2146: Pre-planning discusion and build/movement orders

[Googlie]

Getting ready - there are some podpopping decisions to be made next year (Hermes, Pegasus and Invincible, as well as the tagteam Warwag and Shinsengumi pod)

[Maniac]

Relevant data for podpopping results:

Unity rover, Pod on fungus

monolith: 12
native: 10
bloom: 6
river: 4
artifact: 3
forest: 3
25c: 3
75c: 2
materials: 2
50c: 1
farm: 1
tech: 1
mine: 1
commlink: 1
50

Unity foil, Pod on fungus

native: 12
materials: 9
kelp: 8
sonar: 5
artifact: 5
100c: 3
75c: 2
25c: 2
tech: 2
50c: 1
commlink: 1
50

Unity foil, Pod in trench

native: 20
artifact: 7
sonar: 6
materials: 5
75c: 4
50c: 3
commlink: 2
foil: 2
tech: 1
50

Gun foil, Pod on fungus

native: 14
kelp: 11
sonar: 10
commlink: 4
100c: 4
materials: 3
75c: 2
50c: 1
25c: 1
50

[Googlie]

Great recap

So, in percentage probaility terms, the likelihood of popping a negative event are:

Unity rover, Pod on fungus: 32% (20% ignoring fungal bloom)
Unity foil, Pod on fungus: 24%
Unity foil, Pod in trench: 40%
Gun foil, Pod on fungus: 28%

(all slightly higher as we already have everyone's commlink)

Based on these, I say we go for the Warwag-Shinsengumi tagteam podpop and the Invincible pop, but do nothing with the Pegasus (esp as there's a longstrider on board - and as well, it looks like Hunter will be able to break out of the fungus and head for a rendezvous next turn, although the pegasusnneds to empty its probe cargo before podpopping in case we do get an AA or a Unity Rover).

And tactically, we should tagteam pop with the Elite unit first, so that if a mindworm emerges, the Commando unit can kill it perhaps getting a morale upgrade to Elite in the process

Re: the Hermes - while the odds of a negative pop are the lowest, it depends on whether we think that's expendible with the imminency of cruiser transports. While popping an AA would be fabulous (taking pressure off our crawlers for the MCC build) it'd also be useful for taking a probe down to La-La Land for either infiltration or techsteal (or both, with 2 probes). And if it does transport the probes, it could continue and maybe extricate R-112 from its current situation. So I'd be in favor of not popping with the trannies for the time being (or trancing them, which, together with their being "disciplined" should ensure a survival, although damaging)

(As an aside, could we use this current bastardized save as a simulator to redo the odds on the four podpops we're contemplating?)

[Maniac]

I agree with your analysis.

(As an aside, could we use this current bastardized save as a simulator to redo the odds on the four podpops we're contemplating?)

I guess nothing's wrong with that.

[Maniac]

Oh yeah, I just remembered something I wanted to say.
If next MY 2146 we move SNC Pegasus to (45.17) to pick up the now veteran probe team, it'll take only two more years - until MY 2148 - to reach Morganite soil. However if we want to switch to Fundamentalist after researching DocIni to give us two probe morale boosts, we'd have to wait until MY 2149 to attempt the infiltration. So I'm wondering, in case we're switching to Fundy, what is the Pegasus gonna do with that extra year?

[Googlie]

Good point - even with it having to go into the fungus to pick up longstrider #2 it'd still be ready to infiltrate by 2148, the year we get Doc Init

(And IIRC the effects of a Socvial Engineering change don't take effect until the next turn)

Not sure I like the idea of it podpopping without Hunter nearby. Especially if it has 2 probes on board, as that limits the # favorable outcomes (no AA's Unity Rovers, Ogres, etc)

I'm 1/4 way thru calculating the odds, and so far they are - for Pegasus (13 cycles)-

4 mindworms
3 facilites completions (the colony pod, actually)
2 AAs
2 sonar buoys
1 x 50 ec's
1 x 25 ec's

I'm not keen on "wasting" a pod's potential goodies by popping with a full trannie, so maybe it just goes further north up the Morgan coastline for a turn - there might be a base there without a probe defender

[Googlie]

Here are the half-time results (25 iterations):

Unity rover, Pod on fungus

monolith: 6
native: 3
bloom: 1
artifact: 3
materials: 6
earthquake:3
Dimensional rift: 3
25

Unity foil, Pod on fungus

native: 3
materials: 3
kelp: 4
sonar: 1
artifact: 3
75c: 1
25c: 2
tech: 1
Tidal wave: 2
Unity foil: 1
Battle Ogre: 1
Unity Rover: 3
25

Unity foil, Pod in trench (1 probe team on board)

native: 5
artifact: 5
sonar: 3
materials: 4
75c: 1
50c: 1
25c: 1
Unity rover: 2
tidal wave: 2
Unity foil: 1
25

Gun foil, Pod on fungus

native: 4
kelp: 4
sonar: 6
100c: 1
75c: 1
50c: 1
25c: 1
tech: 2
tidal wave: 4
cloned gunfoil: 1
25

Noteworthy - in all instances of a naval vessel popping an IoD, the vessel was lost in the resulting battle.

Preliminary indications show that there is little danger in doing the tagteam podpop - the second rover in all instances can destroy either the resulting mindworm or sporelauncher, or even the fungal tower (1 instance)

Likewise, the Hermes popping the pod in teh fungus seems to have an 88% probability of producing something decent (even the tidal wave event gives us more of Zak's map), so I'd be in favor of that pop (but change Vladivostok's build to something worthwhile)

Pegasus I'm not sure about. If we drop off the probeteam first, then pop the pod, I'd have less objection, but it's still a 20% chance we'll lose Pegasus. That'll delay any Morgan infiltration for ten or so turns until we get another trannie (prolly a cruiser one) built. But with a 20% AA probability, a 16% facilities completion, and even an 8% Unity Rover are tempting odds, aren't they?

I'd give the podpop a miss with the Invincible. There's a 72 % probability that the pop won't help us (kelp, tidal, sonar, IoD's that destroy us ..............) so I'd just keep going south down the coastline with it.

G.

[Googlie]

Well, here is the second batch (in bold italics alongside the first results to show the differences, then the total for all 50 iterations)

Second batch I put a navy seals in the build at RG and Vlad, a Rec Commons at SectorCraterwest, and an Impact Speeder at Minas Tirith. Completions were up slightly (so I don't know if the act of putting something different in the build orders triggers a more sympathetic result from a podpop):

Unity rover, Pod on fungus (Warwag & Shinsengumi)

monolith:..... 6 ..... 3 ..... 9
native: .....3 ..........4 ..... 7
bloom:.... 1..........3 ..... 4
artifact:.... 3........2 ..... 5
materials: 6..........4 .....10
earthquake:....3.......2 ..... 5
Dimensional rift:.. 3...0.....3
Unity Foil: ....0........1 ..... 1
Unity Rover: ...0........1 ..... 1
Power pod: ..0........2 ..... 2
50ec's: ....0...............1 .........1
75 rc's: ...0............1 ..... 1
Forest: ...0..........1 ..... 1

Unity foil, Pod on fungus{Hermes)

native: ...3..........8 ..... 11
materials: ...3..........4 ..... 7
kelp:... 4..........4 ..... 8
sonar: ...1..........3 ..... 4
artifact: ...3..........1 ..... 4
75c: .....1..........0 ..... 1
25c: .....2..........0 ..... 2
tech: .....1..........0 ..... 1
Tidal wave:... 2.......0 ..... 2
Unity foil: ..1..........1 ..... 2
Battle Ogre: ..1..........1 ..... 2
Unity Rover: ..3.......2 .....5
50 ec's: 0..........1 ..1


Unity foil, Pod in trench (1 probe team on board for ist batch, dropped off for second - Pegasus)

native: 5..........7 ..... 12
artifact: 5..........1 ..... 6
sonar: 3..........4 ..... 7
materials: 4..........5 ..... 9
75c: 1..........0 ..... 1
50c: 1..........0 ..... 1
25c: 1..........3 ..... 4
Unity rover: 2..........1 ..... 3
tidal wave: 2..........0 ..... 2
Unity foil: 1..........3 ..... 4
Ogre: 0..........1 ..... 1


Gun foil, Pod on fungus (Invincible)

native: 4..........6 ..... 10
kelp: 4..........3 ..... 7
sonar: 6..........3 ..... 9
100c: 1..........2 ..... 3
75c: 1..........0 ..... 1
50c: 1..........0 ..... 1
25c: 1..........3 ..... 4
tech: 2..........2 ..... 4
tidal wave: 4..........4 ..... 8
cloned gunfoil: 1..........0 ..... 1
materials: 0..........2 ..... 2

Analysis to follow

[Googlie]

Promised Analysis

Warwag & Shinsengumi

Background:

In the second batch of 25 there was a dual native pop - a spore launcher and a mondworm. The Commando unit could always destroy the spore launcher (but never got morale-boosted) and the Elite )the popping unit) had enough movement left to withdraw when the mindworm attacked at turn's end (but not enough movement to initiate an attack)

So there's little downside to the proposed tagteam podpop.

Invincible

Odds are:

32 % favorable pop
48% neutral pop
20% killing pop

I don't think they're good enough to risk losing the Invincible

Which leaves us with the question of Hermes and Pegasus. If we do execute the Doc Loyalty deal with the Gaians, and decide that we want to take a run at the Command Nexus, then I think it's worth gambling the 2 trannies on (for the AA's and'or materials completion) Consider :

Hermes

Negative (killing) odds: 22%
Neutral event: 26%
Favorable odds: 52%
> Artifact: 8%
> Materials: 16%
> ec's: 8%
> Rover, Ogre or another Foil: 18%
> tech: 2%

Pegasus

Unfavorable (killing) odds: 24%
Neutral odds: 18%
Favorable odds: 58%
> AA: 12%
> Materials completion: 18%
> ec's: 12%
> Rover/Ogre/Foil: 16%

(We can mitigate our losses - perhaps - if we put a trannie in production at RG, Vlad - currently in production there - and Minas Tirith. Downside, though, might be that we end up with 4 trannies of the slow kind when we're just 2 turns away from getting cruiser trannies. But I still liked the completions we got of rec commons at SC3 and Navy Sals at the others)

[Googlie]

Proposed orders

Build order changes pre pod-popping

Rio Grande and Vladivostok - to Navy Seals
Sector Craterwest - to a Rec Commons

(To be changed back following unsuccessful podpops)

Unit moves

Warwag (Elite rover): - pops pod on 54:8
Shinsengumi (Commando Rover): - on standby to deal with any resulting native life
SNC Pegasus: - NE x 1 and drop off probe team then W x 1 and NW x 1 to pop the pod there
SNCHermes: - N x 1 to pop the pod in the fungus
SCC Invincible: - navigates round the pod to the bay southeast of its current position
SCC Hunter:- E x 2 into the fungus
CRV-112: - remains on the monolith until the Gaian mindworm clears the way for egress
Olympus Academy's crawler N x 1 to commence crawling the mine there. Worker reassigned to the 1-1-1 tile currently being forested by Tomcat-3. Build commences on another crawler (3 turns)

All Tomcats are in the middle of executing orders, so no fresh ones needed

[Maniac]

Originally posted by Googlie
Build order changes pre pod-popping

Rio Grande and Vladivostok - to Navy Seals
Sector Craterwest - to a Rec Commons

Quick comment before going to the lessons:
Why not set production to a 0-1t-2 crawler? Those can then be used to build anything we want: a secret project, rec commons, navy seals...

Great data btw on the pod popping!! Must have cost a lot of work.

[Googlie]

I did think of crawlers - but their cost is 30 mins versus the Navy Seals' 50 minerals. (The only more exoensuve unit is the 4-2-2 Impact Rover at 60). So I went for the probefoil. But maybe a trance armored crawler (80 mins)

That'd have the advantage of being something we could put in the build at SC3 (and there I chose a Rec Commons over, say, a Research Hospital for its better drone-quelling properties)

[Googlie]

2146 Midturn Report

Well, there's good news and "not so good" news ('tho not really bad news)

Not so good first:

Rio Grande is no longer a port. Warwag popped an earthquake that filled in that little bay (and also, in the doing, stranded Zak's trannie with a scout in it - scout is now eyeballing Shinsengumi (which I moved back towards Rio Grande to put a new seedpod between it and the Uni scout, and the corollary good news is that it can no loger sail to Morgan and make contact )

Hermes popped a tidal wave that positioned it off Zak's coastline to the east

Now the good news:

Trade with Angels executed - they now have GS and we have Biogenetics

13 ec's transferred from Morgan to us

Rio Grande is still on the river, but it's doubled back on itself irrigating the Messenian Plains somewhat (but ETA for Doc Initiative is still 2148)

Pegasus dropped off its probe team and popped a Unity Rover

Hermes still had its full 3 movement points left, si I set it off for Vladivostok, but after 1 it encountered another seedpod. Figuring we were already ahead, and could afford to risk losing it, I popped that pod - and we got a facs completion of Vlad's trance armored supply crawler!!

Hunter moved west and got ensnared in the fungus

Invincible moved south along the Gaian coastline

Longstrider at SC3 moved to the coast to join his buddy and be picked up when Pegasus drops off the Unity Rover

Crawler at OA moved onto mine and commenced crawling. Worker re-allocated as per orders. Assembling of another crawler commenced

Build orders at RG and SC3 returned to original

2146 midturn save attached

[Maniac]

Originally posted by Googlie
I did think of crawlers - but their cost is 30 mins versus the Navy Seals' 50 minerals. (The only more exoensuve unit is the 4-2-2 Impact Rover at 60). So I went for the probefoil. But maybe a trance armored crawler (80 mins)

That's what I meant. The crawler with the most expensive armour, special unit abilities and chassis we can afford. Currently a 0-1t-2 in other words. Or a 0-2t-2 if unprototyped units can also be hurried with materials pods.

Anyway, thanks for the midsave. I'll have a look at it sometime tonight on my laptop. I'm curious how the Messenian Plains now look like.

[Googlie]

Rats!! Never thought of putting it on a rover chassis.

(I guess, though, that we now have syntharmor prototyped)

Still in midturn save mode - is there any advantage in rushing any unts?

The former, maybe (for that vaunted "turn advantage" but maybe not the Hoplite and the Crypteia?

Pic below shows the build status, hilited yellow the candidates for rushing, and the ec's needed to rush just beside them