Grand Alliance to Undermine Lego (GAUL)

[Arrian]

Yeah, I posted elsewhere that Vulture is clearly the guy for ND, since he knows German. I'm fine with the change, though it was a bit odd on the timing (I had *just* become ambassador to ND). No biggie.

Definitely go for cash from ND/GoW for the remaining medieval techs. We simply don't care about MT - if we ARE to get it, I think we can argue we should get it on the cheap. We don't have to push this too hard, because I doubt GoW has that much free money anyway, but I don't want to just cave immediately either.

As for Vox... I think they should be treated as a subset of Lego. I think we should remind MZ that, while bringing Vox up in tech *might* get us 1 industrial age tech, it will also get Lego 1 industrial age tech - possibly one that could do BAD things to an invasion force (nationalism). With 3 teams cooperating, 1 tech is not that big a deal. For an isolated Lego, it's HUGE.

-Arrian

[Cort Haus]

The thing is, Vox might want to consider which horse to back in the long run. How much territory do they stand to gain under Lego? What could the conquerors offer them instead?

[DeepO]

okay, I finally got to this thread, after my holiday... a lot has already been said, of course. But still, some of my opinions:

1. We can't keep out of this war, period. We need to participate, not only diplomatically, but also seeing our resource situation. If we go in, we need a contract in which we somehow are guaranteed resources, either by corrupt land, or by trading to us.

2. We can't let GoW + ND split up Lego, no matter how bloody the war is. If Lego gets eliminated, we need a piece of the cake. But, most preferably, Lego lives, only damaged. I'ev read a couple of times that it doesn't matter if Lego is destroyed or not, that is not true. If Lego gets destroyed, ND will pay GoW with Lego land, and we will be on #3 (out of 4 teams), whereas now I consider us #2 (out of 6 teams) but fastly dropping behind ND.

So, either we fully commit to this war, and send not a token force, but a large force (not 20 or 30 cavs, but 60), or we somehow make sure GoW and ND can't destroy Lego and split the spoils.

3. Our invasion forces need either a settler, or a couple o workers, to make sure we can have some chance of defending our selves. (workers to add to a captured city, to get it above size 6)

4. RP needs to stay out for the moment, but have to be considered by RP and GoW as part of our participation. They can investigate cities for us. RP doing investigation = less commited troops from us.

5. In no way will we pay for Mil Trad. We don't need the tech, if they want to get us in, we are given it for free. No trust thing, this has to be a necessary condition... no credits, nor good will, or whatever.

6. SP is about the same: them giving it to us, is a fair price... sure, they trust us, but we can't do anything with SP. Muskets are not offensive units, we can't invade Bob with muskets. Coal and rubber is what we need, not SP. So, it may be a token of trust, it may not be part of our gains in this war.

7. That said, what do we want to gain? Obviously, Lego out of the picture would be good, but not if their place is taken by a stronger GoW and / or ND. Land is not really an option, or it should be a way of transporting RP off our island. And their land is rather ****ty. We could do a palace jump (I'm fairly certain GoW is looking for on, they will not raize cities, but try to hold on to anything captured), our FP placement is meant to allow a palace jump to Bob, so also to Lego. But that means we need most of Lego, not just one or two harbor cities.

Other gains? the promise GoW and ND will battle it out? Hmmm... not certain. Remember that when there was first talk of us joining them to destroy RP, one of the points in chat was that Lego was next. That clause is still active between them, this war is planned. They are right that Lego doesn't have a complete sea wall, where we have, and after RR it will be a lot messier to invade them. They have planned this all along, and I bet that it took them much too long to drive us off Bob, or they would have invaded Lego already.

So be careful with jumping into this war, without any clear gains for us. If we can enter without too much economical effort, ToE and Hoover are safe. Those 2 wonders are worth 1200 gold for me, by far. But they won't win us the game unless we have some plans for the future how to use them...

8. So, in the end, I say we enter the war, with a smaller force then they want us too (the 4 galleons worth of units should be fine), and the promise that we will pay RP to do some investigation for the alliance. (e.g. put 800 gold apart for that). That should be enough... I haven't read that GoW needs our participation, they just need assurances we will not invade them.

9. PS: GoW and ND do not need to protect themselves from each other, at least not atm. They didn't do it during the Bob-war either. See in the AAR that GoW thought we were a problem, and wanted to protect their cities against an invasion from us, not from ND. they marched through ND territory with almost all of their riders, when ND was very busy fighting RP... they could have back stabbed and taken them out nearly completely, but didn't. So expect that ND and GoW, once they are certain we're no threat, will land more troops then what they are saying now... I'm thinking of possibly 50+ riders, 50+ ansars, and a couple of muskets. Getting us in is just a diversion, a sure way to get us to keep to our NAP.

If in negoations, we hear something like "what you conquer is yours", we know what is happening: we will conquer 1 or 2 cities, and are just there to ensure Bob can be safe, and Lego will focus on us instead of on the Bobians. I wouldn't be surprised if our invasion plans are going to be leaked to Lego by GoW. So in this respect, do not mention where exactly we're going to land, as you can be sure Lego will be there, blocking our sites.

DeepO

[vmxa1]

I have said all along that they will not go at each other until they have locked down all the other threats.

If they get most or all of Lego, they will not even need to come for us, unless we could space ship them.

I am not so worried about them leaking us to Lego, that would kill any future deals.

Our two objectives are to 1- slow down Lego 2- try to get some resources out of the conflict.

If we could even move RP to Lego, that would be good. Any land there is a potential for resources and returning Stormia is going to allow us to do better.

[Cort Haus]

We're better off getting rent from RP up there unless they build markets and courthouses - which could be a while.

[DeepO]

Originally posted by vmxa1
I have said all along that they will not go at each other until they have locked down all the other threats.

Very true, but this point seems to be forgotten here... we guess both of them have 50 3-move units already, once they're sure of our stance, nothing is keeping them from invading Lego with all of their forces. We need somehow to take that into account, either by being able to land a lot more forces on Legoland ourselves.

Once Lego is gone, we have a window of ~20 turns before we van be attacked on that side, as no GoW or ND ships are on our East. That measn we only need half of our Sea wall, the other half can be protecting what little spoils we get from the Lego adventure. If Lego is losing too badly, we need to be prepared to send more troops!

I am not so worried about them leaking us to Lego, that would kill any future deals.

I'm not worried... but it is a possibility. I'm sure GoW would have thought that breaking deals with us would have killed any future deals, however they have done it 7 times before the NAP issue... I'm sorry to say it, but GS are wussies when it comes to holding grudges, we are the softies of the PTWDG

Our two objectives are to 1- slow down Lego 2- try to get some resources out of the conflict.

I agree, but let these be clear goals, and let all the rest depend on these. Otherwise we risk not accomplishing anything, just helping others win.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
We're better off getting rent from RP up there unless they build markets and courthouses - which could be a while.

Not if we plan on disbanding Arashi, timing it so a FP prebuild is ready in Elipolis. Extra tiles = extra commerce, so if we can get RP to dislocate, it is worth the rent.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Ultimately, yes - we want N.Stormia productively ours. I was thinking short-term about RP. One day we can disband Arashi with 195s on a prebuild in Eliopolis. Hmm, Eli finishes the lib soon ...

What we don't want do is reverse our builder-policy and go heavy on military. Disbanding the galleys was always risky, but we've benefitted from the extra gpt meanwhile. We have played to our strengths - commercial output and security - and the policy can pay off if we grab the ToE and give us a tech lead to aid our security.

I think it's likely that GoW-ND will hit each other after Lego, each seeking GS as ally - unless Lego's still a player. GoW would be our best ally because (1) ND have the land (2) GoW-GS could pincer ND (3) ND have less Naval potential to threaten us as they have no cities on our side of Bob's coast.

[OPD]

Yeah I'm starting to think that the less we invest in the hit on Lego the better. I've been looking at the map and GoW will need to take some of Lego's land so they don't loose out on later resources, right now they only have 2 tiles where oil could appear... Also both GoW and ND have a shed load of mounted units which will in time be redundant. The reality is that they are likely to attack Lego with or without us and then likely to take any land we take too.
Perhaps our involvement is simply to stop us aiding Lego as we did RP or perhaps to prevent a land on bob which could be devestating if they're all over there fighting Lego. They know we think Lego is the best bet for winning and are playing on this.

It would be interesting to bluff them and see if they'd do it without even an assurance from us that we wouldn't interfere but we really do want them to do it though.

It's also worth noting that the less we give to help gownd the harder it'll be for them. As always war benefits the bystander most.

[DeepO]

Cort, I'm the first to agree that we need to continue on the path we took, building our economy and science (nearly done), and then our production. We should not switch to full time military before we're ready.

However, we simply can't let ND and GoW take Legoland, and divide it, as Vox will surely follow. If we let that happen, the game is over for us, no matter if ND and GoW decide to battle it out between theirselves. If Lego starts to crumble, we need to have some sort of alternative plan to make sure we hold significant ground on Lego... seeing as our sea wall is not necessary in that scenario (as there won't be any ships on our East), we can use those units.

But I only see this as a backup plan, first priority would be to make this a bloody war, in which no side really gains a lot, with minimal effort from our side. If that fails, we have to seriously increase the effort (by that time, we would be around completing ToE, BTW, if the war starts in 10-15 turns, we will know how it goes around turn 20-25.), or we lose.

DeepO

[OPD]

Can we get RP to build some conquistadors and land them against ND when the war begins, they may be able to raise a few good cities with their range over any tiles.

[DeepO]

Unfortunately, ND will have 3 move units, on road network, meaning 9 tiles of movement. Any kind of invasions needs to be big enough to withstand that... I don't think RP would be up to it.

I'd love to see it happen, though... us helping ND, while RP fights them

DeepO

[vmxa1]

Originally posted by DeepO
Cort, I'm the first to agree that we need to continue on the path we took, building our economy and science (nearly done), and then our production. We should not switch to full time military before we're ready.

However, we simply can't let ND and GoW take Legoland, and divide it, as Vox will surely follow. If we let that happen, the game is over for us, no matter if ND and GoW decide to battle it out between theirselves. If Lego starts to crumble, we need to have some sort of alternative plan to make sure we hold significant ground on Lego... seeing as our sea wall is not necessary in that scenario (as there won't be any ships on our East), we can use those units.

But I only see this as a backup plan, first priority would be to make this a bloody war, in which no side really gains a lot, with minimal effort from our side. If that fails, we have to seriously increase the effort (by that time, we would be around completing ToE, BTW, if the war starts in 10-15 turns, we will know how it goes around turn 20-25.), or we lose.

DeepO

I think that is the crux of the matter. We want to see Lego lose some land or at least have to back up a ton on their research and infrasructure.

We don't mind if they are reduce considerably, as long as we get a piece of the land.

If it is to be just a monkey wrench in Legos gears and we do not have put much up, then great.

If it is a huge beating for Lego and we are left out, then it will be very rough.

I agree we can avoid a huge commmitment to start, until we see how things are going.

[Theseus]

I haven't fully thought it through, but my simplistic view is that we have a serious shot at a win if 1) Lego is taken out of the race, 2) ND and GoW's offensive forces are burned, and 3) ND's production power is severely diminished.

#1 can hopefully be arranged.

#2 will hopefully be take place on Legoland... but further, can we suck them into North Stormia for a scorched earth destruction? Much less see them burn up each other?

#3 is the interesting one... for instance, what if, pre-RR completion, we could maneuver to a 1-2 turn mass pillaging by RP? With us razing just several key cities?

It ain't over, it ain't over, it ain't over.

[asleepathewheel]

edit: I know this is out of place, but T's comments always get me pumped.

One point about RP in the post steam era.

ND hasn't built anything on the east coast of bob. Whats the chance that they are going to have a decent road network going there, much less a decent rail system. I imagine they have spotters every other 3rd or 4th square but they won't have a full force. Think of what some Conqui's could do to that! They land a few cavs to take out the spotters nearby and 10-15 conqu's will be able to run wild pillaging everything. ND has a real weakness on their eastern flank and our one ally has a potent weapon to be unleashed.