MY-2198 - Planning and Execution Thread

[Zeiter]

Originally posted by Googlie
Hmm - we could sail the IoD wioth the 2 elite longstriders right up to 24:26 and then kill off the defensive probes and mind control Choke for 837 credits, with either mp's that are left, or with the Disco Volante

At one fell swoop we'd have half their airforce and some pretty stout defenders

What?! Only 850+ credits? How is that possible? Oh man, if we could mind control Choke on This, that would be ten times better than emptying it, even! How sure are you that it would cost such a sum? And that's assuming the Morganites stick with knowledge, right?

Edit: So, you're saying, sail the IoD to (18,30) this turn?

Another Edit: If need be, if we needed to raise some cash last-minute, we could sell off all our rec commons, for instance (since we'd be getting the HGP anyway, it would work out fine, and it would net us 220 ECs!

Triple Edit: If we were to be frugal with our money this turn, earn 200+ credits next turn, and cashed the rec commons, we'd have 1250+ ECs. I'm sure that would cover the mind control costs for Choke on This.

[Googlie]

plus, we could sell the creches for those bases that are maxxed out at 16, as it's unlikely we'll need the defensive bonuses they provide.

Plus there's an energy bank somewhere (one of lal's bases) worth 40 credits that we could cash in too

I'll tinker with the sim to see if the costs drop after a change from knowledge (enemy probe actions are cheaper when we run knowledge - I don't know if ours are more expensive at knowledge than at any other choice, and the datalinks are weak on this)

Presumably knowledge attacking knowledge is even-up, but if we shift to power, then we should get the -50% applied to them when we probe - so it might even be cheaper than 837 (that's what I meant when I said I'd work the sim to see what the result would be)

[Zeiter]

Ah, but one must also consider that:
1. Creches also give efficiency and morale bonuses (which would be good to keep).
2. I don't think it's possible to scrap more than one type of facility in a single turn.

As far as I know, us running knowledge has no effect on our probe costs. It would only make it cost half as much for enemy probe teams to take action against us...I think. What will make or break the mind controlling plan on Choke on This will be if the Morganites are still running knowledge (making our probe actions cost -50%) or if they switch to wealth next turn...although...I wonder when the SE change would come into effect. (Just as morale changes take one turn to come into effect, is it the same way with probe rating changes? Meaning, even if the Morganites changed to wealth next turn, would they still have the probe costs for that turn as if they were still running knowledge?)

Edit: As a side note, we'll get an extra 27 minerals of production this turn when we switch to power (which certainly doesn't make up for the industry hit, but still, it's something). Now, what would really boost our mineral production would be switching to PS in addition to power, giving us support free UP TO BASE SIZE! Maybe after we get the cloning vats and we can run power without penalties...which reminds me, we haven't talked about which tech choice we'll pick next year. I presume it will be biomachinery, no?

[Zeiter]

Other things to consider:

*The Morganite income for MY 2200 (when they would have to upgrade their air fleet and try to make a counter-attack) will be severely lessened if we can manage to capture the PEG in MY 2199.
*Choke on This will go into unstoppable riots when we capture the HGP, reducing the effective morale of all of the aircraft supported at that base for those turns.

[Snoddasmannen]

Originally posted by Googlie
Hmm - we could sail the IoD wioth the 2 elite longstriders right up to 24:26 and then kill off the defensive probes and mind control Choke for 837 credits, with either mp's that are left, or with the Disco Volante

At one fell swoop we'd have half their airforce and some pretty stout defenders

We could even do that this turn. Move the IoD to 24,26 and get the probe teams to CoT through the road system. We will get a fair deal of cash by flaming those aliens near Arcadia Regional Command (so maybe we don't need to sell a bunch of infrastructure to afford the probe).

This means that the attack could start this turn, though our land units really wouldn't be able to join until next turn. But we would steal 5 noodles and 3 fusion chaos choppers. Isn't that worth it?

Can we guarantee that our probies will be successful? It looks like a pretty minor edge in combat odds.

[Snoddasmannen]

If we did it this turn, the fighters currently flying CAP over the SATF can land in CoT to defend. Though I just closed SMAC so I can't see if they have enough MPs ...

[Snoddasmannen]

And continuing on the "attack right now" state of mind, maybe we should secure a beachhead on both the other fronts too, or the Morgans could obliterate some bases. This would leave us a bit isolated and slowed down.

By the way wouldn't you all just love the carnage we could cause this turn with the mind controlled choppers in CoT? Think of all those Morgan inland crawlers and formers ... Yummy!

[vishniac]

Always a pleasure to follow your moves, folks!

Alas, I can't contribute much but Turn 2197 was beautiful.
I just passed by...to say not to sell too much infrastructure.

[Zeiter]

Hmmm, but I am leary about trying to mind control Choke on This this turn. If the mind control were to not succeed, we'd be left with no gains and already in vendetta with the Morganites. They would then get a whole turn to prepare their defenses. Not good. But next turn, I think we should definitely consider the mind control option.

Edit: We won't be selling any infrastructure this turn. We may only sell some next turn if we need just a few more ECs to put us over the top as far as mind controlling Choke on This, but hopefully we won't need it.

[Snoddasmannen]

I agree that trying the mind control and failing would be a disaster.

So let's see what it takes to succeed the mind control. We need to take out two probe teams and still have one dude with at least 1/3 mp left to do the actual MC:ing (which always succeeds, right?). Well, we have two probe teams that would have 1+2/3 mp left when they get to the city, and the Disco Volante which will always get exactly one attack on the base. Our guys are elite, theirs are veterans.

All goes according to plan: We take out two defenders and mind control with either a third unit or with the remaining MP:s of one of those units. Voila, we've got them.

We lose one fight: Disco Volante kills his enemy, but our second probe team fails and only damages his adversary. We still have one fully healed unit which can take him out. Hopefully, he will not suffer too much damage doing this, and so have 2/3 mp left, enough to do a MC.

We lose two fights: So the first and second probe teams both fail. The MC maneuvre fails.

There are some Right? stuff in here which we need to answer. Anyway, if we can get decent percentages to match these scenarios, we can figure out the best thing to do.

EDIT: By the way, we won't be formally at war with Morgan if we fail. Probe to probe attacks do not count as declarations of war. Though of course they will suspect that we are up to something ...

I think a neat way to do this would be to attack with the Volante first. If we do not at least badly damage a defender (we have good odds to kill it) we should give up on our plans. If the Volante makes it, then odds are great that the remaining two probe teams will take out the remaining defender and mc the base. If the Volante badly damages the opponent, we still have good odds.

[Googlie]

Originally posted by Snoddasmannen
I agree that trying the mind control and failing would be a disaster.

I agree - It has to be "Shock and Awe" - mind control the base, and capture six or seven other bases in the same turn

So let's see what it takes to succeed the mind control. We need to take out two probe teams and still have one dude with at least 1/3 mp left to do the actual MC:ing (which always succeeds, right?).

Yes - assuming we have the necessary credits, the success percentage for total mind control is 100%

Well, we have two probe teams that would have 1+2/3 mp left when they get to the city, and the Disco Volante which will always get exactly one attack on the base. Our guys are elite, theirs are veterans.

Correct - odds are 7 to 6 or 6 to 5, per the sim I rustled up

All goes according to plan: We take out two defenders and mind control with either a third unit or with the remaining MP's of one of those units. Voila, we've got them.

We lose one fight: Disco Volante kills his enemy, but our second probe team fails and only damages his adversary. We still have one fully healed unit which can take him out. Hopefully, he will not suffer too much damage doing this, and so have 2/3 mp left, enough to do a MC.

We lose two fights: So the first and second probe teams both fail. The MC maneuvre fails.

There are some Right? stuff in here which we need to answer. Anyway, if we can get decent percentages to match these scenarios, we can figure out the best thing to do.

EDIT: By the way, we won't be formally at war with Morgan if we fail. Probe to probe attacks do not count as declarations of war. Though of course they will suspect that we are up to something ...

That's right - the Gaians only declare Vendetta after we successfully mind control the base - and per the rules, we don't need to choose the vendetta option on a failed probe mission (indeed, we aren't even given the choice)

I think a neat way to do this would be to attack with the Volante first. If we do not at least badly damage a defender (we have good odds to kill it) we should give up on our plans. If the Volante makes it, then odds are great that the remaining two probe teams will take out the remaining defender and mc the base. If the Volante badly damages the opponent, we still have good odds.

I agree - if the Disco Volante succeeds in eliminating the first of their probe defenders, I think that we are home and dry. If it fails, we can just go for the conventional kill

[Snoddasmannen]

Originally posted by Googlie
Correct - odds are 7 to 6 or 6 to 5, per the sim I rustled up

Why the two different odds? Aren't all battles elite vs. veteran? Anyway, an elite vs. veteran gives a 65% chance of winning, according to my combat sim:

http://www2.onyx.nu/pb/alpha/AlphaBattle.htm

Do I understand you correctly Googlie, are you going with Zeiter here and not suggesting to attempt an MC this turn? Wait til next turn to do this?

If so, we need to settle the very difficult question of what to do with the SATF... If we do it according to Zeiter suggestions, hiding up north, out of reach of the morgan noodlers, then we might not be able to do so much invading next turn on the southern front. But on the other hand, as long as we neutralize their air force, I don't think they can possibly recover. The suggested mind control mission will accomplish this, hopefully ...

We might get away with positioning the transport, making it appear to head to the Hive. But we might not, and it is a great risk... EDIT: Whoops, didn't read your post there Zeiter I think I am with Zeiter here, it is simply too risky.

[Googlie]

Originally posted by Snoddasmannen

Why the two different odds? Aren't all battles elite vs. veteran? Anyway, an elite vs. veteran gives a 65% chance of winning, according to my combat sim:

I got different odds with different iterations - but I also changed to Fundy in one - that may have accounted for one of the sets

Do I understand you correctly Googlie, are you going with Zeiter here and not suggesting to attempt an MC this turn? Wait til next turn to do this?

I'm ambivalent (see later in this post)- waiting lets us bomb and paradrop into the 2 westcoast bases as well as take Choke and spread from there to possibly the 2 or 3 adjacent bases as well (bombing first then use those 3 units they have there), plus the attack on Vander Eudaimonics and neighbouring bases.

If we time it right - and get the favourable probe battle odds, we could take maybe ten bases in one turn - that'd be awesome

If so, we need to settle the very difficult question of what to do with the SATF... If we do it according to Zeiter suggestions, hiding up north, out of reach of the morgan noodlers, then we might not be able to do so much invading next turn on the southern front. But on the other hand, as long as we neutralize their air force, I don't think they can possibly recover. The suggested mind control mission will accomplish this, hopefully ...

We might get away with positioning the transport, making it appear to head to the Hive. But we might not, and it is a great risk... EDIT: Whoops, didn't read your post there Zeiter I think I am with Zeiter here, it is simply too risky.

Of their airforce of 13 units, seven are in Choke:

• 2 Chaos Penetrators, both at Choke
• 3 Chaos choppers, all at Choke
• 2 Missile tacticals, in Choke
• 1 Missile tactical in Vander
• 1 Missile Tactical in Chaunk Curry
• 3 Missile tacticals in the air
• There is also 1 trained Chaos Penetrator, in the air

If we took Choke and Vander this turn, there's nothing that could touch us without kamikazi-ing

So let's thrash this one out fully before we quit on the idea

[Zeiter]

Yes, there wouldn't really be the danger of a damaging counterattack. The only problems I see would be:
1. If the path to Choke on This is blocked, then our IoD will be stranded near the Morgan coasts this turn.
2. We won't be able to progress very far on the Laconian front this turn. The LTF could sail up to (but not into) Vander, capture the city, and MAYBE take another city or so, but that's it. meanwhile, the Morganites could cut the road link to Vander, slowing down our progress on that front for the next turn.
3. We won't be able to use our NATF troops this turn.
4. The SATF could, at best, proceed to City of ZZT or Hindenburg Habitat.
5. The Morganites would have an additional turn of preparation before the main assault.
6. The Morganites could self-destruct several key bases that I would really like to snag (Impaler Poly with the HGP and Scorpi Ski Resort with the PEG, for instance).

However, if everyone else deems these problems surmountable and not crippling, then I suppose we could proceed with the mind control operation this turn. But the way I see it, if this plan will work this turn, surely it will work just as well next turn (assuming the Morganites don't switch out of knowledge, but even then it may still work). And next turn it would be synchronized with the main assault.

But I am open to the possibility of it happening this turn.

I think that we should try to reach an agreement on this soon. It would not be good to have to ask for a time extension and give the others hints that something big is about to go down.

Edit: Here's another option: go with the mind control on Choke on This this turn, but hold all the other forces back. The Morganites will direct all their attention during the subsequent turn trying to take back Choke on This (although it's still unlikely they would be able to recapture it that subsequent turn, so well manned is that city). Then, the next turn we can hit the Morganites with the REAL assault where they least expect it. Furthermore, it's likely that the Morganites could interpret the move as surgical mischief, and not as the prelude to an overwhelming assault, although either way the Morganites are likely to go immediately into total war production mode.

Further edit: In addition, if we go with just the mind conrtrol, the Morganites will be less likely to forsake their cities by self-destructing them. They may interpret this move of ours as a ploy to try to get them to do what the Angels so stupidly did to themselves, and thus they won't take the bait--meaning, they will not self-destruct their HGP and PEG cities. Although it is possible that they would self-destruct Vander Eudaimonics or cut its access road to the rest of the continent as a safety maneuver, which would make our progress on the Laconian front abomidable. So really, the idea of just mind controlling Choke on This probably isn't so good after all.

[Snoddasmannen]

It's a tough call ... The attack will be so much better synchronized if we wait one turn. But this is such an opportunity. I can't come up with any viable tactical tricks.

There's the off chance we could kill one of the probies by conventional attack, it is 1-2 so probably second defender after their plasma unit. We can suicide our two fighters in the SA theater to knock them both out, and the F-8 on 45, 25 is also within range. Unfortunately we need to scramble away their fighters in the base first. They have 3 there now, if we can scare away 2 of them, it will be enough to kill that prober. But I can't really see any way to do that ... And besides it a) makes the target less juicy (has less units in it) and it sacrifices some of our fighters.