Turn 209: 940 AD

[DeepO]

BB is size 17 right now. Our biggest city.

sleepy: interesting idea, but indeed, there is the defense bonus for metros that's not so nice. And, hospitals make excellent placeholders for units, once they got attacked, they're likely to switch all their builds to defenders.

rubber: don't know exactly. once we get in mob, we can just as easily build infs then rifles. OTOH, the only reason to go in mob is to have the power to build infs (before marines and tanks, of course). asking ND sounds a good idea, if GoW agrees.

DeepO

[vulture]

I suspect sleepy is suggesting it for three turns before we go because Lego won't have time to build any hospitals in coastal cities (usually lower production) in the time available, but will have sunk enough shields into them that switching to infantry once they see the attack coming will only net them one infantry, when they could have got two in the same time.

Doing some simulations of marines vs cities and metros to see what the difference is...

[vulture]

Dealing with marines attacking infantry fortified in cities or metros on plains. As you might imagine, in cases where one side has a massive advantage, hospitals make little difference to the odds of a city falling (although it does altyer the number of defenders and attackers killed - but that's of little consequence if the only aim is to take the town with marines, regardless of the cost). In cases where the combat is reasonably balanced (chance of victory between 10 and 90%), hospitals count roughly as an extra 1/4 extrainfantry defender for every defender beyond 2, as long as the sides are reasonably balanced.

So for cities with less than 8 defenders, a hospital counts as roughly 1 infantry. If a hospital is completed and the city grows, we effectively face one more infantry. If it isn't, the build is switched to an infantry, and we face one more infantry. The result is the same either way.

If they have 8 or more infantry in the city, we're buggered anyway. We need 26 or more marines to have even a 50% chance of taking a city, and 50% isn't good enough when the game for us hinges on the success of the attack.

If our main coastal target is a city that isn't close to size 12 yet anyway, then sanitation makes very little difference to the success of our landing.

If we can get a good price for sanitation, I think there is a fair chance it will slightly reduce Lego's defence ability IF they build hospitals in place of units. The down side is if the attack stalls and we have to face a metro with a significant number of defenders, in which case we've shot ourselves in the foot.

[DeepO]

vulture, care to see how many infs they can have in a non-metro city to have a 90% chance of taking it with 32 marines? How much marines do we need to beat down 10 infs with 90% chance of success?

Metro shouldn't be that much of a problem in our first attack: the destroyers we need for protection should be able to get the pop down to 12 or lower.

DeepO

[vulture]

All units veteran, no civs militaristic, effective infantry defense is 18.5 (+50% city defense, +25% fortified, +10% terrain, no amphib bonus - is the city bonus correct, since I can't check it at the moment, due to lack of computer at home).

32 marines can take out 8 infantry with 89% chance, ignoring offensive and defensive bombardment (97% against 7 infantry)

40 marines have a 91% chance of taking out 10 infantry (88% for 39 marines).

[vulture]

...and that should be 'How many marines...', not 'How much marines...' - naught DeepO.

I'd never bother correcting such a trivial point of grammar normally, but this is now my 1,000th post

[vulture]

I discovered a minor bug in the stacked combat calculator - units could get promoted beyond elite*, getting unknown boosts to hp. This has the effect of increasing the defenders odds by a few percent if promotion to elite is likely.

Corrected values:

32 marines now take out 8 infantry with 90% chance (98% against 7 infantry).

40 marines have a 92% chance vs 10 infantry (89% for 39 marines).

[DeepO]

Thanks vulture!

Oh, and as to grammar: you all know I'm sloppy in this, I just type what I think, and most of the times incorrectly too. I did use "how many infs", so it would be silly to use "how much marines"

40 marines... that's quite a bunch... I think we should take that number into account, though. We need 90% chance of success, and if Lego spots where we can land, we can expect 10 infs. Luckily we've got RP to investigate cities for us

PS: Congrats on your 1000 post! I recently posted my 5000 post... over 4300 where in this forum. Not bad either

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by vulture
I suspect sleepy is suggesting it for three turns before we go because Lego won't have time to build any hospitals in coastal cities (usually lower production) in the time available, but will have sunk enough shields into them that switching to infantry once they see the attack coming will only net them one infantry, when they could have got two in the same time.

Doing some simulations of marines vs cities and metros to see what the difference is...

yup, that is what I was trying to say plus they will lose at least a couple hundred gold, which would also be put towards upgrading/rushing units.

[DeepO]

The whole thing is of course that it is very likely that by that time (we're talking of somewhere between 25 and 30 turns from now), they are very likely to have researched it themselves. Which would still be the ideal situation, as then they wouldn't have researched something getting them closer to tanks

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

DeepO:

If you get the chance, can you post screenshots before you send the next turn?

[DeepO]

I'll do my best. It won't be today, though, too busy (but as there won't be any turn arriving, that's okay )

I was thinking on updating the economical plans, and the time line, to see what's possible. At that time, screenies are easy to make.

DeepO

[DeepO]

sigh... never say something you might regret later... turn has arrived

No problem, if I can keep it relatively sober tonight, I can do it tomorrow morning. Sleepy, I hope I can post some screenshots before noon tomorrow, but it won't be tonight: I don't plan on going home after work. At least before I drowned the previous work week.

BTW, my home e-mail account has been fixed. At last.

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

hey deepo, its not a big deal, really. I was just wanting to see the placement of everything after you moved (which I can see upon the next saves arrival anyway)

Enjoy your evening