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Kurds
Originally posted by Fresno
About the Kurds; what I meant is that when a war breaks out the first what Saddam will do is conquering the autonomous Kurdish zone in northern Iraq. And because of all his crimes against this people I'm affraid it would only harm the Kurds, not help them.
Plus the Kurds are under US and British air cover. (Combat Air Patrol (CAP)) Saddam's airforce tried once to counter that and now have over 250 fewer planes. (Not counting the ones that flew to Iran).
Helicopters are the best tool for the terrain but cannot be used because of the CAP.
Same for the Shiite muslims in the south near Kuwait. (Southern no fly zone). No what terrifies the US and all its neighbors is Saddam knowing that the end is near, and all that waits for him is death, will lash out with his remaining weapons of mass destruction. This could include setting off a nuke in Bahgdad. A kind of if I can't keep my country, neither can you.
Most of the equipment he bought from Europe and Asia to build a nuke has never been found. Various intelligence agencies believe that if Saddam has built a nuke (and it is not hard once you have the U238 or P235) he does not have the equipment to miniturize it enough to put on a missile (this is the hard part) and therefore it is too large to move except on a truck. This large and probably dirty weapon could not be used as a tactical weapon but it could be used as a weapon of last result.
Even if Saddam doesn't have a nuke, he has several thousand tons (yes thousands) of VX, Mustard gases as well as hundreds of tons of antharax, botulism, and probably small pox.
A senario would be him tipping a scud with small pox or VX, and shooting it into Israeli airspace. It would be shot down, but the war head would break apart on impact scattering its dealy cargo.
Small Pox is the deadliest of all the above agents. As the US saw, anthrax can be treated by antibiotics. A nuke can be survived. Botulism can be treated, so can mustard gas (although you lead a tortured life afterwards.) In 1999 the US government launched a test (Dark Winter) where they "inflicted" 3 people (1 person in three different states) with small pox, in order to test the readiness of the US to battle a biological attack. 13 days later they had to cancel the test because it had spun out of control. The final tally was infection in 25 states and 15 countries. They refused to release the number of "deaths" but it estimated to be in the millions. This is the reason Saddam is still alive.KATN
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