unit. I'd rather like to be able to take down some of our enemies before I die at Toledo if this war does occur.

Don Iago de History Guy Calamari
Lord Toledo

[Togas]

As King of Spain and as the Defender of the People of Spain I have taken emergency control of the cities and armies of Spain to prepare for what we believe to be a very likely assault on Spain within the next 10 turns.

I ask that all of the Lords focus their efforts on military production and preparedness. I also urge you to voice your opinions and ideas on how we can defend Spain from this likely invasion from the north. We must be united in this action and determined to protect our homeland!

All of my advisors are in agreement, and I concur with their assessment. GoW is prodding ND to strike us. Other nations may be in on it, but we have limited time and resources, we must move to protect our northern front and our vital resources.

I ask for the following to be done:

No City shall build a non-military improvement without permission of the House of Lords.

All cities with defenders that are not directly or indirectly threatened should allow their defenders to move to an area at risk, as determined by our General.

I call for the immediate defense of North Cow Valley, and for the immediate defense of Toledo to begin now. I also demand that additional units be sent to the Iron of Vigo to protect this vital resource.

The 2nd iron must be roaded and a colony must be built.

The horses of Cordoba are to be linked via road to the rest of the nation.


Diplomaticly, I command that our Cheif Ambassador work endlessly on the following:
Getting a defensive pact with Legoland
Getting a defensive pact with GoW
Getting a NAP with GS.
Getting a NAP with ND.

On a military note: Ansars may be able to jump through the jungle and swoop in, however, they will not be able to bring Pikemen with them initially. We must be prepared to counter strike their Ansar stack the moment it is in range, and before any defenders can be brought in to aid it.

Catapults cannot cross through jungle. We have little fear of a long drawn out seige (which I believe we could win). We must fear a fast moving assault.

As of the last save our military strength was equal to ND's so they are not yet ready for a full out assault... unless they are counting on outside help.

--Togas

[ruby_maser]

Productivity:

From looking at things, Pamplona may be capable of getting 15 uncorrupted shields per turn in a timely fashion. Why 15 shields specifically is because a pikeman costs 30. If we could just increase it to 14, the city could produce a medieval infantry every 3 turns.

It would involve the mining of both Gold Mountain and another. It could also be done by mining another mountain besides GM and also mining the irrigated cattle bonus, but is less appealing than the first. This crisis has made it difficult to assume anything about the worker orders. If shield production for Pamplona is a priority, please state so in this thread. I'll try to coordinate with Senor WhiteBandit about it if it is deemed important enough.

Also, serious talk needs to be given to what each of our major shield-producing cities is capable of on a per turn basis. In this way, build queues can be determined by the city that is most appropriate to build that particular in terms of minimum time and minimum waste. Coordinating the build-up is critical to ensuring that our

A list of possible builds could be approved, and cities be assigned (or assume the responsibility for) queues based on what we estimate we need of each and whether it can be performed within a reasonable time frame. From what I can see, it would consist of:

pikemen (30 shields)
catapults (20 shields) - (?)maybe
medieval infantry (40 shields)
horsemen (30 shields) - for upgrade to knights(?)
Something else???

Intelligence: It may not be in the budget, but if the military advisor starts to indicate a massive military build-up among our enemies, investigating their cities may give us insight into their military strengths. Also, taking a look at a few of their weaker holdings might help us gauge the feasibility of an option to counterattack.

[Aidun]

Lords, I have asked the royal secretary to check the reprts and maps of the past two centuries and compared them with our most recent map.

I assume that most of you have seen the two ND workers that are clearing the tile just south of Marlowa.
It is a bit strange that they are clearing the tile SOUTH of marlowa: the tile EAST of Marlowa has a river and will, when cleared and in use, be of more worth than an ordinary grassland tile.

Why are they then clearing a normal tile when it has less value than a river tile? Because the normal tile has an even greater value: it is the EASIEST way to attack Spain. By clearing the tile the Ansars of ND will be able to enter the territory of Spain in ONE turn instead of two. With a road they can move on the tile NE of Santiago (over the river) and attack Santiago easily by surprise.

If they want to attack Zaragoza, they can enter the Game-tile just west of Zaragoza, thus declining its production and attacking it by surprise. In this second case we still have the river as extra defensive bonus for the defenders of Zaragoza.

There are some more interesting facts that I discovered by this research:

The first worker was moved on the tile South of Marlowa in 250 BC, so the plan for an attack on Spain is at least 8 turns old, because the decision to move the worker to this tile must have been made in 270 BC.

I can also predict when the war will start.
The two workers have, probabbly (I cannot be sure because I don't have the 230 save to check it), cleared 11/24 of the jungle:

Worker 1 has probably started clearing the jungle in 230 BC, worker 2 has started in 210 BC (assuming he has been moved to that tile in 230 BC)

This means that W1 has cleared for 6 turns and W2 has cleared for 5 turns 6+5=11
clearing a jungle with 1 worker costs 24 turns ---> the two workers have cleared 6/24 + 5/24= 11/24 of the jungle

24 - 11 = 13. It will take still 13 turns to clear with 1 worker, with two, it will take W2 7 turns and W1 6 turns.

When they want to buil a road too, W1 doies the first road-turn and together they do the second turn ( roading takes 3 turns for 1 worker)

The War will thus start in a minimum of 7 + 2 = 9 turns

Aidun

[LzPrst]

The War will thus start in a minimum of 7 + 2 = 9 turns

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!

(runs away in a very feminine fashion screaming like a girl...)

[Aidun]

I forgot to say about Legoland: they haven't sent me a trade deal.

Diomingo Cian

[LzPrst]

We should place soldiers on the points most likely to be attacked and build fortifications there. The game square west of Zaragoza and the jungle straight north of Santiago. 2 pikemen and a bunch of workers could have it done fairly safely, possibly in time, I'm not sure.
We might have time, we might not. Risking our workers isnt something I suggest to strongly though...
But at least a few pikemen on those squares will halt a charge for a while, in fact a large army north of santiago would force the enemy around it giving us time to regroup and attack. possibly

[LzPrst]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGHHHH!!!!! Too many variables...

[ruby_maser]

As if Señor Aidun's revelation about the workers south of Marlowa wasn't ominous enough, it appears that the pikeman that ND has positioned to the west of Marlowa is there to either (A): compromise the most obvious path of counterattack into the mountains southwest of Neu Theben or (B): pose a threat to the spices they may not know are unroaded anyway

I'm betting its (A)

[Aidun]

If we want to build fortifications near Zaragoza or Santiago, we'd betterbuild one on the game and/or build one on tile #2 of Santiago, or the tile NE of Santiago. moving troop to that tile is strategically clever, because then you can attack Santiago while your units needn't to cross a river when attacking. I heard but just form WhiteBandit that he hasn't got that much workers to complete it quickly, so these plans are still more like a utopia. The best thing we can do is to build just masses of pikemen and medieval infantry.

We have to make use of our advantage of the jungle and the inability to attack us directly form ND territory: they have to move to both Santiago and Zaragoza turn for turn.

ND has to move their Ansars just before our walls and can but attack the NEXT turn. Ansars can but poorly defend and M I is strong in the attack, so if we counter attack them turn after turn, we will gain victory over them, instead they over us.

Aidun