Turn 111, 350 BC

[Aeson]

If we land on E7 this turn we can cut their roads though, and they can't get to Millertown in time to do stop us from taking/razing it. To even counterattack the city the turn after we'd take it (if we take it of course) they have to get through a Pike (and WC) first, and they'd only have 3 Immortals in that first stack to attack with.

It also would give them good reason to keep their stacks moving N, increasing Inchon's safety by quite a bit. It's going to look like we're trying to take Elipolis, and given what we can land, and what they probably have in there, they're going to need their Pikes and Cats to move onto E6 next turn, otherwise they can't hit our stack at all, and can't take back Elipolis for extra turns if we did break through.

If they are going to blow their entire offensive force trying to take Inchon (they would lose most of their Immortals remaining to do so, even if they're lucky), all the better for us... especially if we take their Harbor out in the meantime. We aren't going to have good chances to counterattack as they are pretty well covered by Pikes, so our Med Inf and WC aren't all that useful in there at this point.

If it comes down to it though, I'd trade razing Miller Town and/or Wittlich for having Inchon razed (and most of Vox's offensive capacity killed) anyday. Our success isn't assured in our raid, but we still have very good odds with just 8 Pikes if Vox attacks Inchon.

As for the Galley problem, we could then just land on Wittlich 2.

[Aeson]

So we're going to use that Elites WC's to do what? Attack Pikes fortified in Elipolis once they get there? Upgrade it to a Knight?

It seems to me that Vox is in deep trouble at this point, as long as we can keep ahead of their troops going N. Inchon caught them with their pants down. Iron not hooked up, and building Warriors for upgrade. Once they get ahead of us, it's going to be long and drawn out, and our casualties are going to be higher than Vox's in every city we have to take. We have the units to be successful at it, but this is our big chance to do some cheap, effective damage. It's not guaranteed, but I think the odds are much higher than sending those same Med Infs against Pikes fortified in Elipolis later on.

[zeit]

I have to agree with Aeson- our WCs are close to useless in
Inchon, and taking Elipolis now has almost zero chance to succeed (with 4 Immortals + Cats to attack it just after we take it, if taken in the first round of attacks). And WC are next to useless where they are, especially when Vox seems to rush at least part of its troops back home.

A suicide mission with our WC- I won't object that if we have a chance at taking on Vox's core- and this window of opportunity is nearly close.

Nathan- we'll have plenty of time and opportunity to get into a bogged down siege against Elipolis, if this operation fails. Our lose will be close to nothing in terms of overall war-production. We'd lose perhaps a turn of GA production. OTOH, our chances for hurting Vox so bad that its game over for them are too good to pass on.

I say we load those WCs, and get them along with our 4 Med. Inf, a Pike and a Cat (or two Pikes). The rest can stay in Inchon for now.

Think about it- our main advantage over Vox in defense was mobility- our WCs hit them from no where and disappeared before they had a chance to react. Our last chance to be at a mobility advantage again is this turn.
Let us not waste this chance.

[nbarclay]

If we want to go after Vox's core, I'm inclined to go for stealth rather than trying to cut Vox off. If Vox moves to reinforce Miller Town, Wittlich City (which should be considered our primary target due to its harbor) is still likely to be almost as vulnerable. And there's a very real chance that if Vox doesn't see us making active moves to go around them again, they won't move to reinforce in time. In that case, having an extra elite WC (six offensive units instead of five) could significantly improve our odds of getting Miller Town and Wittlich City both in our raid, taking out a third of Vox's core.

I'll leave the turn open until probably around 10:00 a.m. Apolyton time, but I probably won't have much time for further discussion. My current inclination is to go for a five galley/two pike/four MedInf/two WC deep raid (using an empty galley as escort), keeping our forces out to sea where hopefully Vox won't see them coming until it's too late.

[nbarclay]

I just realized something that may throw a damper on our scheming. Miller Town is within three tiles of The Voice, Harry's Hideout, Beta-by-the-Sea, and Wittlich City. That makes it both a great place for whatever central reserve Vox might be able to pull together and a place that can be reinforced easily from its neighbors. Vox could even pull off a cascade, reinforcing Wittlich from Miller Town and Miller Town from the other three. I think we pretty definitely need to think in terms of hitting Wittlich first, since if we go after Miller Town first, there's a chance the attack will fail and a bigger chance it won't leave us enough survivors to hit Wittlich.

[vulture]

I've done the usual combat odds for the immortals next to our city. I'm assuming their pikes won't attack. For their three catapults, I'm assuming 1 hit (which is slightly optimistic in Vox's favour, but the difference between that and reality is pretty small (IIRC there is an equal prob of a cat attacking population, improvements or defenders, and since they can have no effect on the first two, on average only one cat gets to attack a pike, and is about 50:50 to do damage)).

I have their attack force as 6 veteran immortals and 5 regular (and 2 more regular can arrive next turn, and attack in 2 turns).

With 6 pikes defending:
34% chance of losing the town, 6.2 attackers killed on average, most likely outcome 7 dead immortals, 2 defenders survive
With 7 pikes defending:
11% chance of losing the town, 6.9 attackers killed on average, most likely outcome 7 dead immortals, 3 defenders survive
With 8 pikes defending:
2% chance of losing the town, 7.3 attackers killed on average, most likely outcome 8 dead immortals, 5 defenders survive
With 9 pikes defending:
0.2% chance of losing the town, 7.5 attackers killed on average, most likely outcome 8 dead immortals, 6 defenders survive.

Pike defense value is taken to be 5.25 (fortified, on hill, no town bonus). I'd say that 8 pikes is the minimum we would be happy with in Inchon next turn. I can live with a 2% chance of losing a town, but not a 11% chance (except in an emergency, but if you are willing to take those kinds of risks normally, you'll lose one sooner than you expect).

[nbarclay]

If we use two pikes to cover an assault, that would leave eight.

[OPD]

What are the chances that we could drop a few units behind Eliopolis to pillage the roads. It looks like the pike/immortal stacks that are retreating (if they are retreating) are the only thing that can really save them. If we could slow them down a couple of turns we could wreak alot more havok in their core.

One pike and 2 WCs woulc probably buy us 2 turns.

[nbarclay]

I went ahead and took out the eastern immortals. No losses on our side, and one WC promoted to elite.

[Aeson]

We can decide which to hit when we get there at least. The landing site (if not blocked, or the galley path blocked) splits the two cities.

Without hitting the roads, my fear is that Vox isn't just running into Elipolis, but that they are running back to their core realizing we could hit them there too. If so, we could expect Vox's N Inchon stack in Miller Town, with the other stacks a turn and two removed for support.

The landing on E7 might look like a complete failure to Vox (or almost complete) depending on how many units they have in the city (and if they have a Barracks). They don't get to see the battles on our turn, so if we suddenly are missing our Med Infs, they could be fooled that we have lost them attacking and are just settling for some pillaging with the WC. Depends on if they can see BbtS 111 and our Galleys.

[Aeson]

To highlight that chance that Vox is fooled into thinking we attacked (and failed), maybe we should only drop 2 WC's, a Pike, and a Med Inf. Even if they have a Spear and a Warrior in the city, there is a decent chance we'd lose an attack with a Med Inf against the Spear, and a WC against a Warrior.

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by OPD
What are the chances that we could drop a few units behind Eliopolis to pillage the roads. It looks like the pike/immortal stacks that are retreating (if they are retreating) are the only thing that can really save them. If we could slow them down a couple of turns we could wreak alot more havok in their core.

One pike and 2 WCs woulc probably buy us 2 turns.

The problem is that we have only a limited number of units in the area. WCs we use to pillage can't be used to attack, and pikes we use to protect pillaging WCs can't defend Inchon or the attack force. If we want eight pikes and a cat on Inchon, we only have two pikes, four MedInfs, and two elite WCs that we can use for other operations. So the more we put into pillaging to set up a deep strike, the less we have available for the strike itself.

[zeit]

About Miller Town and Wittlich- If we land between the two towns- we force Vox to split whatever defenders they have, and we get to pick where to attack.

[Aeson]

Nice job in the desert BTW!

[nbarclay]

Remember that we don't get to see what's in each city except for the first defender, so if Vox has a vet spear in each city, they could have anything (short of a pike) or nothing beneath it.