What to post publicly about the war

[DeepO]

Krill gave this one a couple of turns ago:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=97042

Basically, without exposure or a failed attempt, you get 50% success. If you fail or get exposed, you are flagged and can't try again. That chance deminishes by 30% each turn you wait (so in total, 15% chance the first turn after exposure, something like 25% second, 33% the third, etc.). Each time you fail, you get flagged again, and have to start over.

DeepO

[vmxa1]

Sounds about right, that is where I got the 5 turns from. Ok off to squeeze in some LoD. Trying to get one more character through hell mode.

[DeepO]

5 turns has nothing to do with it, vmxa. it never ends...

these are the numbers
turn 0: exposure
turn 1: (1-.7)*.5 = .15 chance of planting a spy
turn 2: (1-.49)*.5 = .25
turn 3: (1-.34)*.5 = .33
turn 4: (1-.24)*.5 = .38
turn 5: (1-.17)*.5 = .41

turn 10: (1-.03)*.5 = .485

So even after 10 turns, you still have a 1.5% smaller chance of succeeding in planting a spy.

We were extremely lucky with that 2nd spy in Lego. And we might have to wait a bit before planting another one in GoW has a good chance of success.

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

I didn't know that!...

[DeepO]

I'm supposed to be sleeping now, but just a quick response to sleepy

I thought we had a 30% chance to plant the second spy in Lego... after wards it was only 15%. Okay, we didn't succeed with GoW, but still, that was some amazing luck we had there. first spy in Lego succeeds (50%), afterwards the seoncd too (15%)... nice!

I didn't realize just how good the RNGgods were to us until I checked it this turn for GoW. (after our naval massacre, I didn't complain, though)

DeepO

[DeepO]

Come to think of this, I'd like us to try to plant a spy again in GoW in 3 or 4 turns, certainly if it doesn't give any messages in-game if we fail.

And we might want to try with Vox immediately, as with ND too.

DeepO

[DeepO]

To get this thread a bit more on topic (we're drifting), Lego doesn't post for a whole day, and all of a sudden 2 posts in half an hour, both not from Zargon? They are most definately also coordinating public appearances.

DeepO

[DeepO]

(BTW, I think I might have saved MZ's butt... he didn't exactly saw it like I let the rest believe. I don't know if Lego buys it or not, but at least it's an attempt to get the mood friendlier)

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

That was good DeeoO, Friendly OT chat is good for now. People can post safely on that. Hopefully the Vox players will say something. Note also MZ's comment on the subject.

[vmxa1]

The best way is for is to just not post in the public thread right now. I am not sure why MZ feels he needs to post there, rather than finish the turn anyway.

Anything is possible amunition for Lego players, so why even get involved?

[DeepO]

You might be right, vmxa. Although the last few posts were either damage control, or had nothing to do with the war, it is probably best to just shut up.

I know one thing: we are not going to post any screenshots soon. Even if these are the dryest information possible, they will spark too much controversy

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Personally I'm disappointed that the last story of MZ's was pulled. That 'radio broadcast' was well written and Zargon did not have the right to demand it be censored.

A sad day for a 'Democracy' game. A good day for 'compassionate jackbootism'.

[DeepO]

CH, I know how you feel. But if I was MZ, I would have waited a couple of days, e.g. until the GoW turn was played.

DeepO

[vmxa1]

CH being right is not allows a good reason to act. Some times relinqishing your right is just the easiest way to act.

If I was Lego, I would not be bothered by anything said so far, but I am not and I will err on the side of caution.

I am at the point where I just do not need the grief. Correcting peoples points can be very taxing (especially if they are correct).

[Aeson]

I don't think there's anything that can be said right now that will go over well.