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Yeah he who dares wins, but if you're taking a chance for the rolling attack you gotta have a good back up plan for landing all the rest of the troops somewhere if the amphib fails. It'd be better to hold off on the last chain from the homeland untill the last minute so you can bring MI rather than marines if it looks bad for the marines.
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Let's wait for any kind of sim before deciding, though. I agree the gains could be very high, but the risk is also something...
DeepOComment
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The clouds are all gone now, so I'm headed to the beach for a few hours.
We're in 4th place. We'll need something to break our way to win this. At this point I think we have two options for that to happen. Win big on Lego, rather quickly, getting to 3rd place, and hope GoW and ND fight it out enough we can sneak in with a Spaceship. Or leave Lego to compete with ND/GoW, and hope they hurt each other enough we can sneak in with a Spaceship.
The only way we win big is if both we and GoW take a city with Marines. We can still beat Lego if one or the other of us takes a city (and rolls with it), but it will be a long fight and ND wins in the meantime. If neither of us can take a city with our Marines, I think Lego will eventually win the war, and ND wins in the meantime.
So if we take Quanto with our Marines we allow for option 1. If we can't take Quanto, we're forced to option 2. If we don't attack Quanto, we can't get option 1 anyways, and will be forced to option 2.
I'm not sure we really risk much by attacking Quanto in that light. The units are obviously risked, but they won't help us win the game otherwise.Comment
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I ran with no terrain bonus, metro, HE, forted and 30 marines will kill 10 Inf 70% in 100 trails. I did not factor in the arty.
Then I ran with 20 inf and 45 marines and it was 0% for us. I used 20 inf to simulate the tanks and arties.Comment
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45 M for 20 I... that's nearly what we've got now without backup (47 to be precise). At 0%, I guess the choice is obvious.
vmxa, would it be possible to have 55 M for 20 I as well, please? That's about the best we can do in Quanto.
Abilene would be more in the order of 55 M for 18 I.
Does this simulation take into account promotions?
DeepOComment
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And Aeson, I agree with you. We have to risk something if we want to win. We set out on that premise, and have played like that so far... however this was not expected. I don't want to be overly cautious, but if we don't get 50% chance of breaking through the Lego defenses, we shouldn't do it.
We could take this in stages, though, to minimize the risk. It's going to be a lot of work, but that's less important right now. If we see a 50% of succeeding, we could fight the first 8 battles, and do the calculation again for the remainder. If chances increase, continue, if chances decrease we stop, and rescue what we can. We could move the M transport per transport...
But one point: let's take it slow here, and have precise information before continueing. There is no rush, if we need 3 days than so be it. We've got the troop strengths, I don't think any more scouting is going to influence our decision, so let's wait for the numbers, and decide on that. The 45 M for 20 I at least didn't sound right to me.
DeepOComment
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Oh, if you've got a calculator somewhere for stack results, I would certainly be interested to try it out.
DeepOComment
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there's this one, but it doesn't do stack results
Are we having fun yet?Comment
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Hmmm... but stack results are hard to extrapolate... maybe vmxa was using something else?
DeepOComment
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Here is what it looks like:Attached FilesComment
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Ok, 34 wins 17 survivors at 2.54 HP. Defenders 66 wins, 3.45 survivors at 1.07 hp.
This was done with 55 marines at 10 att vs 20 inf with 10 def. HE flag, metro and forted. All as 4hp vets.Comment
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Now if I run just one trial we win, so I take that as we have a shot.
Me I am inclined to take the shot. If we don't do a landing or a capture, it will just get worse, unless GoW goes in and makes it easier for us.Comment
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Funny I ran 6 trials and it came out 50/50.Comment
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They have 10 Inf and an artillary to defend each one. So for the first 10 attacks (art assisted) it would be.
Marine vs Inf in Metro, Grassland, Fortified protected by bombard of 12, vet vs vet.
Defender wins
95.336% of the time
Given that the defender wins the average remaining HP would be
2.93627
(Not taking into account promotions)
Then you'd have to fight the promoted and untouched Inf again, before the tanks.
Marine vs Tank in Metro, GL, fortified, vet vs vet.
Defender wins
87.589% of the time
Given a defensive victory, ave remaining HP would be
2.38788
(Not taking into account promotions)
Marine vs 3 HP Inf in same situation (w/o art)
Defender wins
82.424% of the time
Given def victory ave HP remaining would be
1.75844
Before promotions, although all would be promoted if they hadn't already been
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