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Against all odds!

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  • #31
    There are some statistics that only can happan on paper. if you flip a deck of cards out of a plane, they will never reform and land on the ground-no matter how many times they are flipped. This is because order cannot arise from non-order without something external to force them into a deck.
    A bit off topic, but tell that to someone who believes in the 'Theory of Evolution'.

    Apparently 'magic statistics' works there OK....

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    • #32
      The odds of that Musket vs Catapult battle = 1 in 6200.

      My worst upset was losing my full hp lvl6 Horseman (all combat, ie Combat5) to a combat1 chariot. The chariot didn't even lose a hitpoint. Not a very fitting way for my prize ancient-era unit to go.

      What I really hate about a "flawless loss" is there is no reason it can't happen again.

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      • #33
        Horseman ... you mean Horse archer or Knight?

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Xerxes712


          A bit off topic, but tell that to someone who believes in the 'Theory of Evolution'.

          Apparently 'magic statistics' works there OK....
          I can't let this pass, sorry. two points:
          1) The statement that order cannot arise from disorder without an external force is only sort-of true. The cards could land perfectly. It's just so unlikely that if you tried this 1 time a second, the probability is that the universe would come to an end before it happened.
          2) Evolution has an external factor - the environment. Contrary to popular belief, Darwin's Big Idea was not evolution - that was a pre-exisiting idea (see Lamark et al). His Big Idea was the *mechanism* by which it happens - natural selection. Mathematically, it's a very good example of how with enough trials, probabilities even themselves out. No "magic statistics" at all.(Newtonian mechanics still working given quantum theory is another)

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Enigma_Nova
            Horseman ... you mean Horse archer or Knight?
            I mean horse archer ofcourse. I mean if it was a knight wouldn't i just call it a knight because knight is a shorter word?

            Besides horse archers don't only use their bows or they wouldn't let themselves get wtfpwned by spearmen.

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            • #36
              1) The statement that order cannot arise from disorder without an external force is only sort-of true. The cards could land perfectly. It's just so unlikely that if you tried this 1 time a second, the probability is that the universe would come to an end before it happened.
              No they cant. statistics represent what has already happaned and are attempting to forecast what will happan. Until it has happaned once, chances are 0%. Everytime you flip em out of the plane,its another +1 to your example size.

              2) Evolution has an external factor - the environment. Contrary to popular belief, Darwin's Big Idea was not evolution - that was a pre-exisiting idea (see Lamark et al). His Big Idea was the *mechanism* by which it happens - natural selection. Mathematically, it's a very good example of how with enough trials, probabilities even themselves out. No "magic statistics" at all.(Newtonian mechanics still working given quantum theory is another)
              Whoops, except the facts indicate it didnt happan. It hasnt been replicated, and many pro-evolutionary facts are completely made up. Including radiocarbon dating, which has been proven to give highly erronous readings. In fact, thats why ''scientists'' use it-it tells em what they want to hear. Not my kind of religion, thanks. i prefer facts over faith-based systems
              if you want to stop terrorism; stop participating in it

              ''Oh,Commissar,if we could put the potatoes in one pile,they would reach the foot of God''.But,replied the commissar,''This is the Soviet Union.There is no God''.''Thats all right'' said the worker,''There are no potatoes''

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Kataphraktoi


                ...statistics represent what has already happaned and are attempting to forecast what will happan. Until it has happaned once, chances are 0%. Everytime you flip em out of the plane,its another +1 to your example size.
                RIAA sucks
                The Optimistas
                I'm a political cartoonist

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                • #38
                  I tossed my brand new coin that's never been tossed before - it came up heads. That means it will be heads with 100% probability next time I toss it. I'll bet my house on it.


                  Edit - I'm now homeless.
                  One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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                  • #39


                    statistics represent what has already happaned and are attempting to forecast what will happan
                    I didnt say it couldnt happan because it hasnt before. But if you knew nothing about coins, it would be a reasonable assumption that flipping a coin gives heads. until someone or something, like flipping the coin some more,tells you otherwise. the same lgoic applys to stating as an absolute that flipping cards wont give you a deck, but then, the phsyics we know indicates that wont happan.

                    whats wrong with being homeless?
                    Last edited by Kataphraktoi; December 28, 2005, 18:21.
                    if you want to stop terrorism; stop participating in it

                    ''Oh,Commissar,if we could put the potatoes in one pile,they would reach the foot of God''.But,replied the commissar,''This is the Soviet Union.There is no God''.''Thats all right'' said the worker,''There are no potatoes''

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                    • #40
                      There's mathematical statistics and business statistics.
                      Mathematical Statistics are used in such things as Meteorology, Economics, Physics, (Computer and/or Mathematical) Modelling, Psychology, and possibly a whole lot of other stuff.
                      Business statistics are used by business students in an attempt to sound smart on the Apolyton forums until Dauphin pwns them.
                      Good Job, Dauphin.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Kataphraktoi


                        No they cant. statistics represent what has already happaned and are attempting to forecast what will happan. Until it has happaned once, chances are 0%. Everytime you flip em out of the plane,its another +1 to your example size.
                        I like your thinking on that, but I always say that the odds are 50% -- It will either happen...or it won't

                        by Mergle

                        Mathematically, it's a very good example of how with enough trials, probabilities even themselves out. No "magic statistics" at all.Newtonian mechanics still working given quantum theory is another
                        Ummm... this universe is the most statistically likely of all outcomes, given the relative charges of the quarks. You will note some rounding.
                        Populus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur

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                        • #42
                          Business statistics are used by business students in an attempt to sound smart on the Apolyton forums until Dauphin pwns them.
                          'cept im not a business student. And i think a 'good job' from you counts negative

                          if you want to stop terrorism; stop participating in it

                          ''Oh,Commissar,if we could put the potatoes in one pile,they would reach the foot of God''.But,replied the commissar,''This is the Soviet Union.There is no God''.''Thats all right'' said the worker,''There are no potatoes''

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                          • #43
                            Go back to OT...

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                            • #44
                              You first, good sir.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Kataphraktoi

                                No they cant. statistics represent what has already happaned and are attempting to forecast what will happan. Until it has happaned once, chances are 0%. Everytime you flip em out of the plane,its another +1 to your example size.
                                realistically, you can expect the cards will never re-order themselves into a deck...

                                however, the possibility of the cards re-ordering is real and if we extend the sample size to a large enough sample (infinity), then it is inevitable that the cards will re-order themselves.

                                Since it is inevitable that 1 result out of an infinite # of samples will produce the desired outcome, we can guarantee a non-zero chance of each flip also creating the desired outcome (a re-ordered deck of cards)

                                however, as pointed out, there is a decent chance the universe could end (?) before this happens

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