The War: 1260AD

[vondrack]

Keeping Abilene N-N

Considering what I just posted in the previous post, I believe that preventing GS from landing at Abilene N-N must be our topmost priority. If we leave it undefended, using defenders elsewhere to raise our odds from 95% to 97% (you get the idea), we would sure survive this coming turn with less stress, feeling that little bit safer about our cities...

...but on the turn following the landings, we would be screwed. Royally screwed. We would have 68 GS tanks knocking on the doors of Abilene and Q.M. And 52 GoW tanks knocking on the doors of Jackson & Dye Fields, or Dye Fields & Tarzania. "There would be no stopping GoW/GS", to paraphrase BigFree...

Sure, we might hope GS misses this possibility. Might we? Sigh. No, not really... those guys are smart. Real smart. They would not miss it. Hoping they would miss it would be a much bigger gamble than hoping 10 infantries could keep a city against 30 marines, IMHO.

So... I am going to search for possible reserves we could use to make sure GS does not land on Abilene N-N. Actually, I seem to be getting to the crux of our plans for the rest of this turn... deploying our defenses.

[vondrack]

Western Coast - Pickets and Naval Defenses

1) U-K1 to move SE-S-W and fortify
2) U-S1 to move W-S-E and fortify
3) U-H2 to move S-SE-E and fortify
4) U-H1 to move NW-NW-S and fortify
Simply checking the Orange Perimeter and 'clicking into' our new picket line.

5) U-H3 to move N-N-N-E
getting into a position to either help blocking Q.M., Abilene, or Tipperary in 1265AD - or engaging SGSF, if within striking range



More to follow.

[lmtoops]

Concerning the 18 mech. infantry, I suppose you are correct; they are part of the armada. In fact, that is probably the reason for the unexplained delays. They had to chain the MI to the fleet.

On another note concerning game mechanics (this is a slight thread jack), when you have identical units in a stack (ie transports) how is order of defense determined. Is it based on the movement order? If you can control the order of defense, than maybe I could ensure that empty transports are sunk first. This could trick the attacking team in several ways. In any case, it's a question but has no bearing on this game (at this time).

[vondrack]

6) H.B.S. Karina (5/5) to move SE-SE-E (to Sando SW)
7) H.B.S. Jackson (4/4) to move SE-E (to Sando W)
8) H.B.S. Tipperary (4/5) to move E-E (to Sando NW)
sealing Sandonorico against NGSF

9) H.B.S. Legopolis (3/5) to move SW
simply to be as close to the fighting waters as possible; it's still at 3hp...

10) H.B.S. Panama (2/4) to move SE-SE-S
11) H.B.S. Kloreepville (1/4) to move SE-SE-S
12) H.B.S. Romulus (1/4) to move S and fortify
blocking the tile NE of the hill fortress at Q.M. N-N

13) H.B.S. Farmerville (2/4) to move SE-SE-SE
14) H.B.S. Remus (1/4) to move E
blocking the tile E of the hill fortress at Q.M. N-N

15) H.B.S. Apollon (4/5) to move NW
16) H.B.S. Pollux (4/5) to move NW
17) H.B.S. Myrmidon (2/4) to move NW and fortify
just putting our DDs in the South into a single herd - they will be able to block Abilene or Tipperary in 1265AD, or attack SGSF, should we choose so

I wouldn't worry much about SGSF DDs attacking our DDs in the South - if GS did it, they'd have to leave their NGSF transports completely undefended (or with just a single DD), which I doubt they would do. I assume they will move to somewhere within the dim red zone:



They will be unlikely to move within 2 tiles from Q.M. (we could bombard them with our arty based there, making them easy picks for whatever would be around) and will likely want to remain in a position to (be able to) attack at least something from the sea.

Therefore...

18) new ('3rd') bombers to rebase from Legopolis to Q.M.

That's it for navy and airforce in the West, I believe.

[vondrack]

I have almost forgotten...

19) use 3 cavalries to destroy the fortress S-S of S'haven
20) use 3 cavalries to destroy the fortress SE-SE of F'mouth

These two must go, that's for sure.

[ZargonX]

Well, I think we're covering all the bases we possibly can. From here, we're just going to have to see what GS decides to do...

[vondrack]

Moving over to the East... by the same token:

21) use 3 cavalries to destroy the fortress N-N of Dye Fields
22) use 3 cavalries to destroy the fortress N-N of Tarzania

These two must go, too.

Eastern Theatre

The situation in the East upon opening the save:



All we can do here is to turtle...

Though, we can at least try finding out what we are going to face here in 1265AD. We can see the GoW Armada (it is E-E-NE-NE-NE of Dye Fields), but not their carriers. Plus, we cannot see 2 transports (there are 19 of them in the Armada, but GoW's rooster shows 21 of them), which makes a transport chain possible - if we could rule such a chain out or confirm it, we could better rely on the number of GoW marines attacking us on the East Coast.

A transport chain would need a transport parked within 5 tiles of the Armada:



As you can see from the picture, we can check almost all of the tiles a transport link would have to be parked at. The four tiles in the South can be safely ignored, since they are too far away from the GoW mainland.

Interestingly, I've just realized no tile within the 5-tile radius around the GoW Armada can be reached with a transport sailing out from Zayrut or Deep Dark Dungeon. And only two such tiles are within the reach of a transport sailing out of Zenophobia (though chaining units through Zenophobia would require another transport taking the units from Bob to Baby Bob...).

Either way, even if we spot a transport link somewhere within that radius, a maximum of 8 marines/units only will be able to join the GoW Armada using a transport chain (speaking of the invasion in 1265AD, that is).

These naval moves in the Eastern Theatre seem so obvious and well working that I will play them before going to bed (until about midnight GMT), posting what we spot...

[vondrack]

OK, forgot to mention this for the Western Theatre:

23) LNT-NC & LNT-FE to move NW-N-N-NE-NE to Abilene
24) LNT-BD to move NW-NW-NW-NW
moving all transports into positions allowing to block access to Q.M., Abilene, or Tipperary as needed in 1265AD

and these would be moves for the Eastern Theatre:

25) U-PH1 to move N-NE-E and fortify
26) U-J1 to move E-SE-E and fortify
27) H.B.S. Hades to move NE-E
28) U-Z2 to move E-E-N-N

BTW... just noticed that ND is now in modern times. Radio down by 30%! We can safely cut the research spendings to 60%, still doing a 4t radio research!

29) lower research slider to 60%

[ZargonX]

BTW... just noticed that ND is now in modern times. Radio down by 30%! We can safely cut the research spendings to 60%, still doing a 4t radio research!

That's good news

[vondrack]

To get at least some idea about how many cavalries and horses (aka cannon fodder) we should have ready for our defenses this turn, here is a tentative build schedule:

City Management

Legopolis to start 1t tank

Jackson to start barracks
we will badly need those barracks when GoW attacks with their tanks (for fast healing); max food/commerce to get 1 new pop point naturally, add 2 workers

Farmerville to start 1t worker

Panama to start 1t tank (disband 1 cavalry)

Red Bricks to start 1t tank

Forkmouth to start 1t infantry (disband 1 cavalry + 40g)

Karina to start 1t tank

Zargonia to start 1t tank (or infantry?)
infantry would be guaranteed even if we are struck with pollution... perhaps infantry would be better, as there is high pollution in Zargonia

Dye Fields to start 1t fighter (work all land tiles, disband 1 cavalry)
probably to be changed or short-rushed during the F1-trick phase, as D.F. will like be heavily bombed

Sandonorico to start a placeholder
it's not very likely that GS would move their remaining navy (with marines aboard) within the reach of our 4/x BBs... but then, if it is out of the 4/x BB reach, it would be out of reach of any DDs rush-built in Sandonorico, too. Spending a cavalry and 320g on a DD that might be too far from where we would need it... unless we later find out we desperately need a new DD here, I would rather put Sandonorico on standby, maxxing out food & commerce

Logville to start 1t tank (disband 1 cavalry)

Sharpehaven to start 1t tank (disband 1 cavalry)

Oasis to start 1t tank (disband 1 cavalry, use the iron hill, maxx shields out)

Tarzania to start 1t infantry (disband 1 cavalry + 40g)

Camp David to start 1t explorer

Kloreepville to start 1t tank

Ahhmyfoot to start 1t tank (disband 2 cavalries)

Tiberium to start 1t tank (disband 2 cavalries)

Q.M. to start 1t destroyer (disband 1 cavalry + 1 horse)
...to make sure we do not miss the build even if struck by pollution. A new 4/4 DD from Q.M. should be within the striking range of the GS Marine Fleet - this one I believe is worth going for.

Abilene to start 1t tank (disband 1 cavalry + 40g)
add 1 worker, work the rred/mined tile S-SW, currently worked by Tipperary

Horsefish to shortrush to 60S (80g) and switch to tank (mine one irrigated tile)

Tipperary to start a placeholder
we wuold only be able to do a 1t explorer here, if not freeing that rred/mined grassland for Abilene - I am not sure we need explorers that much, so we better start something here and have a "basis" next turn

Nou Camp to start 2t worker

Port Hammer to start 1t worker

Notes:
- irrigate 1 currently mined tile in Legopolis radius (1 worker)
- irrigate 1 currently mined tile in Red Bricks radius (1 worker)
- irrigate 1 currently mined tile in Karina radius (1 worker)
- clear pollution near Jackson (3 workers)
- clear pollution near Tarzania (3 workers)
- mine 1 currently irrigated tile near Horsefish (2 workers)

Now, that's 13 cavalries, 1 horse, and 200g. Not bad, considering that we could theoretically have 12-13 new tanks, 2-3 new infantries, and 1 new DD next turn...

We would be left with 3 horsemen and 12 cavalry.

This also shows that we can afford to add up to 9 workers to our cities, if needed.

[vondrack]

OK, getting to the tough point... I am now going to try figuring out reasonable garrisons for all cities directly threated by a seaborne assault:

Jackson
Dye Fields (blitz-through possible)
Forkmouth
Quanto Mechanico (blitz-through possible)
Abilene (blitz-through possible)

I consider Sandonorico safe (as in: needing no garrison) - if we lose this game because of a pack of fully loaded transports sinking a 4/x battleship, so be it... I would know what it was.

I am also going to trust ND blindly. We simply do not have units enough to make Crossing and Logville safe... if they wish our quick end, so be it. I would only leave one token infantry there, maybe not even that. I will try contacting Darekill and selling our story one more time.

This is what we have to work with:

4 horsemen
12 cavalry
91 infantry
27 tanks
62 artillery

In addition to the cities mentioned above, we should do our best to prevent GS from landing at Abilene N-N. If they land there, we are toast next turn.

We are facing:
47 GS marines, probably in 2 groups of unknown numbers
up to 42 GoW marines in a single group

[vondrack]

For easier reference, here is a rehash of the odds as posted few days ago:


Defense boni available




City on hills
(Forkmouth)

Forkmouth is one of the threatened cities, but not really likely to be a target, as it doesn't allow a blitz-through attack. We have to defend it properly anyway, though.



You need 4 marines to have reasonable chances of taking down an infantry here. 3 is not enough (41.4%). And 2 marines do not have 50% chances of taking out a tank.


Metropolis on flat lands
(Abilene, Dye Fields, Quanto Mechanico)

The most common type of a city we will have to defend this coming turn.



For all practical purposes, the odds are the same as in a city on a hill. However, these 3 cities will be most likely targets of enemy seaborne attacks in 1265AD. As if that was not enough, Dye Fields may and probably will be heavily bombed... thus, the defenses here should be a tad better than in Forkmouth.


Metropolis on hills
(Jackson)



Jackson would be an extremely tough nut to crack. Not even 4 marines grant you 50%+ chances to kill an infantry here. 3 marines are not enough to have 50%+ chances to kill a tank. And 1 marine is actually more likely to lose its fight with our cavalry there then the other way round.

However, the city may be heavily bombed...

[vondrack]

After much shuffling back and forth, this is what I believe is a pretty solid defense plan:




Few comments:

Tanks used exclusively on the West Coast - GS has no bombers there, so it's granted that we will have barracks in all cities there. Whatever gets attacked, but survives, no matter how badly damaged, will be full health when the turn comes to us (at least I hope so... ... can anyone confirm that?).

For most cities, the invaders have only slightly more than 2 marines per every defending infantry/tank... thus, I consider it almost impossible for them to break through (and there is the supporting arty there, too!). If they do, then it will be time to say g'bay to Civ3 and go look for some other, "fair" game . Besides, Forkmouth and Abilene are unlikely to be within the striking range of all GS marines (that's why they are a tad weaker than Q.M.). Jackson and Abilene are "overdone" to account for hps lost to bombing runs.

And as you can see, we've been able to put together 22 infantries with a decent arty support to man the fort at Abilene N-N.

These numbers are extremely important. Be so kind and have a look - if there seems to be anything strange, by all means say so, please. I might have overseen something important and we have to get this right.

[vondrack]

OK, I now do the naval moves in the Eastern Theatre, post the updated picture and then go get some sleep...

[Jon Shafer]

Originally posted by vondrack
If they do, then it will be time to say g'bay to Civ3 and go look for some other, "fair" game .

Come now Radek, don't be such a boob.

You know very well how the RNG can swing extremely in one's favor with some luck.