To Apolytonia-Treatise in rebuttal of Case Pink

[jdjdjd]

Re: Re: To Apolytonia-Treatise in rebuttal of Case Pink

Originally posted by Sir Ralph


Your logic is flawed. The worst we can face this time in a city is 2 regular spearmen. Take 2 veteran archers, take in account that the spears have a little defense bonus. Ok, the chance to win with 2 archers is about 50%. We have 6.

OK, I can see why you feel confident. But how do you know for sure they will not be veteran spearman by the time we get there, what about barbarian attacks we can not see? and how do you know our first archer does not lose and cause them to be veteran or elite. And their science is much more advance they may have horsemen or swordman by then. I can't see the terrain of Paris, I assume no one can yet, but it may very well be on a hill.

Originally posted by Sir Ralph

No, if we strike while the AIs expand. They don't build temples now, but settlers and spears. They have the same culture like we, only from the Palace.

But, based on the foreign ministers last report, both France and America were already looking down on our culture. The boost we get from a temple, is a big help in turning that tide, as well as the boost to happiness concerns.

Originally posted by Sir Ralph

With peace treaties.

So why not make a few bucks, with peace treaties again.

Again, hinging everything on a victory, and that they will look to settle for peace, before countering are attack.

Originally posted by Sir Ralph

The worst what can happen is, that they sneak attack us now. We'll be helpless. We would also be, if we followed your plan. Once we have barracks and 2-3 units, nothing can happen to us anymore.The AI tactics are lousy and we have a wonderful killzone in the midst of our (planned) cities.

I agree, but I am talking about defensive units so they don't come in and walk all over us. The other thing we should do is keep an open dialog with both of them, to keep them from wanting to attack us.

I do not consider myself the best or most experienced of civ players, clearly you have more game knowledge than me or most people at this site. I hope someone else chimes in and helps with any ideas regarding getting ourselves on our way, other than Case Pink.

What was talked about was challenging ourselves to try and win this game on a higher level, not just from military assault. We can not just exclude all other considerations for the military, we need something to fall back on.

We are an industrious and religious society, we should not forget that, and try to take advantage of it while we dig out of our start position. We should juggle the military with cultural and scientific concerns, so that we are not destroyed at such a young age, should those six archers fail.

[Harovan]

Re: Re: Re: To Apolytonia-Treatise in rebuttal of Case Pink

Originally posted by jdjdjd
True, until we plant more cities we are limited.

If we would be so lucky to catch a resource with a settler near the AI territory, which I doubt, since the AI knows the resource locations before we do, we would need to hook up the resource and build a road through the whole jungle. An effort much bigger than Case Pink.

Of course, that depends on the location of the city in relation to the capital. But, don't Freanch or American cities pose a similar problem with corruption, not too mention the problems with unhappiness and possible culture flipping.

The AIs play at Regent and have 3 content citizens, only the 4th is unhappy. They need only 80% of the food we need to grow in population. They need only 80% of the shields we need to produce. And I assume, at least the French have decent land and do not need to settle in the middle of nowhere.

Or you can build a worker and send him to cut through jungle to yield some additional shields to get rid of the useless entertainer. Or start to build a settler or worker while still at size three. Before even getting to size four.

And where do you want to settle?

We need to keep our settlers up as well.

A settler founds a city, that gives us 4 more free units, at least under despotism. A worker costs while he exists. Except free captured workers. But with "give peace a chance" you won't get such.

I do not see the swamps you talk of, but I have not viewed the saved game, just the images posted by Trip.

I call the jungle swamps. It's the same, food and productionwise. In Civ2, there were 2 different tile types, that were practically the same: Jungle and swamps.

There is enough land west of the river, where I guess you are saying has a flood plain. It includes bonus grass as well as the coast. West of the river...time will tell.

Is that there, where the French capital is? Culture flipping in the ADs, anyone? Unless we take it, that is.

We need more cities is my point. Perhaps you know better where to place them, but regardless we need to build them.

I concur. And I'm trying to secure a better place. A place, where we should try to jump our capital to.

Yes, and you see where the French Capitol is? We have to build our culture to prevent them from flipping us.

One more reason to poprush a temple, and pronto. And to take the French capital, that produces this "horrible" culture. Although it's not higher than ours, not yet.

[Harovan]

Re: Re: Re: To Apolytonia-Treatise in rebuttal of Case Pink

Originally posted by jdjdjd
OK, I can see why you feel confident. But how do you know for sure they will not be veteran spearman by the time we get there, what about barbarian attacks we can not see? and how do you know our first archer does not lose and cause them to be veteran or elite. And their science is much more advance they may have horsemen or swordman by then. I can't see the terrain of Paris, I assume no one can yet, but it may very well be on a hill.

Neither the French nor the Yanks are militaristic. That means, barracks are not among the first buildings in their build queue. Upgrades defending against barbs are possible. However, in a non-mil civ victories don't lead so quick to a promotion.

There is no 100% chance to win a battle. And never will be as long as randomness makes the combat results. There is a chance (maybe 0.00000000000000001% or so), that a conscript warrior wins against 10 modern armor. But we don't talk about extremes. We talk about a good chance to win. I assume, it's 90% or more. I played more than a dozen games with this strategy on monarch and emperor. Sometimes I was more lucky, sometimes less. But I never saw a disaster. Never ever. The AI doesn't want protracted wars in the expansion phase. They won't massively counterattack and have nothing to strike with. Not yet.

About swordsmen and other bad guys: I attacked a Japanese city with a hooked up iron resource with archers in a game not long ago. They had the iron connected long ago. It was around 700-800BC. I had bought Iron working from them earlier, so they had it for sure. What do you think, how many swordsmen did I meet? Zero, although the Japs are militaristic and pretty aggressive. But during the expansion phase, they build offensive units very very seldom.

We should use this chance now. Later will be too late.

[notyoueither]

Good opening post. Discussing ideas is good. However, I believe that Sir Ralph has exposed most to the weaknesses of a cultural approach given our current position.

The biggest problem with a cultural approach in our situation is production. We are limited to a maximum of 3 small, productive cities for the short term. They are simply not enough to pull off a REX and cultural strategy.

re Forces. Case Pink calls for 6 archers with good protection to take the enemy capitol. 6 Vets against 2 Regular spear fortified is as guaranteed as we can get. To wait for 8 or 10 archers would take too long. As it is, both the French and the Americans should be at 4 or 5 cities each by the proposed DDay. If we wait longer, they will be larger and less inclined to surrender due to the loss of the capitol and 2nd city. They will also be more likely to have swordsmen or horse with with to repel us the longer we wait.

As far as additional forces are concerned, By the time the last archer and spear join the main force for the attack, we can complete 3 or 4 additional archers or spear from the 4 proposed cities. I believe we should plan on these being garrison spearmen. That way, we can deter other civs from attacking us and we can defend ourselves against the civ we do not attack in the event of an alliance against us.

As far as reinforcements are concerned, Case Pink urges the construction of a road through the jungle towards the front. We will need the road for 2 reasons. We need it to speed the movement of troops to and from the front as well as to speed the supply of luxeries and strategic goods to our core from the conquests.

Our options are thus, if we do not win with the initial wave we are lost. If we wait too long to build a larger initial wave we are more likely lost. If we eschew war and follow a builder path we are certainly lost.

The likelihood of the assault on the enemy capitol failing with 6 archers against 2 spear is very small. Therefore I believe that the original plan is still the best proposal before us.

Some civ delenda est!

[Kuciwalker]

If we attack, we have a chance of losing.

If we do not attack, we have a FAR GREATER chance of losing.

Which would you prefer?

[notyoueither]

Excellent summary skywalker.

[Kuciwalker]

I prefer writing brief responses rather than long ones. It takes far less time.

[Trevman]

We were screwed from Turn 1. Since we are bottled in by no less then three civs now, expansion is no longer an option. Yes, Case Pink may not succeed but unfortunately it is our best option. As it is we are playing a losing game; we need to take a risk in order to win.

[Jon Shafer]

Well, as it turns out, the jungle is far more massive than I ever feared. Even the productive land France sits on is dwarfed by the size of the jungle, and there's not much there between the mountains and the jungle. America's position may be even worse, but we'll have to see what's to the north of the jungle. By the time we get a settler out, no doubt all of the land to our west will be settled by France.

[Kuciwalker]

What we need are nukes... LOTS of them. big areas of jungle become polluted grassland, which, IMNSHO, is better than jungle. It takes less time to clean pollution than to clear jungle, right?

[Vlad Antlerkov]

Skywalker: It takes 24 turns to clean pollution. Jungle takes 16 turns to clear.

[notyoueither]

12 I think, with Industrious.

[Spiffor]

Clearing the jungle will take much less time than researching nukes.

[notyoueither]

I have heard wild tales of some Greek proposing the existence of these things called 'atoms'. Who knows, maybe they will develop nukes very soon and if we contact them they will sell us the technology.

I wouldn't count on it though. All wise cats know that the 4 elements make up everything in the world. I don't see what use Jupiter would have for 'atoms'.

[jdjdjd]

Originally posted by GodKing
Ya, 6 unhurt, veteran archers. But when you only have 8 or so to begin with, and only 2 in reserve, with little or no road system to get future reserves to the front quickly, then after the first 2 cities fall you either a) have to pause and continue to wait for your reinforcements (at which point they probably have counterattacked and seriously hurt your main force) b) attack while weakened (and pray to the great banana) or c) make peace without any significant victory, only a couple of raized cities that will soon be repopulated.

I have urged caution from early on. I do agree that we will have to get some land and some cities outside of this cursed jungle and soon if we are to have a chance. And the best way to do that is through war. I just am not sure that this is the best way. Hard and fast is good, if we are lucky. If only 1/2 lucky or even if the great bananna shows his disfavor and sends his taranchulas after us, we are screwed. Just go into DOS and type in FORMAT C: and hit y to all the following promps.

Oh, jdjdjd, I may soon join you on the run from the imperial guard. I fear that when I tried to run for office without joining one of the parties, some of the servant monkeys may have taken offence. If so, I shall send my pet kitty cat out to let you know that I am comming and to arrange a meeting - perhaps one of the mountains to the west. Although I still have hope that I shall not have to run, I am in the process of making preperations. Let me know if there is anything you may need, some good tariaki bat meet jerky or some banana flour for making fresh banana bread. Your reports are most interesting.

GodKing

Given that I am outmanned, outnumbered, outwitted, outsmarted, outknowledged, out...well out everything. I continue my jouney, and will sail for the Mountain Plains.

My adversaries in this discussion are well-informed and have matters in control, I only hope they use discretion and keep the best ideals in mind, as well as what is best for the people.

Godking, I will keep an open for the kitty. I hope I see you in the Mountains, I hope to get a good view of the coming war. Please bring the jerkey you mention as well as nylons and chocolates, I hope to visit France and understand the French women will do anything for these items. I must hurry though, I want to get to France while it still exists.

A man of means by no means....

jdjdjd