1270 AD Orders - Will our stack survive?

[Master Zen]

This is what I replied to them:

Well, as expected, Lego is playing flawlessly this will be quite the challange. Depending on the number of our tanks that Lego destroyed we can know if taking Ft. Stanwick is viable or not, we will have available - barring significant naval losses which is unlikely - 20 bombers and 27 artilleries which could hit the city, and then barrage it with whatever units we still have standing.

Taking Stanwix would basically open the door for our remaining 40+ tanks and we could with settlers perhaps reach Legopolis. But 20 Infs are 20 Infs and it's likely that Dye Fields and Jackson house the remaining Infs making it pretty pointless to attack them.

Lego's attack likely left the Marines untouched. That's 34 units which are pretty much expendable at this point and could sufficiently damage the defenders. The infantry are likely damaged from artillery and tank attack. If our 16 tanks end up undamaged then I'd say there's a chance to take the city after a 47-unit bombardment. I'll do some calculations in a while.

As a very very very backup plan, we'll likely resort to building more carriers and bombers and just bomb them back into the stone age, that should at least screw their chances of winning the game.

I'll see what else comes to my mind in the next couple of hours and I'll PM you guys later.

-MZ

[Hot_Enamel]

Briliant play by Lego.

Vondrack is damn good.

[Jon Shafer]

But not perfect...

[Hot_Enamel]

When I first saw this ... the first thing I thought of was Trip

[Master Zen]

But Lego's not the only one to get lucky:

This just in:

We chained 8 Arty over, pounded the 3 BBs outside the otherwise-naked Quanto and slammed 9 transports (and a destroyer) against them. We broke through! I'm not sure yet what we do from here but DeepO reckons we might get a shot at taking out the FP.

Lego decided to put the 2/4 BB into Quanto to 'heal'. If they'd left it outside Quanto would probably have held.

-Cort

Guess they ain't "perfect"

[Hot_Enamel]

No-one said they were perfect.

Placing that city next to our stack was a tactic I had never seen before. It was a good move.

I wonder if GS will withhold their battle report until Lego's turn ?
Thus making it a little more difficult for Vox to choose/guess what to spy on.

[Master Zen]

So, in the meantime...

How many Tanks could Lego have built this turn? At their most they have built 13 in one turn... and that was by disbanding an almost equal number of cavalry. This turn they only disbanded 6 Cavs.

So assuming they had circa 40 tanks available, that means they lost about 13 attacking us. They also had at the most 56 artilleries available for bombing our stack. That means that all our infantry and 12 of our tanks could have been hit by Arty, 4 of those tanks could then have been hit directly by Lego tanks with the rest of the hits being on the Infantry and the Marines.

That's quite a bloodshed...

[Master Zen]

More stuff to fathom, from Cort and DeepO:

Hi MZ,

DeepO was up till 6.30 working on what follows. I have posted my concern about the plan on our forum this morning (step 11 - surely bombard doesn't destroy forest) but DeepO won't see it for a while yet. Anyway - here is the plan ....


-Cort


___________________________

GoW / MZ,

A situation update, how we are doing.
As already mentioned, we took a calculated risk, chained 8 arts to Legoland, bombarded the 3 BBs blocking our entrance to Quanto, and together with a fighter bombing and a 2/4 DD attacking, we managed to get the BBs down to 1/5, and 2 2/5 BBs. At this point, it seemed certainly worth it to go at it with our transports (11 empties waiting nearby)... we managed to beat the BB stack, and even have 4, possibly 5 transports ready to get troops into Quanto. Right now, we're debating what to do, and this will certainly take another day to get right. What is certain, is that we've got a pretty good idea on where the FP is (at Logville 77774, in case you're interested), and we can get there for sure. That city is gone.

The rest will depend on what we'll encounter. So far, it seems that we can reach at least 4 other cities, maybe even more. We can take Sandonorico, but that's as far up North as we can get. And we can't reach a couple of their Southern, and Eastern most cities. Again, as we don't have their map, we can't say this for sure, but it certainly looks that way.

So, our turn is not over yet, but by taking a risk on those BBs, Lego is going to bleed. We have no intention at all to try to hold on to what we conquer, as it would spread our defenses way too thin. Also, we still have most of Lego's army to worry about, which is still in Abilene. But we were here to damage Lego enough to keep them from ever becoming a player again, and this turn, we are going to do our share to accomplish that. Any further gains (land, resources, etc.) will be decided in the next 5 turns, but we doubt we're going to see the same rush again, or Lego should start to be stupid in how they play (and they most certainly have not done that so far).

But now, on to your side.

About attacking Fort Whatsit (). You mention that in case you still have some tanks left, you want to attack the fort. Well, forget about that. You will have enough units left, and with your bombing capacity, you can most likely get most of those units redlined. A marine against a 1/4 inf is a sure kill, so don't think your marines are all of a sudden worthless! We don't think there is any option, you simply will have to push through. You will never have such a chance again. Lego slipped, and if you don't beat them to death, they will recuperate. GS taking out the FP will be nice, but if they lose half of their cities, including nearly all of their core, including their palace and FP, they are dead.

So, now is not the time to think about consolidating your forces: ever single unit you can, should join into the attack. That means every bomber you can spare, every artillery you can spare. If that means exposing your artillery, so that Lego is certain to capture it next turn, so be it. It will be well worth the cost (also to us, as those arties would be turned against us more likely than against you). If this means it is your last turn on Legoland, as Lego can kill all what is left of your invasion force, so be it. It is but a small price to pay. And we're not so far yet, as we've got a plan, which will make it possible for you to have a more or less decent invasion force next turn (or at least the turn thereafter). So please, study this carefully, and tell us what you think.

There are a couple of assumptions here. First one: Lego was not as lucky as they could have been, killing the maximum of your troops (59), leaving only 33 troops in your stack (outside arties). It would be extremly hard for them, though... not only does it mean they succeeded in every single fight, but they would have needed to build 20 units during last turn as well (and as we both pointed out, the number is probably closer to 15, meaning a maximum of 49 units killed)
Furhter, Aeson pointed out something else: tanks, retreating from infs would be kept alive as well. Every tank retreating, distracts another 2 from the maximum. So, we find this a safe assumption: you will have a minimum of 40 units left in your stack, most likely closer to 60.

Assumption 2: Lego has left its cities, which they think you can't reach, empty. Again, this seems logical to assume. Quanto was empty, which we had a direct path of attack to. So why would they leave a door open for us, if they would have closed it for you? Another indication is planting the forests: on our side, one forest was planted, for you two. Indeed, by only using cavs, those forests make no further protection necessary, even if Stanwix would fall. It seems as Lego had overseen the settler blitz method in its defense.

Third assumption: You didn't lose all your possible chainers. But that seems a long stretch, as it means 2 separate stacks have to be destroyed, of at least 6 ships.

Fourth assumption: you don't get the longest strike of bad luck, ever seen in a Civ game (I'm talking 3 tanks in a row losing against a single spear). If that happens, no plan will be any good.

So, the plan.
1. We still don't know if you have 8 cavs left on Bob, or not. If you don't have them, break into the build queue at first possible moment, and make sure you will build 8 of them. Pollution might strike, so build at least 9. Pollution might strike where you intend to build the chaining transport, so make sure that build is safe as well. In case you don't get there, sacrifice defenders (you can do this from within the city view screen, during build phase)

2. Use all bombers to bombard Stanwix. Use all artillery to bomb Stanwix. In case yuo're lucky, and 1/4 units start defending before all your artillery bombardments are gone, wait a bit. There are a couple of cavs you might want to hit later on, before attacking them.

3. Use all your units to get through. Marines should probably attack first (8 attack is not so bad, plus they are likely to have some good health left), wounded tanks last (possible to take out 2 cavs with a 1/4 tank, but a 2/4 inf is much less likely).

4. At this point, we assume you will have conquered Stanwix. Most likely, you will have got over half your troops left, normally including some defenders, and some tanks.

5. Now, the settler blitz. Raze Stanwix.

6. Build the city, with the settler on Legoland. Let's call it city 1.

7. Unload all your waiting troops into city 1. chain your 8 cavs into city 1.

8. move 8 cavs, 4 settlers, and 5 tanks to where Stanwix used to be. The rest stays put for the moment (note: this might be changed, but more on that later)

9. Raze city 1.

10. build city 2 with one of the settlers.

11. City 2 will have 29 captured artillery from taking Stanwix. Use that to destroy the forest (taking the road and RR with you). Move a tank, to capture the 3 workers present (they build a forest last turn). Legopolis should be empty, walk in, and enjoy the celebrations of capturing Bach's and Smith's. Restore the road with the workers.

12. move everything to Legopolis 4 (so the 8 cavs, 3 settlers, and a couple of tanks).

13. raze Legopolis. Build city 3 at Legopolis 4.

14. from here, a cav can reach Panama.

15. from Panama, a cav can reach Port Hammer.

16. From city 3, a cav can reach Kloreepville.

17. Move everything to Kloreepville 4. Raze kloreepville. Build City 4 at kloreepville 4.

18. from here, a cav can reach Invoice.

19. From City 4, a cav can reach Sharpehaven.

20. From Sharpehaven, a cav can reach Forkmouth.

Don't worry about Sandonorico, we will have conquered that by that time.

This leaves 2 cavs, a couple of tanks, and a settler. You still have an open RR connection to City 1, so in case you need more tanks, you can get them easily. This will have destroyed all we currently can see on the map. You can scout out more... a cav and a settler can cross a distance of 5 tiles. A tank and a settler can cross a distance of 4 tiles. Tanks can go 3. So, at the very least, you will be able to take another 3 cities with you, most likely more.

In total, at least 11 cities (including Fort Stanwix) are either gone, or under your control.

Now comes the sad part... there is no way you can defend these. You've got enough troops to defend one city, maybe (but that would be risking it) 2. Also, you will have 27 arts, and a lot of wounded units on the place where you built City 1. It might be a good idea, to spend your last settler on rebuilding that city: so move the settler into position, move everything with movement left over there, destroy city 2, and build city 5 where city 1 used to be.

Don't forget, with the captured arts, you have now > 50 arts to protect, and only have something like 30 tanks to do so.

However, this does not mean Lego can just wipe you out. You will have taken 12 tanks, leaving only 15 tanks of Lego, most likely distributed over Jackson and Dye fields. With your razing - and ours - they could at most build 10 more next turn. You have plenty of units, artillery and tanks, left to pillage all the roads leading to your position (if you don't build a city, build a fort. You will have tons of slaves from all the razing). Only 25 tanks at most to attack you, and some 50 units remaining before they can get to the artillery. You will be safe.

there are a couple of variations here.
- You could defend one city, but that will probably mean you will lose your 27 artillery. While your task might done, it wouldn't make ours any easier
- It could be so that Legopolis is defended. (it should be scouted out for sure). In that case, either bombard it with the freshly captured artilleries (exposing them), or simply put your 36 tanks against them. Legopolis will fall.
- You could try to hold on to Legopolis (it has two important wonders), But that is risking it: it has a high chance of flipping back to them. Plus, in that case, you can't reach Panama, one of their most core cities and likely candidate for the palace jump.

One other thing: you are going to receive loads of money from this. Not only does Lego still has 1200 gold in treasury, but also every city you raze, improvements can be sold beforehand. A factory (of which you're going to encounter at least 9) is 60 gold... this counts up. We wouldn't dare to ask if you could let some of that gold slip our way (for giving you any ideas or so ), but perhaps we could help each other: we are short on cash, and both of us could be helped if we would steal Lego's map right now (it costs 336 gold, which is about everything we can spare. Otherwise we would propose to do some investigation for you as well). Maybe you could pay us this turn turn, for our stealing now, and in return you get a perfect roadmap of where your cavs and settlers might take you.

I hope this will be of some help.

DeepO

Addendum: there is some concern on our team if you are certain to take Stanwix or not, and seeing the criticality of this, it would make a difference to know for sure. In case you don't have enough troops, we might be able to come to your help, but all this hangs together with a lot of ifs, and thens. We don't know for certain, but we might be able to hop our way to Fort Stanwix, reaching it with something close to 30 tanks. We can take a couple of cities doing so, but those 30 tanks are non-recuperable, and it would most probably mean we can't take the FP. Further, we need to take a couple of cities, which you get 'for free' once you would get Fort Stanwix.

To be certain, there is a relatively unconventional question we need to ask. If you know your troop strength of last turn (which you do, otherwise just open last turn's save to check it), we could enter a spy into you. Or at least, we can try (not certain it succeeds). For those 147 gold pieces, we will have our private battle report... So, do you want us to spy on you? After that, Lego could keep their battle reports from us, we still would have a pretty good idea what is going on.

[Master Zen]

And here's the good news:

Things are getting very bad for Lego. We've taken Quanto, then Nou Camp (!), Sando, Karina (FP we believe) and Oasis with our first settler. If you guys break out of Fort Whatsit with 8 Cavs + tanks Lego could be down to Jackson, Dye Fields and Abileine when they open the save.

Our only concern is that if the save crashes, the naval victory might not be reproducable on replay. 'Passive' RNG events - possibly from random messages on the diplo screen or other events might have made the outcome a freak, as so far Trip has not been able to reproduce the outcome. DeepO will try to reproduce after the turn is saved. Meanwhile, fingers crossed we get the job done without a crash!

-Cort

LEGO IS ****ED IN THE ASS!!!!

[Hot_Enamel]

1.

You will have tons of slaves from all the razing).

If we capture the cities, sell the impovments, then raze them, we dont get slaves.
You only get slaves by razing as soon as the city is captured.


2. As mentioned, you cant destroy a forest with artillary.


I think we attack Stanwix if we have a chance of breaking through.

I was thinking about alternatives.
ie retreating & pillaging.
Then they cant stop us from building a city.

Or choosing another landing site & pillaging, so again, they cant build a city.

But this was if we had no chance of taking Stanwix.



About GS inserting a spy in us ....
Thats up to them.

Better put ND on notice that they may need to attack GS soon.
Damn they are good.

[Master Zen]

ND has begun mobilizing during the last 2 turns precisely for something against GS. Howver, with MI's it will a bit dificult to take a city first-hand. I had suggested that we wait for nukes and just nuke the crap out of them and then win the game. Also consider that our combined power will dwarf GS. Either of us has higher manufacturing than GS, still I strongly suspect GS could turn against us I mean hell, that's what I'd do.

[Master Zen]

Latest from GS:

Farmerville, Forkmouth, Red Bricks, Tarzania ...

latest pic : http://apolyton.net/upload/view.php?...fterOasis8.jpg

Yeah, we're hoping to relieve you guys at Stanwitcza!

First, the GoW stack , then the results of our tank attack.

GoW stack
- 26 marines
- 2 reg marines
- 1 3/5 marine
- 26 artillery (shouldn't that be 27?)
- 1 settler
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 17 2/4 inf
- 1 2/5 inf
- 1 1/4 inf

The battle for Fort Stanwix
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment fails. Inf killed. Tank 3/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment fails. Inf killed. Tank 3/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank killed. Inf 1/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank retreats (1/4), inf 4/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank destroyed, inf 1/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank retreats (1/4). Inf 4/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank destroyed. Inf promotes
to 2/5.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank destroyed. Inf 4/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment fails. Inf killed, tank 3/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Inf killed. Tank 3/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank destroyed. Inf 2/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank retreats (1/4). Inf 2/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment hits. Tank destroyed. Inf promotes
to 4/5.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment fails. Inf killed. Tank 3/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment fails. Tank retreats (1/4). Inf 2/4.
Tank attacks inf. defensive bombardment fails. Inf killed. Tank 2/4.

Total: 16 Tank attacks. 10 succesful defensive bombardments. 6 infs killed.
6 tanks killed.
[/quote]


I'm currently subracting the losses to see what stands at Stanwix.

[Master Zen]

this is what stands:

- 9 I
- 2 1/4 I
- 3 2/4 I
- 4 2/5 T
- 2 3/5 T
- 3 4/5 T
- 1 3/4 T
- 2 1/4 T
- 3 Cav

29 Units.

This is what we got:


- 26 4-HP Marines
- 3 3-HP Marines
- 1 3-HP Tanks
- 2 2-HP Tanks
- 18 2-HP Inf

40 Units

We'll need to see if our bombardment is VERY LUCKY and only then we'll be able to get something out of this... also consider that they have artillery support.

One question: does artillery only hit once on the defensive? Because they spent 16 arty bombardments vs. GS so if they don't repeat that meanst they only have 13 available vs. us (better odds).

40 Units.

[Hot_Enamel]

Ouch


MZ - remove the bold for the pic.
Its screwing up the link

[Master Zen]

Done. So, whaddaya think of the odds?