Great Embassy: discussion on first contact

[notyoueither]

I would like to take some time to think about this before I support yes or no.

[Dominae]

Edit: Doh! I forgot we were researching The Wheel first! In this case, why should we not accept the offer? Their techs are a lot more useful to us than ours to them...


Dominae

[notyoueither]

Something occurs to me...

Who would propose such a deal? To make the deal now, and keep it would mean that they have already made up their minds what to do when contact is made, no matter who they contact. Either live in peace, or rush.

What are the chances that GoW have decided to live in peace no matter who they contact and where they are? More likely, they have decided amongst themselves to live up to their propaganda by throwing the dice on the success of an early rush.

If I am correct, if they will attack no matter who they encounter and where the contacted civ is, then how should we treat this proposal?

[Dominae]

A thought just occurred to me. Perhaps we should extend this sort of deal to all the other civs. Thus, upon meeting our nearest neighbor, we could possibly get up to 2 techs for "free". Our 2 techs are non-militaristic, which means our neighbor cannot turn the trade against us. I think this would show that we're interested in diplomatic relations, as well as a relatively peaceful early-game. Also, it prevents having to haggle over specific techs, which gets us up the tree quite a bit faster.


Dominae

[Dominae]

Originally posted by notyoueither
To make the deal now, and keep it would mean that they have already made up their minds what to do when contact is made, no matter who they contact. Either live in peace, or rush.

I don't think the offer commits them to any diplomatic agenda. If they see that we are weak, they'll take the 2 techs and attack us soon after; if they perceive that we are strong, they'll take the 2 techs and wait. The only thing that I don't understand is that their 2 techs are the militaristic ones, meaning that they'll have a tougher time defeating anyone they make this deal with. Perhaps they don't really care and want to get up the tech tree ASAP. Or, maybe they're not interested in extortion and want to get all their techs "clean". In any case, our relations with them remain the same.


Dominae

[notyoueither]

A question for Meshelic.

Why do they propose a 2 for 2 swap? Do they know that we are not researching Bronze Working? Do they know that we are researching the Wheel?

[alva]

How I look at it, is by doing this, they could be hoping we (or any other team), would not research either of these two techs, thus leaving (y)ourselves very vulnerable.
They could build quite a nice army, knowing you don't have anything to counter with(even if they give the tech, it would still take awhile to pump out those units).
(If this is what they are doing, I'm pretty impressed.)

[Dominae]

Nice thinking alva! However, if this is their strategy, they're not considering that most teams will want Bronze Working ASAP, for defensive purposes, and therefore will probably be researching it from turn 1. This means that most teams will be refusing their offer (or making another one on better terms...).


Dominae

[zeit]

It seems GoW is making quite an effort in their early diplomacy- First Panzer32's proposal for minimap swaps then this.

Well, this makes perfect sense, an outgoing policy suits the mercenary aspect of the team, and isloationist policy deters potential customers.
I'd think that one of their goal here would be to make contacts- having potential customers, which i think will be their first military goal, before attacking somone for themselves.

Think about it: early wars are VERY dangerous, you can lose everything, and win alot. That is an unnecesary risk if the GoW plans on biting little chunks of their employer's lands, and get the spoils of war, besides the obvious pay.
Some of you are fixed on the "GoW will attack whatever it sees first" idea, but if you try to think like a mercenary, which is a businessman, after all, their foremost interest will be to advertise themselves as a group with a potential common interest for the other teams.
What better to do it than trade, and trade early techs? even if they trade military for non military, it still means they make good impression, trust, etc. and thus expand their client base. These are not less important than tech trees planning and the like, so please bear this as well.

As for the deal, i don't think we want to make any obligations like this- who knows what might happen? The most logical thing to do is to tell them we would positivly consider tech trade when we meet, but making premature obligations is unnecessary.

[Meshelic]

Originally posted by notyoueither
A question for Meshelic.

Why do they propose a 2 for 2 swap? Do they know that we are not researching Bronze Working? Do they know that we are researching the Wheel?

They simply wish to see the other teams, much like the Roleplayers (Togas's announcement). I did not tell them what we are researching, the only information shared was he told me what tech that the GoW STARTS with and exchanged which tech the GS starts with, ie common knowledge to anyone who owns a manual.

I told him simply I would present his request to the team here. We included the "if either team meets someone else first, no deal" part in as a way out, without dishonoring any agreement we might make.

Meshelic

[DeepO]

I still don't like that deal. I'm not sure the GoW thinks that other teams won't research BW (maybe only the legos won't, if they beeline for literature), but I think the hope to gain 2 techs for 1 here: everybody is going to research BW, while they are almost certainly researching ironworking first, the wheel next. Indeed, early wars are risky, but if your swordsmen face only a few spears, the risk is minimal. I don't think thay are going to outright destroy the first one they meet, but it is very likely they at least take 1 city fast... mercenaries are only useful when most of the teams have met, before that they also need to gain power. They will attack early on, if no-one hires them first.

DeepO

[Meshelic]

Taking into consideration some of the latest "news" from the Roleplayers (in Togas's latest commentary and request), as well as the GoW and Demogyptica, it appears that at least three or more of the teams have already swapped their own versions of the minimap, whether it's the minimap itself or the team icon placed on top of a black area.

I still feel that being isolationist for now is the better choice; I'm just announcing potential deals as they're advertised to me.

[DeepO]

I think minimap information could be traded away the moment we have WCs for exploring... and even then it is merely a sign of goodwill to other teams. With all the discussion in-team, I have turned my coat, and favor the isolationist approach to maps as well... as long as it doesn't mean we can't trade techs (which I still like, given the opportunity).

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Sorry about not checking in for a while, but one of my brother's computers had a hardware failure and the one I'm using now wasn't set up for Internet access until today.

As I recall, GoW is playing China, which is industrious and militaristic (contrary to what the manual says). They start with Masonry and Warrior Code. If they want Bronze Working, they have to research it (or get it from a hut) the same as anyone else, although they may very well have finished researching it by now if that was their first priority. In any case, an exchange of starting techs would be their Warrior Code for our Ceremonial Burial. (And no, Alphabet is not one of our initial techs; we have Ceremonial Burial and Masonry.)

Given a reasonable choice, I don't want to trade The Wheel until we can arrange at least two deals at once. If we trade it to our nearest neighbor, odds are that they'll clean up playing middleman and we'll get left out in the cold.

If GoW has any sense, they won't start an ultra-early war on their own unless a good opportunity arises. (1) Their mercenary approach would work better if they don't turn the entire world against them right off the bat (and self-proclaimed warmongers who attack early would definitely not win popularity contests). (2) Attacking a competent opponent over any significant distance gives the defenders a significant time advantage, since defenders (including counterattacking forces) don't have far to travel. (3) A civ that attacks early could be very vulnerable to being double-teamed. (4) The imparative to keep some significant forces at home instead of throwing everything you have into an attack is a lot stronger in multiplayer. You can't strip your home bare and throw everything you have at the enemy the way I tend to in SP (at least not without huge risks). If GoW starts practically on top of someone, or if they catch a neighbor neglecting their defenses, they might do well attacking early. But otherwise, the most likely result would be that both civs would be weakened and the real winners would be the other civs that stay out of the fighting.

Nathan

[Theseus]

Happy Holidays to all!!

(in other words, I'm back!)

I'll chime in on one of Nathan's points... as we are VERY likely to be the sole civ with The Wheel, I'd suggest that we are best of waiting on tech / map trading until we know at least several civs.

Given the relative isolation of our start, and our *earliest* access to strong fastmovers, I'm very comfortable biding our time.