The Pyramid Replacement Poll

[DeepO]

We could get Theo in 10 turns when trading from Lego. Ourselves, we should be able to get it in 7 or 8 turns, which leaves enough room to keep the prebuild going, maybe putting the city to disorder for 1 turn if neccesary.

Colossus prebuild: the only real possibility is Lego's Panama, which is currently at size 6, if the screenies are still up to date. It would be a good Colossus city, having a river.

If we want Leo's, we need to start a prebuild asap, others will certainly want it too. We can get it in Hurricane in 20 turns, and 20 turns is from now on about all we'll need to get to invention. (engineering? I always swap those two)

DeepO

[Aeson]

One question: you say you think that we would lose the Colossus. Why? What other civ has a high production coastal city?

Panama is probably the biggest competitor (4 mined hills, one with Iron), but then again Lego's Pyramid city may be on the coast as well. Panama could be on the prebuild right now. They are at size 6 without culturally expanded borders... so if they are building something there it's probably mililtary or a wonder.

I'd like to see us finish a wonder this turn. Build 1 turn troops until the tide turns at which point we may be able to turn two 30 shield per turn cities to wonders/improvements. When Arashi and Tempest are up to full capacity.

The most likely wonder we can build at that point is the Great Lighthouse, 10 turns, which would probably put us with it at the end of our GA, and when the Chivalry wars (GoW is going to take ~10 turns researching it, then add in their government transition time, few more for upgrading and positioning) are most likely to be breaking out.

The problem is we lose the Collosus if we do it that way (and don't build the Collosus now), because we only have 1 coastal production city. Hurricane has a good shot of spitting out ~5 units and then still getting the Collosus. EotS or Tempest both have decent shots at Sun Tzu's or Leo's if they can start in 5-10 turns.

If we really want Sun Tzu's and/or Leo's, another option is the Great Library. Why? Because GoW's prebuild is most likely for Sun Tzu's or Leo's, and it's in their Capitol. If we finish the Great Library... what do they have to build? The Great Wall (200 shields, and starts their GA), or The Hanging Gardens(300 shields). This guarantees us of at least one competitor (and the surest one at that) that will be 100-200 shields behind on the prebuild for Sun Tzu's and/or Leo's, or that we force their hand right now (in which case we'd know if it comes time to use a leader).

This has the benefit of giving us a good shot at the Great Lighthouse, a definite boost to income short term for upgrades and rushing, helps our culture, guarantees we get Chivalry, Theology, and Education, so we are free to research up the other path when ready. There doesn't have to be any sort of diplomatic problem with it either, because we can still offer the researcher something in exchange for the tech, and we have a temperary fallback position (that will give us Knights and Universities at least) if an embargo does get put in place. If no embargo, we are likely to get better deals, and have the opportunity to sho show that we aren't looking to take advantage of anyone.

If we did that, I'd be in favor of Tornado switching to a Palace prebuild (15 shields per turn) to get the Collosus. It's a pretty good location for it, as 6 of the tiles it will be using are going to be coasts, making up for the lack of a river.

This in essense is a compromise between the units now and delay for wonder. Hurricane (30 shields per turn) is freed up for unit production, in exchange for a 15 shield per turn city, and we still have a pretty good shot at the Collosus (14 turns in Tornado) + Great Lighthouse (10 turns in Hurricane). The timing will be pretty good, as Hurricane will finish the Great Lighthouse a turn or two after the Collosus finishes.

--------------------

So my vote goes for the Great Library, start the Collosus prebuild in Tornado, produce units in Hurricane until the tide turns, and then switch Hurricane to the Great Lighthouse. Hopefully followed shortly by switching EotS or Tempest to Sun Tzu's/Leo's.

[Arrian]

If we really want Sun Tzu's and/or Leo's, another option is the Great Library. Why? Because GoW's prebuild is most likely for Sun Tzu's or Leo's, and it's in their Capitol. If we finish the Great Library... what do they have to build? The Great Wall (200 shields, and starts their GA), or The Hanging Gardens(300 shields). This guarantees us of at least one competitor (and the surest one at that) that will be 100-200 shields behind on the prebuild for Sun Tzu's and/or Leo's, or that we force their hand right now (in which case we'd know if it comes time to use a leader).

I was thinking the same thing, btw. Nailing the GL now would most likely break the cascade, forcing GoW to build the HG or GW.

-Arrian

[Theseus]

That all makes me very uncomfortable... too many variables for other teams to take advantage of, including flipping in and out of Palace pre-builds and other Wonders.

I don;t buy the whole unit production argument anyway... if that were the issue, why not instead focus Monsoon, say, on units, cash-rushing?

Nor do I think the GL is all the great... again, we are not going to launch an attack on BOB short of Caravels.

Sun Tzu.

[Aeson]

GoW's wonder (GL at this point) can't be changed to a Palace. They can switch to Sun Tzu's directly, but if they are expecting war soon, maybe they will just take the GW and get their GA up and running ASAP. It gets them to Chivalry faster, free's up their best production city for units (and for them, they don't have any other 1 turn unit producers at this point, so it's a bigger deal than it is for us). I'm not sure which they want, Sun Tzu's would help them most long run, but they are in serious jeopardy of not having a long run if ND puts together many more Ansars than they can put together Riders. The GL would help GoW as they could do more upgrades and not have to worry about falling terribly behind. It might be worth more than the unit production they are passing up.

The other civs are all mostly unknowns. Lego is probably the other main competitor for wonders, and they seem to care more about the 'enlightened' ones. I would think their next wonder is the Collosus, with the option of switching to Sistene. They could have the FP going as another prebuild as well.

I can't guess as to Roleplay other than they seem to be focusing on military units, walls, and the like. Most of their cities aren't all that well positioned from a corruption standpoint, so wonder production may not even have entered their minds. Madrid is their only city that looked set up to have a shot at a Wonder at the time of our Map and we could tell if they were building one there... Sun Tzu's is a possibility for them, but they need numbers right now to hold off Riders and/or Ansars. They aren't really a threat for the Collosus or Great Lighthouse with only 1 smallish coastal city that didn't have any mined hills as of our Map, no Harbor for growth, and would need an Aquaduct to really compete for one of the middle age wonders.

ND isn't a threat for coastal wonders either, their only city on the shore being size 2. Leo's and/or Sun Tzu's would both be good targets for them. Again, they have to worry about GoW putting together more Riders than they have Ansars though. 600 shields is 20 horses to upgrade and/or take out stragglers... Gow and ND production seems relatively balanced. If one goes for a Wonder and the other doesn't, it could very easily be game over for the Wonder civ.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Theseus
I don;t buy the whole unit production argument anyway... if that were the issue, why not instead focus Monsoon, say, on units, cash-rushing?

Until we have this war in hand, every city should be on units and cash rushing.

Call me Cato.

Vox delenda est!

[Dominae]

nye, you're right that the faster we take care of Vox, the faster we're back to pure economy. But I seriously think this is minor compared to the advantage one of the Bobian civs gets (either Glory of War or Neu Demogyptica) by building Sun Tzu.

Put yourself in a Bobian teams' shoes: which Wonder would you pick, if you had a nice prebuild at this point. I would think Sun Tzu and Leonardo's are the two big candidates. We have the chance to take away one of the two Wonders that can hurt us the most here, let's not throw it away.

The Great Lighthouse strikes me as a very odd choice. If I were GoW or ND or RP, I would laugh long and hard at GS when they completed it. "Oh, they're planning to invade us really fast, I guess we'll just have to repel their War Chariots and few Knights instead of a more decisive force. And look! If I'm GoW or ND, I have a UU to help me!". I'm not trying to put down anyone's opinion here, I'm just having a hard time figuring out why the Great Lighthouse is worth it even as an afterthought.


Dominae

[asleepathewheel]

Part of me is going to laugh my ass off if Vox crests that mountain with 15 immortals this turn. The other part is going to cry.

I think people here are underestimating Vox. Or more precisely underestimating Vox being controlled by RP. We are basically fighting two economies here, as I am sure that RP is bankrolling this operation.

There are two workers south of D'ville and four immortals. I would bet my life that the immortals are there to protect the workers, who are probably building a road (why I don't know, but why else have them there?) AFter the road is built, what 2 turns? then the mass will move down. They are masking their true force in D'ville. I bet there are 15 immortals in that city alone.

Can we survive a single assault by 15 immortals? Yes, of course. But we will lose Arashi and possibly more cities.

We can't afford to lose anything in this war if we wish to maintain parity with Bob.

I am dismayed that people would be thinking long term here when we haven't even guaranteed our short term survival.

This is not the AI. There are good players on both RP and Vox. And really, all vox has to do now is a all out melee, few decisions for them otherwise. unless a galley landing to the east like they've already performed.

We have better generals than they do. We have better micromangers than they do. We have a stronger empire than they do. But they have suprise (sort of-that immortal landing to the east has proved the worst move of the game, triggering our GA) and that will be enough to significantly injure our country. No, it won't destroy us, because We can outlast their onslaught. But if we lose two or three cities, then we are set back considerably. I expect that they will raze the first few cities they capture, in order to permanently injure us, I'm sure a scorched earth policy is what RP is advocating, figuring they can wound us and then move in for the kill.

To that end, we need units. if they take 4 turns to reach the front, thats four more units on defense and counter from hurricane, which might be enough to win the day.

Seven units Hurricane can produce. Seven. Thats roughly equivalent to half our standing offensive army right now (total: 13 units)


This is not the point in time to think long term, as there might not be a long term. We have to insure our survival NOW. Desperate times call for desperate measures, we will lose Sun Tzus (hey we could get a leader for it, after all). But such a sacrifice pales in comparison to the price of losing a city or two or three and the defending units. After all, if they break Arashi, we don't have any back up units to defend anything with. Everytying is there, and a 15 immortal attack can break it.

[notyoueither]

Dominae.

I think we are running the risk of loosing the whole thing if we are underestimating Vox one last, tragic time.

I don't think our denying Bob a useful wonder will be very useful to us should we loose, or get bogged in a prolonged war.

Vox delenda est!

PS.
The more committed combatant has the better chances to win.
Clausewitz

[Dominae]

What evidence do we have that Vox has over 10 Immortals? If they really had 15 Immortals right now, surely they would have positioned them earlier, and advanced on us with their uber-stack; I see no point in waiting if this is indeed the case. On the other hand, if they have around, say 8-10 Immortals (with more on the way), we can beat them easily.

Declaring war on us means they're committed, so we cannot expect to roll over them. But if they're committed, they would not wait to attack us, since they know we're in our GA and therefore can out-produce them.


Dominae

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Dominae
What evidence do we have that Vox has over 10 Immortals? If they really had 15 Immortals right now, surely they would have positioned them earlier, and advanced on us with their uber-stack; I see no point in waiting if this is indeed the case. On the other hand, if they have around, say 8-10 Immortals (with more on the way), we can beat them easily.

Declaring war on us means they're committed, so we cannot expect to roll over them. But if they're committed, they would not wait to attack us, since they know we're in our GA and therefore can out-produce them.


Dominae

we have hard intel on 10 immortals currently I believe. We also have seen another 2 warriors after the war started (or who could not have withdrawn so quickly)

Is that all they have? I doubt it.

[asleepathewheel]

As there is a significant division in our ranks on this issue, and we still have much time to decide, as ND hasn't returned the save yet, would it be wise to have a poll with just the two options, thus one would be guaranteed a majority (or a tie I suppose)?

As all of the actives have chimed in on the issue, I don't think it would be premature to eliminate the Library from the discussion, and I think those two votes should be opened back up. Plus, opinions might have changed in the interim.

Bad idea?

[notyoueither]

I think the real first question is to finish a wonder now, or continue building one.

That is the crux of the matter.

/Edit. Vox delenda est!

[Aeson]

If they are waiting for the road, that's 3 extra turns for us. We can handle 15 Immortals with 3 extra turns (I was thinking 20 to prepare for, and I think we're really close to that with 3 extra turns). Check the combat calculators for how Immortals deal with Pikes (or even 2 defense troops) fortified on Mountains or in a Hill town with walls. It isn't pretty, especially considering at least some of their Immortals are going to be regs... and most of our Pikes would upgrade to Elites before they get killed. They stand to lose 60-120 shields for every 30 we lose. That's with us producing 60-90 shields for every 30 they do.

If they try to bypass Arashi, they run into the same problem in Tempest and we can force them out of the mountains again for strikes with fast movers, or force them to plow through Pikes on Mountains/Hills. That also gives us that many more turns to be pumping out Pikes/Horses/WC's. They could probably then take Arashi, as we'd have our forces split, but the cost will guarantee the stack would break.

If they hold off and start to cross for EotS, that gives us more time for more units, and opens up their stacks to our fast movers. They could get to EotS probably, but they couldn't take it (our units can use roads to leapfrog their stack), and their stack would in terrible shape by that point (probably 5-10 dead, equal number at various stages of wounded), ready to be slaughtered by a final punch of Med Inf which we could hold back until then, combined with surviving fast mover forces.

[asleepathewheel]

Aeson-

You make very good points.

If we had to destroy 15 immortals, how many units would we lose, med inf and wcs? I think we also need the 7 units for a counterstrike, we don't want to wait for their forces to be rebuilt whilst building our invasion forces.