Turn 390AD

[Cort Haus]

Further analysis : f*uck the SP - lets get out alive

So we have a plan for an effective withdrawal that concedes the land, has no time to pillage, but gets at least 30 of our units out - enough to make a good start on our sea wall.

The alternative is to try and stick it out, but the current risk/benefit outlook doesn't look good for staying, in my view.

It comes down to boats - to get most of our troops off we must take 18 units away this turn to get the boats back for the rest. This means we have to commit to a withdrawal now. If we stay, we might be able to grab some saltpeter, but for what, and at what cost?

We'll spend units holding GoW off. If there is any SP, they know where it is and could put their monster stack there. We have to get there, road it, keep a barracks city to upgrade the pikes - if there are many left, and stop research again to raise money. More turns, more attrition. We might be able to upgrade 4 pikes but will they and anyone else escape - and what are we going to do with them if we do get them out? Sitting on the coast doesn't need an expensive upgrade. vmxa1 got me thinking about this when he asked whether the SP was worth it. I said at the time that it was worth it but then I didn't anticipate that GoW would come after us rather than Pamplona.

Our path is clear. Or rather - it will be once we snip that road and start the escape. The alternative is death and sacrifice and possible GoW GL's - for nothing.

If anyone can modify the plans to include pillaging some hills round NM without impairing our own escape, then fine, but I spent hours last night staring at it and am convinced that sleepy's snip-and-run idea is our best option.

OK, so the bastards get a load of nice mines - but in the event of Bob vs Lego next we wanna see Lego get hurt, right?

[Arrian]

If we cut the road, they cannot bring the cats to bear this next turn. The Riders would have to attack w/o cat support.

How many units (and what types) could we have on the Barc4 hill waiting for them?

-Arrian

[Arrian]

I'm not against evacuation, not at all (I don't consider saltpeter to be very important to us, frankly), but I'm always looking for ways to make the enemy bleed.

-Arrian

[Cort Haus]

If we were to try and hold Barc-4 after snipping the road we could have 4 pikes, 5 knights, 2 cats and 3 MI.

[Cort Haus]

OK, if we can make them bleed without leaving us short for our own defences.

I hadn't considered defending Barc-4 once their cat access was denied. How would the odds look against 15 riders - plus possibly more coming through behind. They must have roaded Merida-96 to get those cats there.

[Cort Haus]

ND could join in too.

[Arrian]

So 9 units that defend at 3 (4.5 because of the hill), and 3 that defend at 2 (3 because of the hill), with 2 cat shots to soften. Are any of our unit true fortified?

They have 15 Riders. Hrm, we are likely to lose such a battle if they choose to attack all-out, but we're also likely to hurt them. What would we have available to counterattack with the next turn (knights from the Pamp332 stack?)?

I actually think they would wait to bring up the cats.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
ND could join in too.

How? The road would have to be 2 tiles wide, which it isn't.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

By the way, in conjunction with this evacuation, are we in a position to perhaps rush some workers in our Spanish cities to grab some of the pop as we cut and run?

-Arrian

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Arrian
So 9 units that defend at 3 (4.5 because of the hill), and 3 that defend at 2 (3 because of the hill), with 2 cat shots to soften. Are any of our unit true fortified?

They have 15 Riders. Hrm, we are likely to lose such a battle if they choose to attack all-out, but we're also likely to hurt them. What would we have available to counterattack with the next turn (knights from the Pamp332 stack?)?

I actually think they would wait to bring up the cats.

-Arrian

Does that mean fortified the previous turn? I though that even if a unit had 1/3 of a movement point left it got properly fortified, and only the 'fortify all' command left units with 0mp not truly fortified.

Whatever, All those units except 3 knights were there and fortified last turn.

For countering - yes we have 7 knights, including one at 4/5.

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Arrian
By the way, in conjunction with this evacuation, are we in a position to perhaps rush some workers in our Spanish cities to grab some of the pop as we cut and run?

-Arrian

Yes, we could rush a worker in Barca and Sirocco may even have more than 10s in the box - I can check later. Galley capacity per turn is above.

[Cort Haus]

re : ND getting there too

I was thinking more of them sweeping in from the North, onto the mountains near Pamp.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Cort Haus

Does that mean fortified the previous turn? I though that even if a unit had 1/3 of a movement point left it got properly fortified, and only the 'fortify all' command left units with 0mp not truly fortified.

Whatever, All those units except 3 knights were there and fortified last turn.

For countering - yes we have 7 knights, including one at 4/5.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure about the fortification rules. Let's assume for now that we've got 3 unfortified knights there, plus the rest that are fortified.

4 pikes, 2 knights, and 3 MI will be fortified.

Therefore, we will have 6 units that defend at 5.25, 3 units that defend at 4.5, and 3 units that defend at 3.5. And 2 cat shots. Even if their 15 riders win control of Barc4, we can counterattack with 7 knights the following turn.

BY THE WAY, YOU MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ATTEMPTING TO DESTROY THE ROAD VIA CAT BOMBARD, if possible! Then we don't have to use a unit.

-Arrian

[Theseus]

What good does it do us to damage the 15 Riders if we are evacuating?

Let GoW duke it out with someone else.

[Cort Haus]

They could bring in more riders from Alamo to reinforce Barc-4, should they take it, limiting the appeal of a counter-attack with seven knights.

Judging by the powergraph and the F3, ND took some damage themselves at the forest of doom, but GoW are relatively stronger. I think they committed about 12 riders per turn to the current battle - losing perhaps 5 on the first turn and another couple this turn. Some are healing, but they could easily have another dozen units to send in next turn.

Yes, we can definitely make GoW bleed a bit this way but at what price to ourselves, if we have nothing left to defend Stormia?