MY 2166 Planning thread

[Googlie]

Why don't we drop the R-112 off on the monolith on the shore just east of Huddling? It'll heal to 100%, and as the Hive next plays its turn in 2166, if they sneak- attack it. the R-112 can leap back aboard the Pegasus as it'll have its full movement points next turn.

What to put into production at Minas Tirith (in the event that we get a completion podpop with the Heimdall?)

And same question for whatever base the Disco Volante is closest to* (for when it pops those juicy pods south of Angels' land)

*I'm thinking 2Nuts Strand, although Iaca base might be as close

[Googlie]

Now we can send our elite probe to incite drone riots, and frame Morgan (parallel turn simulation activated to see how the game engine deals with this probe action - ie given the discussions in the general forum, does it work in PBEMs or not - it works!!)

p.s. Note our reputation (Integrity), below!!!

[Maniac]

Re: MY 2166 Planning thread

Originally posted by Googlie
Why don't we drop the R-112 off on the monolith on the shore just east of Huddling? It'll heal to 100%, and as the Hive next plays its turn in 2166, if they sneak- attack it. the R-112 can leap back aboard the Pegasus as it'll have its full movement points next turn.

Sounds great! AFAIK units can't retreat on transports though.

What to put into production at Minas Tirith (in the event that we get a completion podpop with the Heimdall?)

Choice is between an über-military or probe unit, or a fungal gin freight (for our next SP: Plan Datalinks or Ascetic Virtues I guess) I assume?

And same question for whatever base the Disco Volante is closest to* (for when it pops those juicy pods south of Angels' land)

*I'm thinking 2Nuts Strand, although Iaca base might be as close

IIRC it was Iaci Base, but it's easy to retest with the simulator.

Now we can send our elite probe to incite drone riots, and frame Morgan (parallel turn simulation activated to see how the game engine deals with this probe action - ie given the discussions in the general forum, does it work in PBEMs or not - it works!!)

Yeah, I discovered it only works when you aren't at war with the faction you probe.
So, do we want to go ahead with it?
IIRC, for an elite probe the chance for success is 50%. And we don't have a second chance, as being discovered would make Yang redeclare war on us.

Fifty % chance Morgan is at war with Yang the rest of the game, 50% chance we are at war with Yang the rest of the game...*

* At least IIRC if you unsuccesfully frame someone, the two factions involved are really pissed off at you, to the point of fighting to the death. Or would it be possible to sign a truce by once again capturing a base, and then repeat the method we used this turn? Can't recall... Too long ago I tried this.

[Googlie]

Re: Re: MY 2166 Planning thread

Originally posted by Maniac
AFAIK units can't retreat on transports though.

I dunno - I known they can't retreat onto Unity seed pods - even on Automatic i dunno if they'd have the sense to retreat onto the trannie (or maybe fight back)

Choice is between an über-military or probe unit, or a fungal gin freight (for our next SP: Plan Datalinks or Ascetic Virtues I guess) I assume?

I'd go for the FGF

Yeah, I discovered it only works when you aren't at war with the faction you probe.
So, do we want to go ahead with it?
IIRC, for an elite probe the chance for success is 50%. And we don't have a second chance, as being discovered would make Yang redeclare war on us.

Fifty % chance Morgan is at war with Yang the rest of the game, 50% chance we are at war with Yang the rest of the game...*

Actually it's 75% chance of succeeding in the frame-up with a 67% chance of surviving it (seee below)

* At least IIRC if you unsuccesfully frame someone, the two factions involved are really pissed off at you, to the point of fighting to the death. Or would it be possible to sign a truce by once again capturing a base, and then repeat the method we used this turn? Can't recall... Too long ago I tried this.

I think that the base-capture/exchange for a truce works many times, but I'm not sanguine about getting moire than a handful of turns of peace with Yang as it is right now (unless we changed to POLICE, and got him to agree on joint battle plans against the Gaians - or Morgan if the frame-up is successful

My CRYPTEIA division is rarin' to go - the upside is that we get yang and Morgan in Vendetta, the downside is that we are no worse off than we were at the beginning of this turn

[Googlie]

LOL - we could even frame the Angels!!

[Maniac]

Re: Re: Re: MY 2166 Planning thread

Originally posted by Googlie
I'd go for the FGF

Actually it's 75% chance of succeeding in the frame-up with a 67% chance of surviving it (seee below)

***Edit: Disregard the remainer of this post.***

I thought this too until a week ago or so. But when I was testing in the simulator whether framing would work, the chance of success seemed much lower than what I thought they should have been. So I decided to do a bit more extensive and systematic testing: trying to frame Morgan, 20 times with an elite probe, 20 times with a commando probe. The results matched the following "theory" very well:

The first percentage you see is the chance the probe action will succeed in its mission. The second percentage you see is the chance the probe will survive the mission (not get captured) provided it has succeeded in fulfilling its mission.

For a frame operation to be succesful, a probe needs to survive its mission, not get captured.

To make these words a little more clear, let's give a concrete example: the "75%, 67%" we're dealing with here.

The chance for success is 75%, so the chance for complete failure 25% =>

The probe will in one quarter of the cases fail to incite drone riots, and will be captured.

The chance for success is 75%, and the chance to survive the mission is 67% of 75, 50 in other words =>

The probe will in one half of the cases incite drone riots, and manage to escape unnoticed, thus succeeding in framing the Corporation.

However in 33% of the cases when the "incite drone riots" mission succeeds, the probe will still get captured =>

The probe will in one quarter of the cases succeed in inciting drone riots, but will get captured after fulfulling its mission, meaning the Hive will know we're responsible, and the framing operation will have failed.

[Maniac]

I just remembered all these tests were done while I was in vendetta with Yang. Meaning I don't know whether being captured equals failure of the framing. Meaning you could be right Googlie: 75% chance for success of the framing operation, and 50% chance to survive the mission (67% of 75).

Respect for our Crypteia btw... Them being captured and interrogated, yet still maintaining the story that they're Morganic probes, despite all the tortures to get the truth out of them.

[Googlie]

Originally posted by Maniac

Respect for our Crypteia btw... Them being captured and interrogated, yet still maintaining the story that they're Morganic probes, despite all the tortures to get the truth out of them.

Anderson slumped in his chair and looked wearily at the Hive interrogator. Numbly he shook his head;

“What I say is true. I am Chester Anderson, an electronic salesman attached to Morgan Eudaimonics, and I am here visiting my local sales staff in Socialism Tunnels. As you know, this is the major entry point for our goods and services into Hiverian lands.”

The Hive agent looked at him sadly, then cracked a smile. “Bring in Angelica. She’ll wrest the truth out of him. Get him ready”

Two acolytes moved in and began unpacking a case that to Anderson looked like nothing more than wires and receptor nodes. He blanched, as the significance of what was happening sank into his consciousness. Nodes were connected to his skull, and wires attached, then hitched to a small generator in the case.

The door swung open, and Anderson looked up at the most beautiful woman he had laid eyes on. She fixed her eyes on his, and there he saw an implacable hatred in their depths.

Anderson looked up at her out of bloodshot eyes and whimpered:

“I’ve told you everything – and nothing but the truth. Why do you persist in this torture?”

Angelica grunted, and with a wave of her hand dismissed the acolytes.

“Lisa has confessed everything,” she said. “You are a Spartan covert operations agent, code-named Ajax. Your mission here was to incite drone riots and compromise the Morgan faction, thereby inducing our chairman to declare vendetta on the CEO. Whether you want to or not, you will reveal the truth and won’t be able to help yourself. Because I am going into your mind.”

Anderson shuddered. He had heard tale of those hive telepaths, and of one whose brutality matched her beauty and intelligence – Angelica.

Her watched, fascinated, as she drew the long metallic-sheened gloves over her hands, flexing the fingers to let the contact nodes settle on her fingertips and gently scratching the sensor-tipped nails across the control pad in front of her.

He flinched as she flipped the contact switch, then felt the filaments snake into his cerebral cortex, seeking out the interstices within his neural network, and attaching themselves to entry points.

“Ready, darling?” breathed Angelica, fitting the sensor helmet to her own head.

Anderson slumped, preparing for the inevitable denouement.

“Name?” she asked.

Chester Anderson

She hesitated. This was probably true.

“Why are you in Socialism Tunnels?”

I’ve told you. I’m a sales manager here to meet my local sales staff

Angelica tapped her gloves together, then drew one lightly across his bared chest, the diamond tips searing across his flesh and opening up scars that seeped blood.

Suddenly Chester felt his ribcage constricting, cutting off his breathing, as he struggled to gasp for air.

“Wrong, darling. You are a Spartan covert operations agent codenamed Ajax, are you not?”

No he wheezed. I am a Morganite sales representative

“Well, then,” she continued, “you’ll tell me who Lisa is and why you are consorting with a self-confessed Spartan probe operative”

We met in a bar – spent the night together he croaked.

Angelica dragged the glove across his flesh again, and Anderson struggled for breath as his chest constricted still more.

“One more time and you die of self-suffocation, you know. It’s all in your mind, and I can tell when you’re lying. I am in your mind now, and but for your training in erecting neural defenses, I could see who you really are. You now have the choice of lowering your neural barriers or perhaps dying when I force them – and is it worth dying for – if you really are the salesman you say you are?”

Anderson sighed, then relaxed:

Go on then – you have access and lowered his neural defences.

Angelica activated a small commlink on her wrist and intoned:

“I am in his mind now, and he is open and defenceless. He is a Second Lieutenant in the Morgan Covert Operations Corps, code-named Lucius. His real name is indeed Chester Anderson. Lisa is his accomplice, code named Diva. Their mission was to incite drone riots in Socialism Tunnels and frame the Peacekeepers to try and draw Hive attention from their pactmates, the Gaians. The data confirm that this is correct.”

She leaned forward and disconnected the probes and sensors, and took off her gloves. Lightly stroking his face, she said:

“Now that wasn’t too hard, was it?”

She rose, and left the room, leaving Anderson slumped numbly in his chair.

*************************************************

As they turned away from the one-way glass, Colonel Maniac looked over at Colonel Googlie:

“Good work. He really does believe that he is a Morgan agent. He’ll survive the real Angelica’s probing. You won’t forget to have the ship’s captain run up the Morgan flag when he comes on deck for the insertion onto Hive lands?”

“Taken care of,” replied Googlie. “Crew will have Morgan uniforms, and thanks to pilfering Mr. Moneypenny’s wallet those years ago, a crewmember will even slip him some Morgan vouchers and ask for a Hive trinket to be brought back.. All to substantiate the myth that he is a Morgan agent”

“Sounds like it can’t fail, then” grinned Maniac. “In a few days Morgan will have one less friend on Chiron, and might find his new defenders facing not only our elite troops and aircraft, but also those of the redoubtable Chairman as well”

[Modo44]

One idea about the builds for supposed completions. Let us do the probing of Yang first (I am in favor, along with framing Morgan.), and only then choose. If we manage to frame Morgan, I have no real preference there, although a super-noodle might be nice (If there is such a thing...). If we go back to war with Yang, I would say we need another super-attacker to go and kick the Hive in the guts.

[Maniac]

Cool story about the framing.

However I fear I have some good and some bad news regarding it...

I'll start with the bad news.

The bad news is this story can't become reality as far as I can tell. I did a few tests, this time while in a truce with Yang, and I appear to be correct after all: being captured does equal failure of the framing attempt. Meaning chance for success would be 50% after all.

Now a piece of good news. If the framing operation succeeds, in the scenario menu Yang gets the "I want revenge" box clicked on for their faction diplomacy with the Corporation. But when the framing operation fails, we're of course at vendetta with Yang, but he doesn't want revenge or anything like that. So I assume we wouldn't necessarily be in a permanent vendetta for the rest of the game.

What's the exact effect of "I want revenge" btw?

[Googlie]

In CMN set-ups, as far as I can deduce, the "I want revenge" simply means that he'll be an active belligerent - seeking out the other faction - rather than just passive.

I think it also has the effect of souring him towards pactmates of the other faction as well. Unless the flag is set to "till the death". then it's not unbreakable, and diplomacy, SE choices and the occasional gift can turn him around.

But I think it's worth the gamble. if it succeeds, then we've scored a huge diplomatic coup (and Yang has troops right beside the new Morgan base - he might strike before they can be mind controlled.)

And if we fail, we're no worse off (well, minus a longstrider - that's replaceable) than we were at the beginning of this 2165 turn

The result of our machinations might be that we let yang fight Morgan and the gaians, while we and the Angels sit tight and grow fat. We might be able to buy 15 or 20 turns'worth of relative peace - well, we'll still, of course, harrass Morgan from the sea and the air - to let us get the makings of a popboom unddrway (creches, etc)

[Kassiopeia]

Yes, I agree that it's definitely worth it to give it a shot and try to frame Morgan. We'll have to be careful to keep all that great real estate in Hiveria from falling into enemy hands, though.

[Googlie]

Well, Morgan can't run much of an offensive campaign until they get clean reactors - or can build a punishment sphere in a mineral-rich base (unless, of course, they move off FM and Wealth - which they might do - turn Green, that is - to align more closely with the Gaians)

And now that their chokepoint has been cleared, the Gaians are going to have difficulty containing the Hive forces heading south

[Kassiopeia]

Can Morgan even turn Green? Or was it Power that was their aversion? Regardless, looks like the risk of losing the real estate would be smaller than I'd feared (and it is technically in enemy hands as it is).

[Googlie]

Originally posted by Kassiopeia
Can Morgan even turn Green? Or was it Power that was their aversion?

It's PLANNED that they can't run