Turn 240: 1250 AD

[asleepathewheel]

I propose that we name something after Velociryx, perhaps our insertion city.

Have others been pm'd? this is a glorious day!

Lead us to the promised land, DeepO

(now if only GoW doesn't backstab us)

[asleepathewheel]

Can you imagine opening up the save as lego, and finding your entire picketline gone? Naked to the world.

We should delay our release of info until RP has nearly sent the turn, don't want to give lego a few extra days notice, we aren't going to get it.

[Aeson]

Do we know yet if GoW is declaring war this turn or not?

[Jon Shafer]

This should be interesting.

Good luck.

[Aeson]

If they move the BB's towards our stack:

6 bombard, 6 attack option is decent. Use the Fighter(s?) to bombard too. I'd say bombard until we get 3 hits in or we've used 6 (Fighter, then 2/4 DDs, then 4/4 DDs). If we get lucky and hit 3 times before we've taken 6 shots, we've gotten our "bombard quota" and then attack with healthy DD's. Goal is to severely injure the BB stack and hope the survivors turn back to heal (they can outrun us). The drawback to this is all our attackers face a bombard shot (8) from the BB stack, then probably 45% odds.

Another option would be to bombard with the Fighter, and then attack with the DDs. 4/4's first, 2/4's if we open up any 2/4 or 1/4 BB's. Goal is to sink all the BB's or as close to it as we can. First 7 get hit with bombard shots, and then the other's don't have to take bombard.

If we can kill their 7 BB's, we stand a chance of making it to T-3 without our north fleet status being known. They have a spy, so they'll know our ship numbers of course, and battle reports will give them a basic idea of how many HP's our ships have, but they might not be able to see where they all are. Our S and deep S stacks might be in the main fleet for all they know, and so that fleet may look too intimidating to try to take at sea (especially if we've sunk their 7 BB's!). If their BB's are exchanging bombardment with our fleet, they will realize the damage they can do to us by rushing more ships along the coast.

One Sub would ruin the whole thing of course, it might be worth the risk to try and keep them in the dark about exactly where our ships are.

(anyone who can run the simulation? What are our exact numbers? 1 1/4 DD, 1 2/4 DD, 10 4/4 DD, with 1 2/4 DD able to join up but not able to bombard the first turn, and 1 1/4 Sub and 1 4/4 Sub able to join up by T-3?)

If we attack with all our DDs we can expect 3-4 of them get hit by defensive bombardment (8 vs 8 over 7 battles). That gives us 6 4/4 DD, 4 3/4 DD, 1 2/4 DD, 1 1/4 DD. The 1/4 DD would bombard. The Fighter would bombard. The 4 3/4 DDs would attack (they become 3/4 when attacking) with 30% odds.

Here's what would be the most expected (or close to it) result. Results could vary a lot though!

3/4 DD kills BB, 1/4 DD
3/4 DD sinks to BB, 1/4 BB
3/4 DD sunk by BB, 2/4 BB
3/4 DD sunk by BB, 3/4 BB

Then 6 4/4 DD attack with 45% odds: (3 4/4 BB, 3/4 BB, 2/4 BB, 3/4 BB)

4/4 DD sinks BB, 1/4 DD
4/4 DD sunk by BB, 1/4 BB
4/4 DD sunk by BB, 2/4 BB
4/4 DD sinks 3/4 BB, 2/4 DD
4/4 DD sinks 2/4 BB, 2/4 DD
4/4 DD sinks 2/4 BB, 1/4 DD
2/4 DD sinks 1/4 BB, 1/4 DD

That would leave our fleet with 2 2/4 DD and 3 1/4 DD. All 7 BB would be sunk.

I've assumed that all 7 BB would get their defensive bombard shots. More likely that we'd sink 1-2 before it got the chance. That would be another HP to us. I gave Lego 2/3 of the 45% battles, which could swing our way as well. To offset this, I gave us both the "good odds" battles (66% and 75%) as victories, which we of course could lose.

Compare this to the expected bombard exchange:

11 DD bombard 7 4/4 BB at 31% odds to hit (6 vs 12). Result would be 4 4/4 BB, 3 3/4 BB.

Now they can attack or bombard. 7 BB bombard our fleet at 47.6% odds (8 vs 8) and 2 fp. Result would be 6 4/4, 3/4, 4 2/4, 1/4 DD.

We can now bombard. This time we'd hit 4 times, so they'd have 7 3/4 BB.

They can attack or bombard. 7 BB bombard our fleet at 47.6% odds (8 vs 8) and 2 fp. Result would be 2 4/4, 2 3/4, 6 2/4, 1/4 DD.

We can now make the landing. Gives us pretty good leeway to account for other Lego attacks. We have 10 DD that need to be taken out of the picture before our Transports start getting hit... if on the other hand Lego attacks with the BB...

11 DD bombard 7 4/4 BB at 31% odds to hit (6 vs 12). Result would be 4 4/4 BB, 3 3/4 BB.

Now they can attack or bombard. 3 4/4 BB attack our fleet (10 4/4 DD, 2 2/4 DD, 1/4 DD) at 83.3% odds.

4/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 3/4 BB
4/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 2/4 BB
4/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 1/4 BB

Leaving us 7 4/4 DD, 2 2/4 DD, 1/4 DD. 3 3/4 BB attack our fleet at 68.9% odds. (1 3/4 is due to defensive bombardment and starts out 4/4)

3/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD 2/4 BB
3/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD 1/4 BB
3/4 BB sunk by 4/4 DD 1/4 DD

Leaving us 4 4/4 DD, 2 2/4 DD, 2 1/4 DD. A 2/4 BB attacks our fleet (starts out 3/4 but defensive bombardment hits one of the 3 "base" 3/4) at 47% odds.

2/4 BB sunk by 4/4 DD, 1/4 DD.

That leaves them with 3/4 BB, 2 2/4 BB, 2 1/4 BB. We have 3 4/4 DD 2 2/4 DD, 3 1/4 DD.

We can bombard 8 times, hitting 2 times. Leaving them with 2 2/4 BB, 3 1/4 BB.

They then attack. (Probably wouldn't unless other ships/bombers were able to expose transports, which isn't that likely as we need to have our DD's hit for 11 more HPs.) 2 2/4 BB attack at 47% odds.

2/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 1/4 BB
2/4 BB sunk by 4/4 DD, 1/4 DD

1/4 BB bombards 4/4 DD, 3/4 DD
1/4 BB sunk by 3/4 DD, 1/4 DD
1/4 BB sunk by 3/4 DD, 2/4 DD

So we make it to land with 3/4 DD, 3 2/4 DD, 5 1/4 DD in that case.

[notyoueither]

A question: would anybody be interested in storing this information in some kind of intelligence thread of sorts? Just to have all the numbers on their forces, over all the turns. It would provide a nice source of information, but I don't feel like doing it (sorry).

By your command.

[Aeson]

A quick look:

Outright DD attack on T-2.
GS: 2 2/4 DD and 3 1/4 DD
Lego: Battleships sunk

Bombard exchange T-2 and Lego T-1:
GS: 2 4/4 DD, 2 3/4 DD, 6 2/4 DD, 1/4 DD
Lego: 7 3/4 BB

Bombard from GS, outright attack by Lego:
GS: 3/4 DD, 3 2/4 DD, 5 1/4 DD
Lego: 2 1/4 BB

So it looks like we want bombardment exchange, or having Lego attack us. We have enough cover to make it to the landing without Transports taking hits as long as Lego doesn't build a ton more DD and/or Bombers to hit us with the next couple of turns.

Most likely thing that will happen is bombardment exchange on T-2, Lego positions so we can't bombard and get to our T-3 zone, so we can't hit back. Then T-1 Lego hits us with 4 4/4 BB, 3 3/4 BB and whatever else they can muster in the way of produced DD and Bombers. Still don't think they'll get to hits on Transports.

[notyoueither]

Nice numbers, Aeson.

Am I right that the numbers favour us bombarding and defending until they rush, but intel favours us sinking their fleet?

[Aeson]

Intel is a sticky subject. Depends on how they react. I'd expect seeing 7 BB's sunk without seeing our fleet would phase them, and they'd prepare land-based solutions.

It would leave us very weak cover for our DD stack even if it succeeds (and because of how slimly it succeeds, we often won't), and they have a spy, and they have the battle reports. If they spot our S or deep S fleets (or obviously our N fleet) they can pretty much pinpoint how much we have in our N fleet. They would see that produced DD's could do quite a bit of damage to us. We'd only have 2 DD (2/4) cover for our Transports.

If we had another 5-6 DDs in the N fleet I think it would be worth it to sink the BBs. As is, I think we have to bombard and run.

[Aeson]

Another thing we can try is misdirection with our DD's. Would Lego pass up going out of the way to sink a 1/4 or 2/4 DD that is parked next to them?

If they end up moving 6 tiles S, we can put DD's on their NW, W, SW, and N and hope they chase them. They would be DD's that either couldn't make it to our fleet, or ones which we won't get much use out of anyways. Probably our best bet now that I think of it. Our N fleet would move 66666 and just be out of range of sight from the BB's. DD 6669 of Blizzard would move 66666 and end up 8887 of BB's out of sight. 1/4 DD 9 of fleet would move 66, bombard BB's and move 88 staying in sight. 2/4 DD 666 of fleet would move 8, bombard BB's, and then move 87 to stack with the 1/4 DD. If they go for our weak DD stack, they go out of their way with at least 2 BB, and then would sight our 4/4 DD up further north too. 2/4 DD 666333 of fleet would move 88877 to end up 9 of BB stack. Wouldn't be able to bombard, but might draw another BB a little out of the way.

If we only have to deal with 4-5 BBs I think we become much more safe. If they don't go for it, we don't actually lose much, and our ships could just start bombarding some of Lego's tiles to make them pay for ignoring our ships. We're only going to hit the BB's 7 times (and if Lego is smart they can cut that to 3) with our bombardment at best anyways, which won't really affect things at all. We would be down 2 DDs that could defend before Transports in the fleet though, and not be set up very well to defend the chain.

[notyoueither]

Well, we have some time to consider, but that sounds like a plan.

[DeepO]

Nice analysis, Aeson.

The diversion of BBs towards stand alone DDs isn't going to work, I fear. I'm pretty sure that Lego is already onto our N fleet (they passed a sub in that direction 3 turns ago, which would be ideal to be off the coast of Hurricane right now), and otherwise will be very soon. They will not go for a lone DD, when they have a stack of TR closeby.

That also answers, in my eyes, the question about whether it would pay to outright attack them. It would be nice to destroy the stack, as it can do more damage later on too, but not if that risks our invasion. We have to assume they know exactly how many ships are in the N fleet. We have to assume that, with only a shard of intelligence, they are currently rushing DDs and Subs in their Western coastal cities. So, over the next 2 turns, we are going to face another 3-4 ships (DDs let's say).

In that situation, there is no option to risk losing all our defenders. So bombard what we can, if they somehow split their stack (I don't see them doing it, but you never know. They don't know our goal on their coast, so could decide to cover both North and South with 2 stacks) we attack in full force. I only hope they won't stay out of range for bombardment, attacking in 2 turns undamaged. At that time, we are at risk. But as said... they don't know where we are going, even with their increased speed it makes it difficult to predict where they need to end their turn to be safe from our bombardment.

Oh, one comment to your misdirection forces: I only half agree that it doesn't cost us anything. It won't damage the main fleet, and that 1/4 DD is only good for bombardment, but the 4/4 DD was scheduled as a picket for our chain (1/4 as well, once it healed in Hurricane, but that's only for turn 244). Everything we've got is going to the N fleet, those chain protectors are scarce.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Can you imagine opening up the save as lego, and finding your entire picketline gone? Naked to the world.

It will be a bit of a shock, I think. But they should have realised that this was going to happen: all of their pickets were in range (just like all of ours were in range of their ships). It will be demoralizing, though

We should delay our release of info until RP has nearly sent the turn, don't want to give lego a few extra days notice, we aren't going to get it.

I don't know, sleepy. This is also a bit the wrong thread to discuss it, but it's my feeling that if we give the information faster than strictly necessary, we can hope this game goes at considerable pace. If they can prepare a little, Lego might be able to stick to the 24h limit. Once the war has started, we can't, realistically. It takes more than a day to assess the situation, and act on that.

For that reason only, I would be willing to give it to them faster... we take the time we need as well, but doing so will hold up the whole group. They get more time, which is 'free'. I certainly agree that giving them a week, while only taking a day or so ourselves isn't favourable ata ll, so in case it comes to that, we can delay. But right now? I would give it to them asap.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Come to think about it: Sleepy, you might be right. There is one serious downside on those battle reports that I haven't heard being mentioned. By giving out the information on which forces were distroyed, Lego can hack into its build queue, and (short) rush and / or change where needed. They don't need to play with the forces they've got, which, e.g. for possible extra DD rushes, could be a serious threat to us.

However, there are 2 counter arguments. What they do, we can do as well... we just wait for the battlereports before opening the save, analyse, and decide what to rush. And secondly: We did the same in the Voxian war, by moving the first 'build completed' screen out of the way, and seeing the battle before deciding what to rush or change.

It remains a serious drawback, but I don't think it will change the game for us if we give them the reports early on.

Oh, and Aeson: No, we don't know if GoW declares war or not on this turn. I didn't get a response to my last message. We didn't get a response to our computer question either... and they haven't yet discovered radio.

DeepO

[Harovan]

Good show!