Surprise attack bonus

[Baron O]

dr spike

so you are statisical junkie, like us lay folks

[Ming]

Yeah... now it's time to figure out exactly what the bonus is. But good show guys... Thanks rah and barano...

[Baron O]

rah

we need to introduce dr spike to baseball, for the stats he would pop his cookie, with the varieity and utter sheer weight of those #'s

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by Baron O
dr spike

so you are statisical junkie, like us lay folks

Hehe. Who would have thought techniques I teach for their application to the testing of competing economic models could be used for something far more important like civ?

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by Baron O
rah

we need to introduce dr spike to baseball, for the stats he would pop his cookie, with the varieity and utter sheer weight of those #'s

Baseball is not that big in the UK at all I'm afraid. I have to have some interest to apply my methods to problems on a Sunday afternoon of all times, so I don't think I'll be analysing baseball stats anytime soon.

[War4ever]

spike here is your first line to learn about baseball

9 3 1 1 20 0 6 important digits....

this game is the first time a pitcher struck out 20 batters in a 9 inning game...

stats are as follows

9 innings pitched
3 hits allowed
1 runs allowed
1 earned runs/HR...depends on which stats book your reading , or if your looking at a boxscore in the paper
20 is the # of k's (strikeouts) in the game
0 is the walk total...

pretty impressive stats....since this time roger has done it again, 10 years later, and then kerry wood, and randy johnson have done it as well

i love stats....can quote baseball stats with the best of them.....

any questions just ask

[Alexander's Horse]

Good work guys

I'm glad I asked.

But would the same principle apply with later units?

[Baron O]

ah

i think it would, we did test with the units most likely to encounter each other early in game.

i remember a game against war where i attacked city on surpise with a horse ended up taking city. he had a fortified unit in city on river.

[Alexander's Horse]

The implication of this would be save your surprise bonus for a special attack if you can - like seaborne attack on capital of enemy civ.

[Scouse Gits]

Doc - doesn't the 'established fact' that civ uses integer arithmetic on eighths simplify your sums somewhat - which is more likely given the results a bonus of <= 0.875 or >= 1?
Or am I just muddying the already murky waters?

SG[1]

Rah - Baron O well done and thank you

[Ming]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
The implication of this would be save your surprise bonus for a special attack if you can - like seaborne attack on capital of enemy civ.

While you may want to save it for a special attack...
I think the real implication is that you want to take the surprise attack bonus FIRST, so that you are the one that gets it, and not your opponent. In many of our games, the first time you meet an opponent, you attack. That way, you get the advantage, and it's now over with. (unless you make peace with somebody) You don't want you opponent to have it. When somebody you haven't met ends a turn next to one of your cities early in the game, it's sometimes better to attack out, even if you only have a single defensive unit. Because if it's a one size city, it's very likely the city will be destroyed anyway if the surprise bonus is used against you. Also... if you see a unit end one square away from your city, and you know it will be a close battle under normal circumstances, you might want to move a warrior or other cheap unit out of the city, hoping he attacks it... and then using up the surprise bonus. That way, when he does locate the city, the battle will be a close one, instead of him still having the surprise bonus for the more important attack.

While many people in this thread never knew about the surprise bonus, or didn't believe it existed because they didn't play much MP... Almost every MP'er in our group already knew about it and planned accordingly. It's nice to see that it is now "proved" and all we really need to see is what that actual value is... but we have already seen what the implications are... since we knew about it already

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by Scouse Gits
Doc - doesn't the 'established fact' that civ uses integer arithmetic on eighths simplify your sums somewhat - which is more likely given the results a bonus of <= 0.875 or >= 1?
Or am I just muddying the already murky waters?

SG[1]

Rah - Baron O well done and thank you

Well you know SG I did think about this a lot.......and I'm not sure. If the program does indeed only use a bonus of either 87.5% or 100% it makes things easier for sure....but IIRC the combat thread didn't seem certain on this.

[rah]

Yes, as ming said, it's not as important to get it as it is to deny it to your oponent when it could really hurt you. People new to the group always thought us a bit bloodthirsty since as soon as units meets, the first to have the opportunity to attack would. They would assume we're all war crazy not realizing that we're just trying to clear the surprise bonus. We've obviously known about it for years. Now there's a little proof. And a little more testing should tell us just how much.

RAH

[-Jrabbit]

rah and Baron O -- Well done!

Great to see the obvious confirmed and (nearly) quantified.

[Ming]

But rah... many of the group are warmongers