1270 AD Orders - Will our stack survive?

[Master Zen]

This shows the current position of our units. The stack should survive even against a total Lego assault. Current lego forces are (brackets are losses from last turn):

Legoland forces:

- 2 settler
- 14 worker (-3)
- 3 horsemen (-1)
- 12 Cavalry (-13)
- 91 infantry (+2)
- 62 artillery
- 27 Tanks (+11)
- 6 ironclad (-1 LiB)
- 15 transport
- 9 subs (-2 LiB)
- 9 DD (-1 LiB, +3 B)
- 9 BB
- 1 carrier
- 3 bomber (+1 B)

Lego will probably have 40 tanks available next turn assuming they use their remaining Cavs for rush builds. They can either use them in a mass attack or... use them for defense which is quite likely also. GS invasion forces are 70 tanks, 55 Marines, 4 Mech Infs and 22 Infantry. Our force (including next-turn's chained tanks) is 60 tanks, 34 Marines, 42 Infs and 27 Artillery.

The plan:

Simple, build a city with the settler, bring in the tanks and hopefully take either Dye Fields or Jackson, we might even be able to take Legoland if its not defended. This turn neither Legoland nor Castlea were defended by a single unit which means that Lego is placing all their defenders in the threatened cities. By landing only 1 settler maybe they won't think we have extra ones off-shore...

After that there's not really a plan, we need to see how things develop and plan on a turn-by-turn basis. All we know is that our main objectives are Legoland and Jackson. Our bombers can and should try and bomb the crap out of everything possible until we turn Lego into an ancient-era civ again.

Btw, the more suggestions, the merrier, anyone want to step up as CoW and CALF?

-MZ

[Hot_Enamel]

Can we send over more settlers ?
(ASAP - so use a transport chain )

Assuming the road network isnt destroyed...and Legopolis is marginally defended.


Place 1 settler keypad 4 of our invasion tile.
Place 1 settler keypad 9 of our invasion tile.

Disband the invasion city

Build two new cities.
Our tanks can now reach Legopolis.

[Master Zen]

we have 4 more settlers off-shore and we can bring in more 2 turns from now.

[Hot_Enamel]

Oops .. yep I see the 4 settlers offshore now

http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=21934_view.jpg

Something like this is possible..if the rail network survives. I doubt it will..

Any chance ND has the funds to investigate Legopolis ?

[Master Zen]

Originally posted by Hot_Enamel
Oops .. yep I see the 4 settlers offshore now

http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=21934_view.jpg

Something like this is possible..if the rail network survives. I doubt it will..

Any chance ND has the funds to investigate Legopolis ?

Yep, that's definitely in mind. As for ND, well those bastards were supposed to send us maps of Jackson/Dye Fields last turn and forgot (hence the delay in playing) so I'm sure they'll have funds next turn.

And that's also the reason why I only dropped 1 settler with the stack. It's a long shot but Lego might not think we have more and thus might leave Legopolis lightly defended or not at all like during this turn.

If, on the other hand, Lego decides to defend Legopolis, then they'll have to spread their defenses from Dye Fields/Jackson which is good news for us. If they pillage the roads then they'll have to spend units into that instead of in attack or defense.

Either way... it benefits us.

[Jon Shafer]

Re: 1270 AD Orders - Will our stack survive?

No!

[Master Zen]

Re: Re: 1270 AD Orders - Will our stack survive?

Originally posted by Trip
No!

Who is this guy and what is he doing in our private forum?

[Aggie]

I'd give suggestions, but everything seems well in hand.
One suggestion is have is to move destroyers in patterns to pick up any subs, before they hit us.

Aggie

[Master Zen]

Fyi, there are 2 battleships in Jackson, this was from the ND pics three turns ago. other than that there are no known ships in the area. Our second transport fleet is defended by 7 destroyers which should be more than enough to counter any BB and SS onslaught.

[Master Zen]

Well, no battle reports from Vox, that means they're still neutral.

/me has a feeling Lego is going to turtle and try and bleed us to death while accumulating tanks for a counterattack...

[Master Zen]

Well, Lego did not attack GS's stack other than via artillery bombardments, which means they are either going to hole up or they attacked OUR stack full force...

[Hot_Enamel]

[Master Zen]

Here's the PM correspondance from CH regarding their intel and the attack:

Part I

We don't have a spy in GoW, but we can give you Lego's forces this turn. It looks like they attacked you as there's a fort-town next to your stack, protecting the surviving attackers ...

Legoland forces:

- 1 settler (one used for fort Stanwix, next to (former?) GoW stack)
- 17 worker (+3)
- 3 horsemen
- 2 explorer (+2 B)
- 6 Cavalry (-6)
- 94 infantry (+3)
- 62 artillery
- 27 Tanks (+0)
- 6 ironclad
- 15 transport
- 1 carrier
- 8 subs (-2)
- 8 DD (-1)
- 9 BB
- 2 fighter (+2 B)
- 3 bomber
- 1 army (!)

http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=16952_1270ADstart.jpg

http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=16952_1270ADStanwix.jpg

[Master Zen]

Part II

GoW,
this is, what we can see now, the situation. First of all some non-Lego problem: we are without rubber. Fixing the game diplomaticaly has cancelled our deal. Please send us rubber next turn, as otherwise we're back to building rifles and knights.

Also, it looks like Lego is counting on us to have some cavs ready... while we don't actually intend to build those, would it be possible to send us Mil Trad and saltpeter? Let's keep the threat alive, and them guessing at what to do

screenshot of our area:
http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=16952_1270ADstart.jpg

The following has happened:
- Lego has pillaged all roads next to our stack including the settler. This was perfectly as expected. As a result, we can only threaten Abilene over land.
- Lego has razed Tipperary. No more threat there.
- Lego is blocking the naval access to Abilene, and Quanto. Both blockades are not perfect, in that we've got a good chance of breaking through if we chain arts to Legoland, and use our transports to attack 1/4 BBs or 1/4 DDs. It would however destroy most of our transport capability to get through, and there is no certain way of success.
- we still have a spy in Legoland, they did not expose him (whether they tried or not is unknown)

Legoland forces:

- 1 settler (one used for fort Stanwix, next to (former?) GoW stack)
- 17 worker (+3)
- 3 horsemen
- 2 explorer (+2 B)
- 6 Cavalry (-6)
- 94 infantry (+3)
- 62 artillery
- 27 Tanks (+0)
- 6 ironclad
- 15 transport
- 1 carrier
- 8 subs (-2)
- 8 DD (-1)
- 9 BB
- 2 fighter (+2 B)
- 3 bomber
- 1 army (!)


On your side, this is what we can currently see:

http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=16952_1270ADStanwix.jpg

Fort Stanwix obviously was put down to protect blitzing tanks. But more on that later.

We investigated Abilene:

Cost of investigating Abilene: 209 gold.

http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?file=16952_1270ADAbilene.jpg

troops:
- 1 army of 3 infs
- 50 infs
- 3 cavs
- 8 art
- 2 bombers.

An army means they did attack you, most likely in force. The number of troops left to Lego also suggests that: if they built another 20-odd tanks, they lost those 20 tanks attacking you. Add this to the surviving tanks, and it would be entirely possible that Lego has at least damaged all your infs, and destroyed (the bigger part of) your tanks present on Legoland.

Fort Stanwix has one major strategic advantage: as long as it exists, you will not be able to build a city in the next tile. Which means that unless it is possible to take the city, your tanks en route can't join the fight this turn.

.. cont

Further, we can assume Lego or Vox has a spy with you, seeing what units you've got waiting. We don't know the precise information, but unless you already have a stack of marines present somewhere, they will know that Dye fields and Jackson can only be attacked by the units you build right now, and 8 at most as you only have 1 possible chainer.

Now it becomes a bit guessing, but given Lego's subs, it is very possible that they even destroyed your 1 TR + 1 DD, and your 4 DD + 1 TR + 1 CV, making chaining impossible for you. This is one of the points where Lego is very right in not giving 'your' battle report before we have played, as it affects the rest in a great way.

Lego knows how many of your tanks remain on Legoland right now. Add to this the amount of marines you can deliver to Legoland this turn through chaining, or landing (they don't know your fleet has no marines, in case you still have some on Bob as of the end of last turn), and they know very precisely what the maximum force is that can attack Jackson or Dye fields. Marines on Legoland can't join the attack if Fort Stanwix is not destroyed.

In short, if all went perfect for Lego, they can make sure Jackson and Dye fields have a perfect defense (even a horse will eat up a marine attack, so Lego only needs 1 horse more then you can deliver marines to both cities). They can use this info, to make sure Fort Stanwix can't be taken (there are already 27 tanks present, and even if those are all 1/4, you will need at least 27 units to capture and destroy it). With Fort Stanwix, Jackson and Dye fields perfectly safe from you, while Abilene is perfectly safe from us, all their other cities can be empty again.

We are of course not certain about this without the battle report. But it seems Lego has played its turn very well, and our combined invasion has hit a major obstacle.

This is only preliminary, we are still debating what to do
next. Going for Quanto would be nice, with a bit of luck we could take that city. But that's only superficial damage, as it would be extremely hard to keep the city next turn. Going for Abilene is out of the question, we maybe could take the city, but only by losing most of our forces, ending the invasion from our side.

The other option is to retreat from your side, and for us to sit it out while you reinforce your troops, RP gets in landing range, and possibly ND could join us.

So, what do you think?

cont ...

Oh, and if you could tell us if you had some more marines, we would appreciate it, as it would make the difference here. If Lego's attack was not so successful, this could be a ruse. You could take Fort Stanwix, and with cavs could even take Legopolis if that's not defended properly. Or Fort Stanwix could be nearly empty, while Lego protects the surrounding cities (all of these options would still make it necessary for them to protect Abilene with 50 infs plus an army, as it basically makes sure we are at least 2 turns from taking our first city)

Update (the above was typed before we decided to investigate Fort Stanwix):

[Master Zen]

Part III (last one)

Update (the above was typed before we decided to investigate Fort Stanwix):

Investigating Fort Stanwix. Cost: 38g.
http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?...estigation.jpg

troops:
- 4 2/5 T
- 2 3/5 T
- 3 4/5 T
- 1 3/4 T
- 2 1/4 T
- 20 I
- 29 art
- 3 Cav

- It only is apparant to me now, but Lego has put more forest in the way, here at Legopolis 3 and Dye 47.

- there are 12 damaged tanks in the city. I can only guess that this means the other 15 tanks Lego had were too damaged after their first attack to let them blitz again.

- there is, however, also a 3/4 tank present. Leftover from a pillaging job before? Or a reg one, who blitzed? (most likely the second option)

- Apart from the 15 unaccounted for tanks, there are 21 unaccounted for infs, and 25 arts. Maybe Quanto has a token force, otherwise I'd guess Jackson and Dye both have 7 tanks, 10 infs, 12 arts (+1 to make it even).

- Even if Lego seems to be fairly certain about keeping Fort Stanwix, they aren't 100% certain GoW can't break through (why the forests, unless that's a ruse). Maybe all the tanks have been destroyed (or only few remain), but most of the other forces were not. It is impossible to guess precisely how many units they killed, but we could probably put some maximum and minimum numbers on this.

-----------

Assuming maximum 20 new tanks were built (the max we saw was 26 units in one turn, and they built 3 workers, 2 explorers, 2 fighters, 3 inf), how many units has Lego killed?

Total: 47 tanks, of which 27 survived.

- we know 12 units blitzed and survived. 24 units killed.
- we know 15 units did not blitz and survived. 15 units killed.
- of the other 20, maximally they could have killed one unit each, after which they died in the second attack.

So, maximum of 59 units killed, while the minimum is 39 units. (maybe less of course, if they use full health tanks as defenders. We know a guaranteed kill of 23, simply counting the elites and damaged units.)

There could have been a couple cav kills as well, but I doubt very much Lego has used any of them in an attack.

GoW had 42 I, 16 T, 34 M, 27 Art in their stack. There is no way all of them are gone, somewhere between 92-59 = 33 and 92-23 = 69 units remain. Most likely somewhere in the middle, being some 40 units, partly damaged, with at least an attack rate of 6 (infs). Lego has 35 units in Fort Stanwix.

With the already damaged units of Lego, GoW's 16 (?) bombers and 27 arts, they probably got a good chance of taking Stanwix.

-------------

We currently are discussing options, but there is a good chance that you can do a lot of damage this turn, in case you can take Fort Stanwix. It would mean that you put almost all your remaining troops at risk, including the 27 arts. And it won't change a lot for us: we would feel the full brunt of Lego's attack next turn, without being able to do a lot of damage. Allow us some time to discuss this, and come up with a coherent plan. If your losses are greater than expected, too bad, but otherwise Lego might have given us (well, more precisely you) an opening we've got to exploit. These guys are playing far too well to let any half chances slip.

DeepO