Turn 111, 350 BC

[vulture]

Originally posted by Dominae

Exactly. They're betting we will not declare war on another civ at this point, even if it is just to take one city.

In any case, the opportunity is there to grab Beta-by-the-Sea. Why not make a lunge for it next turn?

That's a gamble I wouldn't be willing to take if I were them - if I were in Vox, I'd guess that the net result would be that GS controls Elipolis, but has worse relations with everyone else as a consequence. I don't think the trade-off is worth it unless they are convinced they are going out of the game and want do as much damage as possible before that - which doesn't appear to be their mindset yet.

On BbtS - if the attack on Elipolis is judged too unlikely to succeed, then Bbts makes sense as the next target, giving us a staging area to bring in more troops to finish them off.

[Shiber]

I wouldn't take it if I were them either.
I think that they still believe that there is hope for peace with them still on this continent. They know that such a move will kill every last chance they have for survival on this continent - let's hope that by the time that they realize that we are committed to driving them off of our continent one way or another and go radical, it will be too late for them.

[nbarclay]

I went ahead and went with a large-scale landing behind Elipolis: two pikes, three MedInfs, and two WCs. That should go well with our words about no peace on our continent, I hope. We have a complication, though: Vox has a regular galley at E4, and RP has a vet galley at E4-7. I'm going ahead and sending the turn, but it will be this evening (U.S. time) before I have time to send out shots.

[ManicStarSeed]

Originally posted by nbarclay
....RP has a vet galley at E4-7. ...

I hope this galley is just mapping a trade route. Maybe this will help us avoid having to trade our WM.
We should bring it up in discussions with RP. As long as it is a single galley, I have no issues letting it through our costal waters. We will have to leap frog defensive units in our costal towns and keep one turn ahead of them. We also need to keep one or two offensive units within striking range incase they land any troops....

Mss

[Arrian]

Hmm... do we really want to allow other civ's ships into our waters?

My gut reaction is no. The reason we won't trade our map is that keeping our map to ourselves helps us defend ourselves. There is a LOT of valueable info that could be gleened via a galley going 'round our coast.

Then again, trying to stop them will 1) probably piss them off; and/or 2) require military action - whether this means setting up a blockade or actually sinking their galley.

-Arrian

[zeit]

I went ahead and went with a large-scale landing behind Elipolis: two pikes, three MedInfs, and two WCs. That should go well with our words about no peace on our continent, I hope. We have a complication, though: Vox has a regular galley at E4, and RP has a vet galley at E4-7. I'm going ahead and sending the turn, but it will be this evening (U.S. time) before I have time to send out shots.

You mean on E7?

I don't think we finished working on our manuever- and why only 3 Med. Infs, we'll need at least 4 to have a decent chance at the city.

What of the other two Med. Infs, are they gonna sit doing nothing while the attack takes place?

I think it was way too premature to play send the turn.

[nbarclay]

I agree that it was premature, but it was also what I had time for. I couldn't have counted on getting back this evening in time to finish it within the 24-hour limit, so I did the best I could under the circumstances.

I view the move to threaten Elipolis as a feint, not as a serious attempt to attack the city. From there, we can either take our troops on to Wittlich or pull them back to Inchon.

[Aeson]

If we send 6 units to Wittlich/Miller Town, how many empty Galleys does that leave us to sink Vox's ship (if they don't run... which I would from all our Galleys)

Do we think we could get a chat with Vox? If they really are leaving our continent, that changes things greatly. I think most of us are in favor of peace if they give us their land, right?

[Aeson]

The 2 WC's was genious IMO (or a lucky accident ). We can leave 1 WC to move 9 and cut the road, cover with a Pike. Pillage the road at the landing site with the other WC, then move it into the ships with the rest of the units. That leaves Elipolis with no road connection to the N for certain, it means we beat Vox's units N for (almost) certain. (RP could possibly help block us from landing Wittlich)

[zeit]

You bet I am in favor of peace on those terms...

This is dreamy- Having our own island, without much bloodshed.

[Theseus]

Or GLs.

[FrustratedPoet]

Originally posted by Theseus
Or GLs.

We were lucky to get one.

[vulture]

Are the WCs we landed behind Elipolis elite?

If so, and the forces in Elipolis are the ones we've seen (1 fortified vet warrior, 1 fortified vet spear, 1 vet spear, 1 reg spear) then we have an 81% chance against the town.

If they've managed to get a second veteran warrior in there, we have a 51% chance. A third, and we're down to 16%.

No extra warriors, but one extra reg spear (I'm assuming they preferentially sent their vets south to upgrade to pikes) gives us 46%.

We're looking at 1.5-2 units lost on average.

If we think it is likely that they haven't put any extra units in, it is worth going for. Otherwise I think that the pillaging, followed by a bigger landing next to the worse-defended Beta-by-the-Sea makes more sense.

[Aeson]

Are the WCs we landed behind Elipolis elite?

I think so.

If peace with Vox looks like it's going to happen, I wouldn't mind hitting Elipolis just for the 2 shots at GL's. Otherwise I think it's probably better to head up further N with the Galleys.

[nbarclay]

We'd presumably be dealing with a minimum of one fortified vet spear and two unfortified vet spears. Yes, both WCs are elite.

I think it would be in horribly bad taste to attack a city just because we think a peace agreement is likely. Consider the propaganda mileage Vox could get out of it if we attack after Vox agrees to the basic principles for a cease-fire that we set forth.