Global Warming

[okosling]

In the Civ2 manual, it says:

"Global warming might occur at any time that at least nine map squares, anywhere in the world, are polluted. The probability that it will occur increases with the length of time contamination on this scale is left untreated."

Does anybody know roughly what the probability is? In the game I'm playing now, I'm on my second turn with more than nine squares polluted, and won't be able to get back under nine polluted squares until next turn (or worse, if additional squares get polluted next turn).

In the Civ2 Great Library, there is an excellent thread explaining the probability of a square becoming polluted, but doesn't say anything about the probability of global warming.

I'll confess I didn't start cleaning the pollution as soon as it started, if the polluted squares were not being worked or if the loss from pollution was only one trade arrow - it seemed more effective to use the engineers elsewhere. Then suddenly there were two turns with each adding a lot of new pollution and I was over the nine squares mentioned in the manual...

How bad is it if global warming happens? Will it necessarily make me much worse off, as it will affect all countries?

[Elephant]

Global warming can be pretty nasty. The icecaps "melt", and a bunch of "nice" terrain like grasslands turns into swampland. Screws things up royally for a while, especially if you have "balanced" your cities so they have 0 surplus food.

As to probability of GW, I have not seen a formula for it, but it is definitely dependent on number of squares polluted and number of turns. Do you know how to daisy-chain Engineers to get something done in one turn? I suggest you double up nearby Engineers, calling them off ongoing work projects if available. Two Eng on one skull should clear it in the current turn, one precharged one will do it by themselves. Just target the minimum number of tiles to get under nine tiles this turn, then go on to the rest next turn.

[debeest]

I have some vague recollection that there is a cumulative frequency of some kind. That is, it could be a 1% risk on the first turn you exceed the threshold, 2% risk on the second turn, 3% on the third, etc. I don't know what the actual numbers are, but the risk is fairly substantial, and if you go very many turns with 9 or more polluted squares, you're at high risk.

The damage is very large and you're not likely to be able to repair it within the timeframe of the game. The AI civs are similarly affected, but since you use your terrain much more effectively, the impact falls mainly on you. Avoid global warming at nearly all costs.

For this reason, avoid nukes at nearly all costs.

Note that AI squares do not get polluted unless they get nuked, so you generally only have your own pollution to worry about.

[Sparrowhawk]

Excellent question and one I hope someone has the answer to.

I would be happy to know what terrain changes to what terrain (i.e. Grassland becomes Swamp, Jungle or Desert; Plains become Swamp, Jungle or Desert; Forest becomes Jungle, Swamp or Plains; etc.)

Also, I have wondered if improving the land helps, such as irrigated plains........do they change with Global Warming same as unimproved terrain? If so, then the irrigation is lost I assume (if to swamp or jungle then obviously it is).

I have been tempted at times to send Engineers into enemy territory in MP games to clean up their pollution But that may be a little foolhardy

[debeest]

Terrain improvements are lost.

It can easily be worthwhile to send engineers to their deaths if they can clean up pollution that puts you at risk of global warming. It's that bad.

I don't know which terrains transform into which other terrains, but I'm reasonably sure that only coastal squares are affected. That makes little sense. But in Civ, often most of the squares are coastal, so the distinction doesn't matter too much.

[Sparrowhawk]

I am not sure that is correct, though I am not positive, I beleive that I have had inland squares also change.

[rjmatsleepers]

My recollection is that you get one or two messages of increasing severity - "scientists warn of global warming", that sort of thing - ahead of the actual terrain changes. Once you get the first warning, it's time to put a lot of resources into getting the pollution cleared up.

RJM at Sleeper's

[duke o' york]

Stick around, and see how we get on with the Dirty succession game.

If we play things right, then the world could look a lot different by the end of the game.

[-Jrabbit]

I'm pretty sure all terrain, coastal or not, is affected.

It's a truly catastrophic event that (by definition) only happens after you've achieved a pretty high level of development. If you've got a lot of large cities, pop loss due to lack of food is a huge issue.

[Zedd]

I have played games where for shere evil I tried nukeing the world as my space ship landed. You know, leave this one in ruins and buid a new perfect world .

Any way I have had over 75% of the land mass covered with white skulls and still recieved no global warming warnings and no melting ice caps. This may be in part to the decreaseing population due to nuke attacks but reguardless I have never acctually seen global warming occur and would say you are safe as long as the warning pop up doesn't appear.

BTW the "SUN" was completely white the last 15 turns of the game

[Old n Slow]

The game level may make a difference -- lees of a chance at Prince say than Emperor.

I’ve only had it happen to me once (about three turns before the game was over.)

On the other hand, ALL the skulls go away (which is a plus for score purposes.), and a few hidden specials might just appear…

I think plains go to desert (maybe 20-25% of the spaces?) and grassland (again a significant number -- 20% looks seems to be near the amount) may go to swamp or jungle (and maybe something else, I don’t recall). the new swamp & jungle caused the irrigation & farmland to vanish -- I don’t recall about the roads, RR: I think that the irrigation & farms stayed with the deserts.

Some of your city spaces will also be affected.

[Old n Slow]

The game level may make a difference -- less of a chance at Prince say than Emperor.

I’ve only had it happen to me once (about three turns before the game was over.)

On the other hand, ALL the skulls go away (which is a plus for score purposes.), and a few hidden specials might just appear…

I think plains go to desert (maybe 20-25% of the spaces?) and grassland (again a significant number -- 20% looks seems to be near the amount) may go to swamp or jungle (and maybe something else, I don’t recall). the new swamp & jungle caused the irrigation & farmland to vanish -- I don’t recall about the roads, RR: I think that the irrigation & farms stayed with the deserts.

Some of your city spaces will also be affected.

[Mercator]

Originally posted by Old n Slow
On the other hand, ALL the skulls go away [...]

No, they don't.

I made a little test map, and tried a little pollution game (savegames are FW, but you can of course retest it yourself, using the map I provided if you want)...

I didn't test pollution chance, although I'm inclined to think it's simply a fixed amount of turns.

But which terrain turn into which, and with what pattern can be seen clearly.

All coastal Grassland, Plains and Desert will turn into Swamp. All coastal Forest will turn into Jungle.

In-land terrains change according to a striped pattern. Every 4 diagonal lines change, along the NW-SE diagonal. With the first and second global warming, the exact same squares will be affected. The 3rd time the pattern is offset one line down, the 4th time is the same as the 3rd again. The 5th and 6th times are again one line down from 3rd and 4th... etc.

The In-land terrains change like this:
Plains -> Desert
Grassland -> Plains
Forest -> Plains
None of the other terrains are affected.

[okosling]

>I'm inclined to think it's simply a fixed amount of turns.

Roughly how many turns did it take, and did you get a warning before it happened?

[Mercator]

I can only say anything about my test game, but I counted the turns, and it's definitely a fixed amount.

I plaed the game several times, and let global warming occur several times in a row...

At the beginning of the 12th turn after I placed plenty of pollution, I got the "scientists alarmed..." warning. Five turns later the global warming actually occurred. This pattern kept repeating itself (I didn't clean anything up). Again after the global warming it took 12 turns for the warning, then another 5 for the actual global warming.

If I only put 8 pollution squares, I still got the warning at the 12th turn, but no global warming after that. However, as soon as I placed a 9th pollution square, the global warming occurred instantly (that was more than 5 turns after the warning, admittedly).

With less than 8 pollution squares, I didn't get any warning either. But when I added an 8th, I suddenly got a warning every single turn...

A lot of testing would still have to be done (not by me!), but it's not random... Of course, the map size, difficulty level, and what have you could all have some influence, but that can all be determined.