Our defense after marines

[asleepathewheel]

well, I know, but it would force them to declare war on us.


I think, by the lack of response and by the activity in lego forum (I've seen Zargon, VonD and LMToops post there today) they are debating what to do. I think we should prepare something to post to the public forum pleading with them to stand down. It might be fun, they take a hardline stance and we say "we just want you to move one square" hehe. Its all posturing at this point, as we all know roughly where we are headed and no one is likely to be swayed, but it might be a fun exchange

[DeepO]

There is still a slim chance that Lego thinks we want to race towards the SS victory... not too much public posturing, please. Just keeping queit, and pretending we're Lego's best friend is best

Oh, and privateer destroying doesn't start a war, sadly. Otherwise I wouldn't mind building a couple

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

True, we will just have to see VonD's response and act accordingly.

[Cort Haus]

It's been a while since I PM'd Theseus asking whether he's still up for some General-ing, and I've not heard back so it looks like we have to assume he's not going to be available to work on a detailed defence plan.

As I already have a war on the go as turnplayer for Cake or Death? in the DG2, it would be insane for me to offer to try to be a Defence General here simultaneously, but I will post my thoughts and ideas - as I've been doing.

DeepO keeps asking for volunteers but there have been no takers so far that I noticed.

So should we try Vel again to see if he's still interested?

or any other takers?

[asleepathewheel]

Vulture would do a great job, I think.

Theseus has been gone for awhile.

I'll pitch in where I can, but I'm likely to start a new job on the 5th eating up a tremendous amount of time (maybe up to 60hrs/week)

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
DeepO keeps asking for volunteers but there have been no takers so far that I noticed.

Now that you mention it....
We need a defense plan, urgently! 8 more turns to Lego marines, and seeing their unwillingness to move their forces out of the way, and their 'replacement' of caravels as scouts by warships (making the transports available to transport troops), we have to be prepared!

So should we try Vel again to see if he's still interested?

Vel is an ideas guy. I doubt he is going to do the 'dirty' work of photoshopping a precise plan, with precise number of troops and stuff like that. If you ask him, you will get nice ideas about whether conceptually something is better then something else, but it's not his piece of cake to plan something minutely.

However, it is not mine either, and I simply can't spend the time needed for another task... sorry, I have to ask for volunteers. Oh, and in case someone starts on this, I'm sure there will be enough input, but that initial task has to be taken by someone! So please, someone step forward, I know you're all more then able to do it right

DeepO

[DeepO]

dp.. poly doing strang again

[DeepO]

I agree vulture would make a fine MoW...

DeepO

[vulture]

Hey, I write programs that cruch numbers. I don't do planning...

More seriously, I should point out that I don't currently have a computer (due to theft of laptop back in Feb that still hasn't been replaced), although that might just be rectified this week. But I have no idea how much time I'll have available to devote to this. So I'll do what I can, but if anyone has more time they're more than welcome to do it instead.

[DeepO]

Something else to consider on the defense front: RP is our weak spot. If they are invaded, Lego threatens us, without actually attacking us. We would be forced to attack them, meaning they don't suffer the WW hit (and once RP is gone, they won't suffer WW from them either).

I'm not sure how we're going to deal with this. Certainly, we can reinforce Elipolis, but how are we going to keep Lego away from North Stormia?

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

It's not only us that could be vunerable if Lego took RP. GoW could face direct Marine attack.

The best deterrent to an attack on N Stormia is a massive navy to destroy the invasion fleet. Thing is, it would have to be visible, to deter, which would probably encourage Lego to build more ships, at least for its defence. The naval arms race looks difficult to avoid.

[DeepO]

Yes, and it has implications on how many ships we need to build to be able to land as well. Currently, we only spotted 2 Legonian iron clads, and have 2 destroyers to deal with them (which is enough). However, how many will we need to both have a deterence, a defense, and an offensive force?

Add to that, that from an econ PoV, ships need to come before units, as units are helped by mobilizing, units aren't

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

I'm looking at the Marines v Inf tables and possibly coming up with a component of the plan. It just might be the start of something.

Watch this space .....

[Cort Haus]

Hmmm, at this rate it will take me at least a thousand hours to come up with anything coherent, useful, and comprehensive. Now I understand why the Pentagon is such a large building.

As it's all so mind-boggling and with so many variables (scary numbers of variables), I tried to start with something tangible - the immediate threat on the turn Lego get Marines. This is the first problem to deal with and it's only seven turns away and counting .... :sweat:

We probably won't have any carriers, planes, battleships, subs or tanks by then, but we'll have just upgraded a load of Rifles to Infantry, which will be our main unit to start with.

To cut a long excuse short, I come up with the following, rather limited analysis on what we'd need to defend our east coast on the turn of Amphib if Lego knocked out all our scouts, and chained 12 Marines in to an unknown destination. It's unfinished, because I realised it was, if not a bull**** scenario then just one of an infinite number of hypotheticals .

We have 14 coastal cities and 6 inland cities.

Of the coastals, 7 face the Eastern, Legonian side, and 8 face the Western, Bobian side. (Eliopolis faces both seas.)

The immediate threat is considered to be the Western side, where the cities are Hurricane, Blizzard, Inchoff, WoC, Tornado and Sufa. The threat of an attack via RP is also considerable, and it is assumed that Eliopolis would always be a heavily-defended.

Without Artillery, to defend against a 12-marine attack (the number they might field on Turn Amphib + 0) we need 5 Infs in the 50% bonus cities (see below) for a for a defence-success probability of 79%. Vulture's table gave figures for 5 and 8 infs, but not 6 & 7. 6 Infs would probably be very comfy. 100% bonus cities are ~77% safe with 4 infs and 95% safe with 5 infs.

First, assume all our navy is destroyed and we don't know which of the 7 cities faces the attack.

To defend 3 cities @ 100% defence and 4 cities @ 50% defence from 12 Marines at a safety level of 75-80% we need (3*4)+(4*5)=32 Infantry. 4 in WoC, Inchoff & Hurricane and 5 in Eli, Inchoff, Blizzard,Tornado & Sufa.



Full defence bonuses:

Eliopolis : City - 50%
WoC : Metro - 100%
Inchoff : City - 50%
Blizzard : City - 50%
Hurricane : Metro - 100%
Tornado : City - 50%
Sufa : City - 50%



Coastal Hilled cities are Bolderberg and Inchoff.
Coastal Metros are Bolderberg, Typhoon, Hurricane, WoC



Other Tiles

14 coastal mountain forts and 5 Hill forts = 19 High ground tiles to defend, 11 on the east.

Also = 5 Furs, 5 Incense, 1 Oil, (3 iron on high ground - already defended)

I just copied it in there from my notes, but I don't think it's very useful. All my previous posts had been about heavy naval pickets to get advanced warning on the target zone, but with the naval arms race that would bring, I tried an opposite approach - what do we need if we take the navy out of the equation?

[Cort Haus]

To elaborate on my last point and to flag a key contradiction we face ...

It seems that our optimum naval defensive posture is one which says to Lego "you ain't getting through here without risking the farm".

Trouble is, if it succeeds in impressing Lego they'll just copy it, or will have designed the same system themselves. All those Legonian wannabe Transports will be surely be replaced with Destroyers soon. We can't have Transports on lookout with Lego Destroyers eveywhere, so we have to fill the ocean with our own Destroyers.

Closer to home, we could park major fleets outside our port cities which have to be seen if they are to deter, but would encourage Lego to do likewise.

Fascinating stuff, and reminiscent of the pre WW1 naval arms race. A weasel of a puzzle, though, and one of those variables that makes planning so difficult.