Industrial Research with GoW

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by OPD


The main difference is that there is no pop up telling you when someone steals or fails to steal a tech from you.

you don't know when someone tries but fails?

That really really sucks

that we didn't steal to get invention and gunpowder

[OPD]

I'd estimate the cost of stealing Vox's free tech would be around 2000 gold, and the cost of stealing electronics or atomic theory to be around 2500 gold both of which would cost in excess of 4000 beakers to research.

However I really don't know about the success rates there maybe all kinds of things that influence that, perhaps having been at war with someone would make it harder to steal. Or perhaps the succes rate is always the same (only being dependant on how safely you choose to stea)l, and the cost of the steal is the only things that changes.

[Cort Haus]

Vulture, I was thinking not long term but immediate-term tech-power - the 20% explansion in scientific output over the last 10-15 turns, the good chance of bagging both Sci Wonders, including one in the Colossus city, and the fact that we'll have a lighter military to maintain than the other sides going into the IA.

I don't know the costs and probabilities of espionage, but if stealing, not researching is the way to go then our plans are in tatters. What's the point of building ToE now? None. What's the point of doing any research after Espionage? None. What's the point of building all these libraries? None. The game suddenly doesn't look like the game I know, and doesn't sound like a game I'd like.

{edit, 1st para addressing vulture}

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
I was thinking not long term but immediate-term tech-power - the 20% explansion in scientific output over the last 10-15 turns, the good chance of bagging both Sci Wonders, including one in the Colossus city, and the fact that we'll have a lighter military to maintain than the other sides going into the IA.

I don't know the costs and probabilities of espionage, but if stealing, not researching is the way to go then our plans are in tatters. What's the point of building ToE now? None. What's the point of doing any research after Espionage? None. What's the point of building all these libraries? None. The game suddenly doesn't look like the game I know, and doesn't sound like a game I'd like.

cheer up CH, we don't know what's going to happen yet.

I am going to hate it if the game turns out like this as well.

[OPD]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
if stealing, not researching is the way to go then our plans are in tatters. What's the point of building ToE now? None. What's the point of doing any research after Espionage? None. What's the point of building all these libraries? None. The game suddenly doesn't look like the game I know, and doesn't sound like a game I'd like.

I don't know if it's that serious, I think the risk of theft should be a consideration, as should the possibility of using it ourselves.

Alot of the time it'll likely be better to research it at 2nd researcher rates after factoring in succes rates to the steal cost.

Whether other teams will even be aware of the possibility is another matter and we can protect ourselves by DoW should we think it a serious enough risk for a certain time frame.

[Cort Haus]

I thought the only point of espionage was building spaceships in OCC. This is an MP exploit, IMV. The probablities of success is clearly too high and the probability of penalty too low. The risk is upside-down, when it's more dangerous to research tech than to steal it. For me, it sucks to hell and back. I hope we have players who relish it, GS will need them.

[vulture]

Someone's got to do research at some point, or there is nothing to steal.

BTW, what happens if you try and steal a tech from a civ that doesn't have any techs that you don't know? I still have never played a single turn in PBEM, but I gather that you can't see what techs a civ has. We can tell from analysing tech depreciation how many civs have a tech, but if just one civ has it (out of Lego, ND, GoW) we'd have a 1/3 chance of guessing the right one - typically you'll have to have two goes to get a tech that way, and less than 100% success rate.

If there is reliable intel about who has which techs (from tech trading deals arranged - although misinformation can be spread that way as well) then staling becomes more attractive. But if you are doing it blind, you're going to be putting in say 2.5 tech steals to get a tech that one civ has, and 1.5 to get a tech that 2 civs have. If you don't mind a living a little of the pace, this may be the way to go - it might cost you in terms of prebuilds for wonders, but they're all gone fairly early in the industrial era.

Perhaps first order of the day is to find info on success rates for stealing techs under various circumstances / mission safeties.

(BTW if you fail to steal a tech, do you lose the spy as in SP, but with no warning to the other side, or do you get to keep the spy for another go?)

[OPD]

I think it just says no new technology found, also I think it'd probably be possible to workout who has a tech as the cost of stealing appears to be dependant on how advanced a nation is, so it could simply be a case of the team who's cost of stealing from has gone up slightly from last turn is the team with the tech.
You don't need to have a spy to steal a tech, unless you're at war, and I don't know if you loose the spy in a failed atempt. When stealing you do get a choice of any of the techs they have that you have the pre-requisites for, but don't see what techs they have that you don't have the pre-requisites for.


However the old elements of tech trading will still be in place, such as always lining up the sale of a tech before researching it, agreeing a price with every other team for a tech before starting would eliminate this problem.

[Cort Haus]

I think you might need enough gold to access the steal-mechanism - probably more than we've ever had on hand. I think I tried looking at this part of the interface once, but it was disabled. If I can find the turn around finishing Banking with one scientist, there may be some cash in the till, but probably not enough.

So yes, as has been said, this could be an opportunity for us as much as anyone but we haven't invested hundreds of hours planning an espionage campaign, we've invested hundreds of hours planning a research and wonder-building campaign. I think we have no choice but to stay on course and see what happens.

[OPD]

Yeah I doubt anyone would suggest we change any plans, I'm certainly not suggesting that.

You can see how much it would cost at any time if you have an embassy, it's actually quite useful. If it is infact the case that stealing goes up the more techs someone has then you can tell who has more tech each turn.

For example the cost of stealing from Vox has been the same since 540 bc so they probably haven't gained any tech since then?

I don't have all the saves, but the cost to steal from ND went up between 560 bc and 580 bc and has been constant since then.

Also in 600bc the fact that it is most expensive to steal from Lego suggests they have at least 1 tech that everyone else doesn't, also GoW probably have 1 tech that ND don't have with lego having 2 techs more than ND.

[OPD]

I've been looking at the costs a bit more closely, in the above post change all BC's to AD's btw
Each tech gained looks to be increasing the cost to steal by about 50 gold. On that assumption

In 600 AD
Lego have 5 techs more than Vox
Lego have 2 more than GoW
Lego have 3 more than ND

GoW have 1 more than ND
GoW have 3 more than Vox

As we know that only Lego have music theory (prob) and they have monarchy which none of GoW, ND or Vox have. That puts them in realistic terms at

3 more than vox
even with GoW
1 more than ND

As we know that Vox only need physics for parity with us which Lego also need that would imply that Lego have metallurgy, navigation and economics that we don't have.
As GoW have physics that Lego don't but are still at the same level that would imply that GoW have metallurgy and one of Economics or Navigation.
As ND are one more behind that would suggest they have metallurgy that we don't but neither of Econ or Nav.
Unless of course someone has MT which would be a different matter.

Note the above is only speculation built on speculation, so a good chance of being completley wrong.

[DeepO]

I'm just back from a one-week holiday (went shark spotting (diving), but only saw 6 or 7, and no hammerheads), and not fully into the discussion here yet, but some factors that might have impact on the tech stealing costs:
- established embassy or not
- built intelligence agency (both ours and the enemies)
- distance of capitals
- accessibility (only Lego and Vox have ocean tiles separating from us, the rest has coastal tiles)

I would suspect that a built intelligence agency decreases the chances of a spy stealing our techs, so we should consider that a priority, even if it denies us a prebuild possibility. Also, getting spies everywhere could become important later on, so let's try that asap as well... even if it means we get behind on tech for one turn, as we need to save on cash

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

OPD, that analysis looks interesting, and close to the relativ e tech levels. I didn't think GOW have Econ or Nav yet though. Beaker counts suggested 10% deval on each last time I checked. Worth keeping an eye on.

[Theseus]

Off-topic: DeepO, where'd you dive? Red Sea?

[DeepO]

Off-topic again () yup... Red Sea, Egypt, near the border with Sudan. St John's reef dive safari, normally a sure spot to see all kind of sharks. Unfortunately we only saw white tip reef sharks, and not that many (10 or so during the 6 days and 17 dives). We should have spotted hammerheads, but the weather was too rough to climb into the zodiak, let alone jump out of it.

But, we did saw 2 manta ray... one fairly close by on one dive (about 10 meters away, and he was swimming away from us), the other on a dive I missed (Murphy ), being curious, and coming around to check out the group. Unbelievebale pictures were taken by our guide, I'm very sorry I missed it... but I saw lots of other good stuff, I can't complain.

DeepO