DIPLO: Legoland Comments

[Arrian]

I think it's safe to say that at this point, the outcome of this whole thing is quite uncertain.

We don't know how ND & GoW will react to our presence. One or both may declare war. If they do, Lego should keep in mind that war is unpredictable. I honestly don't know if we can beat them. RP won't be all that much help... I expect most of their army to be destroyed just trying to hold off ND's main stack.

Therefore, long-range planning is really somewhat of a crapshoot. Sure, we can speculate on all sorts of things, but the reality is that between the uncertainty of GoW/ND's reaction to our involvement, the fickle nature of the RNG, and the other vagueries of war, nobody knows how this is going to end up.

-Arrian

[asleepathewheel]

What are legos commitments that we know of?

We know they won't attack RP before 1000AD

We know that they have an agreement with GoW and ND not to land on Bob, but it is voidable by Lego and ND???

We have a lux deal and a tech deal and no sistine?


Does RP have a don't land on Bob pact with them as well? I could easily see lego pulling some blocking maneuvers against us, similar to what we are doing. The difference being that Nd is so reclusive, would they go for it? I'm sure GoW would if they were the first to get smacked.

Should we try to get an agreement that they wouldn't interefere with our war? Doubtful they would go for that, more of a don't land units, don't accept cities. hmm, I doubt they would take that, but it might be worth a shot.

[DeepO]

Very true, Arrian. We do not know the outcome of this war. I don't think RP is in such bad shape (they can defend against one stack, just not to two), but we will have to coordinate, and they need to fall back. With bad luck, though, this war can be over before we get there...

Lego's commitment:
- no attack of RP until 1000 AD (but I wouldn't bet on them keeping their promise if they see a major opening)
- no Sistine clause with (nearly) everybody
- lux deal and tech deal with us
- ND has a no-land-on-Bob pact, RP is uncertain (but not likely). GoW I strongly doubt they have even a NAP with. I'm sure that if ND wants to waive the no-land clause of their NAP, Lego will certainly do it. This does not mean they will land, though
- Legoland are in name builders, in reality opportunists which see they can gain most by concentrating on building first.

Legoland is not going to block us like we're doing with GoW. They still beleive we need to be kept as friends. Blocking us would simply mean we take the cities, and they face the threat of the largest army around, without the means of invading our home turf. If they get into this war, it will be with a large army, not with the kind of 'dear to attack us and you're dead' tactic we're using

DeepO

[vulture]

They get the means to invade our home turf in the near future though - they are researching astronomy and can go for navigation next if they feel an urgent need to send an army to visit us. They could be arriving in less than 20 turns.

[Velociryx]

Oye! Some interesting tidings of late! Been doing some catch-up reading here (and thanks for the heads up, Master Theseus!)....looks like Gathering Storm is prepping to expand again.....awesome!

-=Vel=-

[Arrian]

Yeah, Vel, we've actually already expanded a bit (two RP cities gifted to us last turn).

-Arrian

[DeepO]

Hi Vel! How are things, still so busy?

It has been extreme the past few days, it has a lot in common with the beginning of the Vox war. The only difference is that we're now looking at how we can use our exisiting force best, instead of trying our best to defend with a tiny military, while building a somewhat decent one

DeepO

[Velociryx]

Ahhhh, so we've already got a toe-hold on Bob then....that must KILL our rivals (who were already scared of us before).

-=Vel=-

[Arrian]

Well, ND and GoW asked us to help destroy RP, but were unwilling to agree to allow us to keep cities. Our basic reaction was "**** that." Granted, GoW was trying to work something out, but then we got an offer from RP that we couldn't refuse.

Now it's a bit of a race... we have to get forces into position to prevent the destruction of RP by ND. GoW and GS have a NAP, which GoW says they will respect (we'll see how that goes as things progress). So, best case, we team with RP to defeat ND's invasion force, we do a bit of strategic blocking on the GoW front.

If we pull this off, the rewards are big. But it isn't gonna be easy.

-Arrian

[Velociryx]

So....it's a two against two slugfest for the future of Bob (or, 1.5 v. 2 if GoW maintains the non aggression pact. MOST interesting! I'd love to see the latest screenie of the front, if anybody has one...

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

Temp threadjack reply to DeepO! Yep....still pure craziness...I've not had much time to devote to CB in the past couple weeks on account of the move and unpacking, but....I'm getting closer...

-=Vel=-

[DeepO]

and here I hoped that in the calmer period of summer, GS would slow down, so I could get up to date with CB again Bad luck, it seems... oh well, the summer hasn't finished yet, so please guys, let's finish Bob early...

DeepO

[DeepO]

Okay, we're going to need to contact Lego soon. So could we plan what they are going to hear? Tomorrow, I won't have time to chat, and Friday most likely neither, but I can send a few PMs from work. If this is not how to do it, somebody else will need to chat to Lego.

Things we need contact for (and no, we can't be silent to them):
1. We need to hear what they think about our invasion. Vondrack mentioned that his first impression was a worried one, and I can imagine. Now they probably have a better idea what the group opinion is going to be. We need to find this out asap, to avoid getting caught in an Lego invasion
2. Lego and Vox are going to see the war between RP and us, and the switching nationality of Inchon. We must avoid them spilling this either in public, or in private
3. We should avoid Lego becoming the silent, passive partner of the ND-GoW alliance. They can still investigate cities, we should try to prevent that.

I would like to tell them the following:
1. So far, so good. We seriously disturbed war plans from ND and GoW, and thrown them off balance. This will give time for RP to properly build their defenses
2. ND attacking us was foreseen, and not so bad. For the moment, this means we can keep them out of running over RP. By attacking the two cities, they have shortened the lines RP needs to defend.
3. GoW not attacking us is as we hoped for too. We don't need to get involved in another war, and they are caught in unfavorable terrain. It will take a while before they can start their GA, and by the time they get to RP's cities, hopefully RP is able to keep them out
4. our mutual objectives are reached, in that in the near future, 3 civs will remain on Bob. (Actually, there are four there, but our presence is only a symbolic one)
5. If you want this impasse to remain, please don't actively support ND or GoW, as it will disturb the face-off again. If you decide to help ND or GoW, please do us the favour of giving us some information first. We also don't ask for additional, direct help for 'our side', but you are free to give it, of course. However, this 2 vs 2 war makes it balanced again, and any interaction with either side will cause the scale to tilt again. We're not looking for a full blown war on Bob where one side conquers the other, the whole point of this was to keep the current balance intact, as any side winning the other half of Bob would be a serious threat to either of us 'island nations'.
6. During the next turn, you will see Inchon changing hands to RP, by the time the save will get back to ND, all will be as old again. I can't comment exactly what is happening (I will disclose this in a couple of turns), but could you please not spoil the surprise to either ND or GoW or in public? It is part of our plan to strengthen RP, but without the surprise it will not be effective.
7. If you have formed an opinion on our involvement, please let us know. As said, we still consider you our best hopes for the future, and would hate to see our involvement in Bob turn our relation sour. Any input will be appreciated, and taken into account.
8. Any questions you might have, we're willing to respond to. Of course, you will understand that we can't disclose battle plans, but there is a lot that can be answered.

Finally, there are a couple things they can hear if asked for:
1. We don't like RP. We don't trust RP
2. ND does not have a good idea of what they just got themselves into. But, they declared earlier that this fight was one to the death: RP's death, or ND's death. We're willing to discuss peace terms with them, but not if it means we have to let RP get overrun. We don't hold grudges, nor do we need their territory
3. GoW is in somewhat of a pickle. In order to have a sucessful war, they will have to break either a deal with us, or with ND. If they decide to honor all agreements (which so far they seem to be doing), this war is going to take forever for them. They were diplomatically outmaneuvered, which will certainly not make them happy. I can imagine they complain about RP being puppeteers, as in reality, it is true... but GoW fell into a hole they dug themselves.

Things I will not disclose to Lego at any cost:
1. We land on Bob this turn, with a stack worthy of either ND or GoW. No troop information can be given
2. We're planning to conquer ND, after that it will be either GoW or Lego
3. We have a long term alliance with RP
4. We have more troops then ND and RP combined
5. we're planning on invading ND or GoW (only thing said can be that we're defending RP's land, not that we will go on the offensive)

...

Any comments on this? As said, if we want to keep the Inchon II maneuver hidden, we will have to ask Lego, as they most certainly will disclose it otherwise. Which means we have to ask them before RP sends the save on.
Oh, the things mentioned in the first point were not intended to be said to Lego in one shot, but more over the course of a few PMs. Also, I mention here the max I would be willing to disclose, if it can be done with less, it would be better.

DeepO

[Aeson]

I don't like a lot of it. Lego aren't our lapdogs, and some of what is listed to ask them would come off as us thinking they are. It would be insulting, much like GoW and ND's requests to us given the compensation. At least they offered some form of compensation, here we are just asking Lego to do something for nothing.

I think we should just give them minimal "ND has attacked us, and we are now at war with them" type stuff.

Also, maybe a gift of Incense (Furs?), as an apology for any delays on the tech trading, if we need any reason at all other than friendship. We could mention that the war on Bob will likely cause Luxuries to be untradeable at different times, and this is some assurance against any possible action by GS (or anyone else) that would hurt Lego's trades.

Assume everything said to Lego will be heard by ND/GoW. Lego are going to be looking at us as the one to beat now if they weren't already, and will want to knock us down a peg or two if possible. They were in on the Vox deal almost certainly, expect the same from them now. We can't talk them out of this, it's a decision made by game circumstance... we are bigger than anyone else, and now that we are on Bob, we have more potential than anyone else.

We can't force Lego to not ally against us. We can expect it and plan for it so we won't be caught off guard. We can also avoid giving any information which makes us look weak, avoiding giving it in such a way that makes us look condescending and manipulative. That's as much 'control' as we have over Lego at this point.

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3. GoW not attacking us is as we hoped for too...

If GoW hears this, don't they end up attacking us? If Lego hears this, don't they end up seeing an opportunity to attack us?

It makes us look weak. I'd say something like "Things are progressing much as we planned." 'Hope' insinuates weakness. 'We had hoped GoW wouldn't attack' implies that we are vulnerable to someone else attacking. That or it conveys nothing, as no one ever wants to be attacked.

It would be Lego interpreting this, so all we know is that they would get something that is either harmful to us, or not useful to either of us.

5. If you want this impasse to remain, please don't actively support ND or GoW...

The whole 'lapdog' thing. We look like we are trying to guide Lego policy, rather than just inform and allow them to make their own policy. At the very least it looks condescending and manipulative on our part. Making assumptions for people comes off that way.

We are basically going to war with 2 civs which treated us this way. ND and GoW are going to war with RP (and willing to fight us) because RP treated them this way. Lego already has plenty of reasons to fight against us, they don't need more.

6. During the next turn, you will see Inchon changing hands to RP... but could you please not spoil the surprise to either ND or GoW or in public?

I don't mind informing them of what they will be seeing. They almost certainly will notice it, and so it's just being nice and giving them information they will have anyways.

We shouldn't ask them to do something for us as a favor. Maybe offer the luxury to them for silence, but even then Vox can spill it just as easily. If we ask them to keep quiet about it, they can even just say yes, resent us, keep their word, and have Vox tell. If they are on our side, they won't do it. If not they will. We can't tell them to be on our side, that's their decision.

I can't see any good coming from it.

It is part of our plan to strengthen RP, but without the surprise it will not be effective.

This is deviously good actually, but I don't think we should use it. It's a lie, as it will be effective (and maybe moreso) if ND/GoW know what's going on. It's using the lie in a way which could entice ND into attacking the buzzsaw if they get wind of it.

If a team comes to a conclusion that is going to hurt them on their own, we aren't liable. (ie. GoW investigates Pamplona, RP moves everything in, ND attacks based on what GoW sees for them, which is outdated) If we lie to get them to come to that conclusion, it's too manipulative for my tastes.

1. We don't like RP. We don't trust RP

"We are wary of RP still." RP is our ally now like it or not. We don't have to trust them, or like them, but we shouldn't flat out say we don't to anyone. Don't give Lego ammunition to turn RP against us eventually. Let them know we have our guard up, but not that we expect it to be necessary.

[notyoueither]

Say nothing! Certainly nothing like what is proposed.

They should get the public line. ND attacked, now we are at war. We will act like it. We are attempting to preserve RP (this in not public yet, only Lego know it). GoW has not attacked. Fine.

What we should do is follow up with them just the turn that Inchon is in RP hands (this one). All we are there to do is follow up by inquiring what Lego's feelings are re our aid to RP. We follow up soon after they have the save. We let them ask about Inchon if they even notice it. Then we tell them simply that it is a way of aiding RP. That is it. We might get them to agree to keep it under wraps, but the issue needs to be approached obliquely. Nothing too obvious, or demanding.