Turn 240: 1250 AD

[DeepO]

Something to put on the list for next turn: change Blizzard to DD during build phase, after shortrushing it to knight. It will cost something like 100 gold, but we can use the extra DD next turn. And we should have enough cash to do most necessary upgrades.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Something else to consider: In case we don't attack the BB stack next turn, they will most likely be ideally placed to destroy our lonely empty TR we will leave behind in 242. Which makes the chaining on D-day (243) quite unlikely....

Next turn, it's obvious what we take:
241: 8 M (guaranteed)
242: 4 MI + 4 M? 8 MI? (almost certain)
243: 8 MI? 4 M + 4 MI? (if we get lucky)

I think we should choose to go for 8 MI in 242. We will have 48 marines in transport at that moment, and we should be able to assume that should be enough to breach through. Those 4 MI can make a large difference.

I would keep the marines, and try to send them in 242. You never know what will happen, a fleet with left over marines still poses a considerable threat up North as well.

DeepO

[DeepO]

OTOH... we could also decide to take 48 M, and nothing more. Some of those M builds next turn could be changed to MI, without loss (Bolderberg should end at 120 shields, for instance, enough for a 110 shield MI).

Come to think of this... I should change 4 builds if possible. Those MI can do their job immediately. They could even board on chainer 1, in turn 241. And we have a couple of cities that can 'only' do 100 spt builds, not ideal for MI... let them build more M next turn.

I'm having too much time to spend on this war

DeepO

[DeepO]

Something else on the wishlist: I would welcome a couple of subs, to keep track of Vox. I wouldn't want to be surprised by an attack by them. Maybe worth it to put WoC, once it builds its last M, on subs for 2 or 3 turns.

DeepO

[Aeson]

The diversion of BBs towards stand alone DDs isn't going to work, I fear. I'm pretty sure that Lego is already onto our N fleet (they passed a sub in that direction 3 turns ago, which would be ideal to be off the coast of Hurricane right now), and otherwise will be very soon. They will not go for a lone DD, when they have a stack of TR closeby.

They might not know where our fleet has gone though.

They have a Sub to spot us with. We don't know where the Sub is, but perhaps it was to be part of the pickets to the N. They didn't have anything N of the Ir at 2 that we could see. Even if their Sub was at Hurricane, they might not know if we went N, S, or E.

If they guess S, they won't see us with the BB's either. If they head S and then next turn all they see are two DD's N of their BB's, they might think we've headed N with the main fleet, and those are just damaged sentry killers headed to join up. They could turn all the way around.

If they guess E, they will spot us with the Sub if it's near Hurricane, and won't otherwise. In this case it's all up to where the Sub is. If it was too far S or N of Hurricane (it wasn't due east of Hurricane or we would of hit it), they might not spot our fleet at all. Again, they would only see 2 DD's, both N of the BB stack.

If they guess N, they will know we didn't go N unless their Sub was S of Hurricane. Again it's up to the position of the Sub. If it was S of Hurricane they wouldn't be able to catch up to our fleet anywhere. All they'll know is we didn't go S. If they spot ships N of their BB's, they might be lead that way.

If their Sub was offshore to the E a few tiles (too bad we didn't run into it with one of our DD's) and sees our fleet, they won't have to guess, and we can be sure the BB's will hit our stack.

Oh, one comment to your misdirection forces: I only half agree that it doesn't cost us anything. It won't damage the main fleet, and that 1/4 DD is only good for bombardment, but the 4/4 DD was scheduled as a picket for our chain (1/4 as well, once it healed in Hurricane, but that's only for turn 244). Everything we've got is going to the N fleet, those chain protectors are scarce.

Yes. I noted the same drawbacks. (I never said it wouldn't cost us anything, just that it wouldn't cost us much).

I think it's worth the shot. It's a gamble of getting by the BB's without a fight, and giving perhaps another turn of using the chain. It costs us 3 DD HP's from the fleet. Even at low odds of working out, it's a worthwhile risk IMO.

We don't have to use the 4/4 if we don't want to either. Use it to protect the chain, and only use the 2 damaged DD for misdirection.

[Aeson]

I'm still worried about the number of Marines. 48 is a bit low. 40 (which could happen if 242 isn't chainable) and we run a pretty decent risk of failing completely. Even if we get through the Infantry, we might not have enough extra Marines to kill off the Cavalry and Tanks that may also be defending.

I think we have to get the 8 surefire Marines. Then at least 4 more as planned. Even just our Tanks are going to eat up an awful lot of Cavalry. Tanks will hurt, but we can counterattack them at least, with blitz on our side.

We can deal with not having any "defenders" at landing. All we need to do is hold out 1 turn in the face of Cavalry and a few Tanks. We can't deal with not breaking through with our Marines.

If we want to make sure we have at least a "top" MI for defense, we could take 6 surefire Marines and with 2 MI. Then 6 probable Marines with 2 probable MI. Then if we've gotten rid of Legos spy they may choose to concentrate on GoW instead of us.

On D-day I think we need to make sure we have 8 more Marines waiting if the chain has survived. (We can't know if it's survived before the build-queue on 243, so if it's survived, and isn't definitely threatened on 242 go with Marines). The MI to send will be upgraded on 242 anyways right?

[Aeson]

Originally posted by DeepO
Something to put on the list for next turn: change Blizzard to DD during build phase, after shortrushing it to knight. It will cost something like 100 gold, but we can use the extra DD next turn. And we should have enough cash to do most necessary upgrades.

Sounds good. We'll have 3 4/4 DD's that can cover the chain (as the Transports leave) then right?

Something else on the wishlist: I would welcome a couple of subs, to keep track of Vox. I wouldn't want to be surprised by an attack by them. Maybe worth it to put WoC, once it builds its last M, on subs for 2 or 3 turns.

A couple Subs would be good. How many shields does WoC put out?

[DeepO]

Sorry, no time to respond... I'm just here to post the battle report. Will get to this tonight.

WoC is at little over 100 spt while not in WLTKD. Not sure how much exactly, but I don't think it can reach 110 spt.

and yes, there should be 3 4/4 DDs, but not all of them present in Hurricane next turn, they come from all over.

I'll look into your diversion with more attention later on

DeepO

[Theseus]

I would tend towards more Marines as well... don't forget, after the first city captures presumably the neighboring coastal cities will not have the feared back-up defenders represented by their Cavalry and Tanks.

[DeepO]

economically, I think I can go for 24 M over the next 3 turns, leading our total to a maximum of 64 (of which I think 8 will not arrive Legoland). That's the absolute maximum, not only for our producing cities, but also for our transport capacities before invasion.

However, it means no MI at all, and this I don't like. Even a few MI will work wonders, they are double as strong as I for defending against cav and tanks (not so against arts).
So, could we e.g. take 4 certain MI in turn 242, and fill the rest with all M? This means a maximum of 60 M (8 of which if we get lucky), and 4 MI.

I have to tell you, for completeness, that there is a way to ahve nearly all our chainers to succeed. We currently have 2 empties. We can fill these next turn, and ship them over to the first spot. Next turn, one of those is the regular chainer, and the other returns to Hurricane. In turn 243, the chain is in proper order, however there will eb no empties left: as we fill 2 TR in 241, and 1 TR in 242, all is full.

The advantage is that we can be certain all our chains will succeed. The disadvantage that it only works next turn, at which we will have 12 M, or 8 M and 4 MI, but must fill the rest of the 16 spots with I (or a settler and workers).

So we can still have a choice... in case we would go for a total of 20 extra M, and 4 I, we can be nearly certain they arrive. If we go for MI, we have to wait, and can't be certain of the last TR.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Aeson
I'm still worried about the number of Marines. 48 is a bit low. 40 (which could happen if 242 isn't chainable)

Wow... correction. We currently have 40 M on the seas. We will get another 8 next turn (241). That's 48 certain M... we're talking about the next 16, so to a possible 64 M.

I don't think we're paranoid for bringing many M, maybe much too many. There are 2 possible disasters for this invasion of ours. First of all our N fleet sunk before it can unload.... and secondly us not being able to break through the defenses. All the rest is not important if we succeed or not, as it won't be so critical... but it would be a shame to base our analysis on wrong numbers

If we want to make sure we have at least a "top" MI for defense, we could take 6 surefire Marines and with 2 MI. Then 6 probable Marines with 2 probable MI. Then if we've gotten rid of Legos spy they may choose to concentrate on GoW instead of us.

So in total this would bring a max of 60 M, 4 MI in our force (and 34 tanks). 6 M + 2 MI are in my mind never going to arrive, the others we can more or less be certain of. So 54 M, 2 MI, 34 T... a decent invasion force!

On D-day I think we need to make sure we have 8 more Marines waiting if the chain has survived. (We can't know if it's survived before the build-queue on 243, so if it's survived, and isn't definitely threatened on 242 go with Marines). The MI to send will be upgraded on 242 anyways right?

Aeson, we're talking about different things, it's obvious. But I agree with you

The MI will be upgraded in turn 241, next turn. But they can only move in 242, yes. We can build 4 (I think) MI next turn, which can move if we want to.

DeepO

[Aeson]

Interesting choices. Up 8 M from what I was thinking is already a great improvement! Do it again!

I think if we go with a sure 52 M and 4 MI it works out best.

[Theseus]

Now that is the kind of mistake we can live with!!

Does that also mean that we might have more capacity for either additional DDs to cover the chain, or earlier Bombers?

[DeepO]

I wish I could

With chaining 2 TR next turn, we can go for a sure 60 M, and 4 I. Or e.g. 54 M, 6 MI, and 4 I. No instant correcting on D-day, though, as we will trade the certainty for a broken chain (no empty available). In case we get lucky in the 1-1-1 scenario, we can see if we break through and chain another 8 M... or 8 MI (or T even).

Actually, that's not entirely correct either. Okay, a recap, as otherwise we're going to loose count
- Scenario 1-1-1 is simply one TR every turn. As the first 2 turns succeed (turn 241 for sure, turn 242 most likely), this will bring 16 sure spots, and 8 maybe spots.

- Scenario 2-1-0 chains 2 TR in 241, 1 in 242. Problem is we don't have all the forces available we would want in 241.

- Scenario 2-1-(1) is a variation to the last one. We take the certain solution to get at most 60 M to Legoland. Further, we keep the option of correcting us in case we get lucky with Lego (and they keep our chain intact), but it's costly... we need to empty a boat, to make room. In the event of a disaster, and those 60 M aren't going to work, we send over 8 more M (if we can, of course), disband 4 I + 4 T, and replace them with our fresh M.

Mind you... I think that 3rd turn is not going to happy. In which case we would actually be better off with the 2-1-0 scenario anyway.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Theseus
Does that also mean that we might have more capacity for either additional DDs to cover the chain, or earlier Bombers?

Sigh... give them a hand, and they grab for your arm! Sorry that I have to disappoint you, but our production capacity remains limited to some 900 shields (1000 with ample rushing). That's 9 M, T or B each turn. MI are 'for free' as we can upgrade I or rifle.

But I want to warn again that our defense currently is laughable. We've got 2 I in each city, and some 20 rifles spread around. Of that heap, we're going to take additional defenders away for upgrades. Please let us consider this, even if it means that we can't send a continous stream of reinforcements to the front.

I would even consider drafting in cities which are of no use anyway (e.g. Sufa, which produces just a few bpt, nothing more), just to get our defender count up. If GoW would attack, we would be in very serious trouble right now.

DeepO