Console Wars VI

[Asher]

It doesn't matter if they can afford it. They're easily the most consumer gouging company out of all 3 console makers in relative terms.

Hell, a complete set of 4 controllers for the Wii now costs ~$340.

Considering the combined cost to make them is probably closer to $10, that's borderline criminal.

[Asher]

NPD Top 20


1. RESIDENT EVIL 5* 360 CAPCOM USA
2. POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
3. HALO WARS* 360 MICROSOFT
4. RESIDENT EVIL 5* PS3 CAPCOM USA
5. WII FIT WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA
6. MLB '09: THE SHOW PS3 SONY
7. KILLZONE 2 PS3 SONY
8. WII PLAY W/ REMOTE WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA
9. MARIO KART W/WHEEL WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA
10. MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 360 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
11. GUITAR HERO METALLICA 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
12. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
13. STREET FIGHTER IV* 360 CAPCOM USA
14. MARIO KART DS NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
15. STREET FIGHTER IV* PS3 CAPCOM USA
16. NEW SUPER MARIO BROS NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
17. PROFESSOR LAYTON AND THE CURIOUS VILLAGE NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
18. MLB '09: THE SHOW PS2 SONY
19. HALO 3* 360 MICROSOFT
20. LEGO STAR WARS: COMPLETE SAGA WII LUCASARTS

Top 10 Wii:

1. WII FIT NINTENDO OF AMERICA
2. WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA
3. MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA
4. LEGO STAR WARS: COMPLETE SAGA LUCASARTS
5. LINK'S CROSSBOW TRAINING NINTENDO OF AMERICA
6. GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
7. GUITAR HERO METALLICA ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
8. NEW PLAY CONTROL! MARIO POWER TENNIS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
9. MADWORLD SEGA OF AMERICA
10. SONIC AND THE BLACK KNIGHT SEGA OF AMERICA

Top 10 Xbox 360:

1. RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA
2. HALO WARS* MICROSOFT
3. MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
4. GUITAR HERO METALLICA ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
5. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR* ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
6. STREET FIGHTER IV* CAPCOM USA
7. HALO 3* MICROSOFT
8. TOM CLANCY'S H.A.W.X. UBISOFT
9. NBA 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
10. WWE LEGENDS OF WRESTLEMANIA THQ

Top 10 PlayStation 2:

1. MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY
2. NARUTO: ULTIMATE NINJA 4 NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA
3. GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
4. NBA 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
5. MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
6. RESIDENT EVIL 4* CAPCOM USA
7. TOMB RAIDER: UNDERWORLD EIDOS INTERACTIVE
8. GOD OF WAR II SONY
9. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
10. GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* ACTIVISION BLIZZARD

Top 10 PlayStation 3:

1. RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA
2. MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY
3. KILLZONE 2 SONY
4. STREET FIGHTER IV* CAPCOM USA
5. GUITAR HERO METALLICA ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
6. TOM CLANCY'S H.A.W.X. UBISOFT
7. CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
8. WWE LEGENDS OF WRESTLEMANIA THQ
9. SONIC'S ULTIMATE GENESIS COLLECTION SEGA OF AMERICA
10. NBA 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE

Top 10 Game Boy Advance:

1. ASTEROIDS/PONG/YARS DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.
2. UNO 52 DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.
3. PUPPY LUV: SPA & RESORT ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
4. BIG MUTHA TRUCKERS DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.
5. VALUE GAME BUNDLE 14.99 MULTIPLE VIDEO GAME MANUFACTURER
6. GBA SPYHUNTER/SUPERSPRINT DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.
7. VAN HELSING ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
8. PRINCESS NATASHA: STUDENT SECRET AGENT DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.
9. UNO/FREEFALL DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.
10. GAUNTLET/RAMPART DESTINATION SOFTWARE INC.

Top 10 Nintendo DS:

1. POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA
2. MARIO KART DS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
3. NEW SUPER MARIO BROS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
4. PROFESSOR LAYTON AND THE CURIOUS VILLAGE NINTENDO OF AMERICA
5. GRAND THEFT AUTO: CHINATOWN WARS TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
6. LEGO STAR WARS: COMPLETE SAGA LUCASARTS
7. PHINEAS AND FERB DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS
8. MARIO PARTY NINTENDO OF AMERICA
9. SUPER MARIO 64 DS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
10. CLUB PENGUIN: ELITE PENGUIN FORCE DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS

Top 10 PSP:

1. MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY
2. RESISTANCE: RETRIBUTION SONY
3. PHANTASY STAR PORTABLE SEGA OF AMERICA
4. GRAND THEFT AUTO: LIBERTY CITY STORIES TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
5. GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE CITY STORIES TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
6. IRON MAN SEGA OF AMERICA
7. MEDAL OF HONOR: HEROES 2 ELECTRONIC ARTS
8. MIDNIGHT CLUB: LA REMIX TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
9. WWE SMACKDOWN VS RAW 2008 THQ
10. MX VS ATV UNLEASHED: ON THE EDGE THQ

Top 10 Portable Games (All):

1. NDS POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
2. NDS MARIO KART DS NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
3. NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
4. NDS PROFESSOR LAYTON AND THE CURIOUS VILLAGE NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
5. NDS GRAND THEFT AUTO: CHINATOWN WARS NDS TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE
6. NDS LEGO STAR WARS: COMPLETE SAGA NDS LUCASARTS
7. NDS PHINEAS AND FERB NDS DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS
8. PSP MLB '09: THE SHOW NDS SONY
9. NDS MARIO PARTY NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA
10. NDS SUPER MARIO 64 DS NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA

Top 10 Accessories

1. WII NUNCHUK CONTROLLER NINTENDO OF AMERICA
2. 360 LIVE 1600 POINT GAME CARD MICROSOFT
3. WII REMOTE CONTROLLER W/ JACKET NINTENDO OF AMERICA
4. PS3 DUALSHOCK 3 WIRELESS CONTROLLER SONY
5. 360 LIVE 1 MONTH GOLD CARD MICROSOFT
6. WII REMOTE CONTROLLER NINTENDO OF AMERICA
7. 360 HEADSET MICROSOFT
8. 360 LIVE 12 MONTH GOLD CARD MICROSOFT
9. 360 LIVE 3 MONTH GOLD CARD MICROSOFT
10. WII WHEEL GRIP NINTENDO OF AMERICA

[Asher]

http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,2845,2345498,00.asp

Playstation 3's Death Spiral

Is the Playstation 3 doomed? Given the continuing spiral of reduced sales of the console, and of games that ship for the PS3, the situation has never been more dire for Sony's premiere gaming console.

Every month, market research firm NPD releases the sales figures for the US for the top selling consoles and video games. Let's look at the numbers for console games for March, 2009:


Nintendo Wii 601K

Nintendo DS 563K

Xbox 360 330K

Playstation 3 218K

Playstation Portable (PSP) 168K

Playstation 2 112K

To put this into some context, let's take a look at numbers from March, 2008:


Nintendo Wii 721K
Nintendo DS 698K
PSP 297K
Xbox 360 262K
Playstation 3 257K
Playstation 2 216K
Several things have occurred since March, 2008. First, the worldwide financial meltdown accelerated, which no doubt has an impact on buying habits of items like game consoles, which are certainly not necessities. Secondly, standalone Blu-ray players have substantially improved in performance and dropped in price.

So while you can argue that the PS3 is still one of the better Blu-ray players, a number of lower cost models that integrate better into A/V systems are now available.

And third, Microsoft dropped the price on the Xbox 360.

That third point is probably one key reason Xbox 360 sales are up in March 2009, compared to March 2008. In fact, the 360 is the only console whose sales are up relative to a year ago. (On the other hand, even though the Nintendo Wii is down from a year ago, it's still nearly double the Xbox 360 figures.)

The problems facing Sony (at least in the US) are further illustrated by the sales numbers for the top ten video games.


Resident Evil 5 (Xbox 360) 938K

Pokemon Platinum (Nintendo DS) 805K

Halo Wars (Xbox 360) 639K

Resident Evil 5 (PS3) 585K

Wii Fit w/Balance Board (Nintendo Wii) 541K

MLB '09: The Show (PS3) 305K

Killzone 2 (PS3) 296K

Wii Play w/Remote (Nintendo Wii) 281K

Mario Kart w/Wheel (Nintendo Wii) 278K

Major League Baseball 2K9 (Xbox 360) 205K
Of the top ten, Xbox 360 software crushed the competition in terms of units, with a total of 1.78M games sold. Of course, Nintendo's Wii software sales probably made them more money. In that top ten, the Wii represents 1.1M units, but the Wii Fit, at 541K, is a game and controller combo that goes for around $90. The PS3 did eke out second place in software sales, falling just shy of 1.2M units.

There are two key points to consider in those numbers. First, Resident Evil 5 on the Xbox 360 outdid RE5 on the PS3 by 60%. The second point is that Killzone 2, a PS3-exclusive and a major release for the PS3 didn't hit 300,000 units sold. That has to be a blow to Sony.

Right now, the PS3 is simply too expensive, particularly in today's harsh economic conditions. $400 and up, is not competitive. And if PS3-exclusive titles keep selling poorly, developers who aren't owned by Sony are going to be very skittish about doing exclusives for Sony's current gen console.

Finally, one key advantage of the PS3—its stellar Blu-ray playback—is becoming eclipsed by the wave of cheaper and, arguably, equally good dedicated Blu-ray players.

That's the story for the US. Of course, Sony's home is Japan, and Bill Harris has a cogent analysis of just how poorly Sony is doing in its mother country. Bill plots a 12 month rolling average of console sales over the past decade, and it's quite illuminating.

Sony's PS3 is in dire trouble. It's notoriously difficult to program, which doesn't endear it to developers. Games don't sell as well on the PS3 as other consoles, which makes publishers skittish. Sony's flagship console needs a big price cut, but it's unclear if the PS3 can be cost-reduced enough to support it, given the continuing high cost of its components. The company may have no choice, if it wants to remain in the game.

[DrSpike]

Nice article - I agree that cheaper standalone Blu-Ray players coming on the market is a key factor, and it isn't going away. I guess Sony thought they'd have a stronger position by the time that happened. They have to choose between dying a slow death and very painful price cuts.

And the Wii continues to rake in cash.

[Asher]

Nice article - I agree that cheaper standalone Blu-Ray players coming on the market is a key factor, and it isn't going away. I guess Sony thought they'd have a stronger position by the time that happened. They have to choose between dying a slow death and very painful price cuts.

And the Wii continues to rake in cash.

That's one way to look at it. The other is to be realistic -- Nintendo shares fell 6% on the news, Wii sales are noticably decreasing for the first time ever and analysts are talking about the coming "saturation point".

We may've just witnessed the inflection point for the Wii.

[Asher]

For El_Cid, from the AWESOME gamasutra:

After a nearly flat performance from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2008, the Xbox 360 gained almost 38% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009.

In fact, 1Q 2009 was the first non-holiday quarter during which the Xbox 360 broke the million system barrier. (It had previously come within 25,000 systems during 3Q 2007, during the launch of Halo 3.)

Sony's systems have started 2009 with far lower sales than it saw in 2008. The PlayStation Portable (PSP) saw a decline of 30% from its sales in 1Q 2008 while the PlayStation 3 dropped almost 14%. The ailing PlayStation 2 dropped a staggering 59% in 1Q 2009, year-on-year.

It reinforces my assertion that the bulk of the PS2 crowd is moving to the 360 and Wii, and away from Sony of any kind.

The PS2 crowd that bought "Singstar" and the My Little Pony type games are going to the Wii (in addition to the "new customers" of grandmas, tween girls, etc) while the "core gamers" from the PS2 transition to the 360. That explains why the 360 is still selling more software, at least in the top 20, than the other platforms despite the Wii's hardware install base advantage.

While Mario Kart for the Wii continues to sell a couple hundred thousand month after month, new third-party Wii games – even well-known and heavily promoted ones – can't manage to break 75,000.

On the Nintendo DS we've seen several recent months of 100,000 units of Mario Kart DS, originally launched in November 2005, yet the biggest third-party game for the system doesn't break 90,000.

Of course, what unifies the third-party games mentioned here is the M (for Mature) rating assigned to them by the Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB). While Call of Duty 4 was also rated Mature on other platforms, the Nintendo DS version cited by Nintendo for its enduring sales was rated T (for Teen).

And the games that populate the Nintendo DS and Wii top 10 lists month after month are typically rated E (for Everyone) for E10+ (for Everyone 10 and older).

While M-rated software can make a tremendous amount of money (the Halo trilogy, for example) the writing is on the wall right now for publishers and developers: there is a limited audience for these games on the Wii.

Publishers are likely to concentrate on genres and franchises that guarantee solid sales, and those will more than likely be E-rated. Electronic Arts appears to quietly be doing precisely this, as it managed to hit #8 on the Wii top 10 in February 2009 with its own spin of the Mario Kart genre, NASCAR Kart Racing.

"Mad World" was being hyped to no end by many Nintendo fanboys as proof that not all games on the Wii are kiddy and bland. Now that Mad World is a certifiable bomb, it pretty much shows they were wrong. The market for the Wii is increasingly becoming targeted towards children and families -- not that this is BAD, per se, it's just increasingly frustrating the original Nintendo fans. These fans will really have no choice but to head to the 360 (or PS3) if they want regularly-released games not aimed towards children.

And finally, more evidence suggesting my "dust-collecting" assertion is correct:

Moreover, Wedbush Morgan's Mr. Pachter commented that, taking the difference of Wii Fit and Super Smash Bros. Brawl sales into account, it appears that Wii software sales were flat year-on-year. This is particularly striking because, as he notes, the system's installed base has more than doubled in the last 12 months.

Essentially flat sales of software given doubled install base? What other conclusion can one draw?

[El_Cid]

I totaly agree the PS2 is on a big downward spiral. It's a very old console by anyones standards and many people have played most of the games they want to on it(it's been around long enough). Add to that the massive slow down in good recent game releases and it's obvious to see it is a system that has had it's day.

Still sitting here watching my gf play Persona 3 FES and with titles like Dragon Quest 8 for her to look forward to, it's easily the best platform for us(I have Katamari/Ico/Ecco the dolphin/Gitarro Man etc to look forward to) in terms of the broad range of games it has, many of which are exceptional games for a console platform.

I think the poor conversion rate of people buying GTA - chinatown wars(DS) and the poor sales of the ultra violent Mad World on Wii show that each console has it's playing base and they know what kind of games they want to play on those platforms.

In that equation the 360 has a great advantage, as it clearly is beating the PS3 in most(all?) areas. And that fact, strangely gives me hope for the PS2's further longevity. Only Sony can answer that

p.s thank you for quoting gamasutra - i know it must have hurt!

[lord of the mark]

Is Mr Pachter still forecasting a rebound for the PS3?

[Asher]

No.

[lord of the mark]

No.

Good, finally seen reason.

Meanwhile, heres more on the Nintendo stock price. While its from teh eevil gamasutra, they source Barron's.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23281

[Asher]

All stock analysts talk out of their ass. Meaningless.

[El_Cid]

All stock analysts talk out of their ass. Meaningless.

...except the ones talking about Xbox/MS surely!?

[DrSpike]

For El_Cid, from the AWESOME gamasutra:

more evidence suggesting my "dust-collecting" assertion is correct...

...essentially flat sales of software given doubled install base? What other conclusion can one draw?

Hardcore gamers have stopped buying Wii games, realising that they are not for them, and casual gamers regularly play their existing games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit, with their Wiis dust free.

[DrSpike]

i totaly agree the ps2 is on a big downward spiral. It's a very old console by anyones standards and many people have played most of the games they want to on it(it's been around long enough). Add to that the massive slow down in good recent game releases and it's obvious to see it is a system that has had it's day.

qft.

Edit: Why are we not allowed to post in caps any more?

[Asher]

Hardcore gamers have stopped buying Wii games, realising that they are not for them, and casual gamers regularly play their existing games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit, with their Wiis dust free.

[DrSpike]blahblahblah unsupported claim blahblahblah, prove blahblahblah[/DrSpike]

On the contrary, the Wii Fit is known to be collecting dust specifically. Anyone who remembers the Tai-Bo trend could've predicted this.

http://videogames.yahoo.com/feature/the-truth-about-wii-fit-and-weight-loss/1284826

Nintendo's exercise game Wii Fit is still flying off retail shelves eight months after its U.S. release last May. The all-in-one instructional tool, weight tracker and fitness coach advertises itself as a painless way for the whole family to get healthy thanks to the game's "balance board," which measures players' movement. Offering a selection of activities--from running to push-ups to yoga--Wii Fit is now in almost 1.5 million homes across the country. But is anyone actually using it?

Not really, says Brian Crecente, managing editor of the popular gaming blog Kotaku. Despite optimistic predictions that Nintendo had unleashed a new era of videogames, Crecente calls Wii Fit little more than an exercise fad that's bound to come and go like any other. "I don't know a single person who has bought the game who uses it routinely after a month," he claims, stressing that getting results from the game requires dedication and real physical exertion. "What Nintendo did is they tapped into that desire people have to be healthier... Everyone wants to work out, but nobody really wants to put the effort into it."

One of the things that's made Wii Fit so popular is the excitement Nintendo has stirred up with people who don't normally play. For Crecente, that excitement--and the let down that often comes with it--hit home. "My mom and step dad both tried Wii Fit before it came out," he says, "and like every other middle-aged American, they loved it." In fact, they loved it so much they went out and bought a Wii of their own. Months later, though, when Crecente stopped by for a visit, he didn't need to ask if they'd set foot on their balance board. Their Wii had never even been set up. So much for physical fitness.

Don't blame Nintendo for people's sloth, observers say. The company has marketed its new cash cow brilliantly, and it's not responsible for whether consumers play the game or not. Nintendo declined to comment for this article, but Wii Fit creator Shigeru Miyamoto has previously gone on record and said that the game is less about people losing weight and more about broadening the videogame market. Still, it seems a little disingenuous for Nintendo to heavily market a fitness tool that's sitting in more than a million American living rooms collecting dust.

That's not to say Wii Fit doesn't work--if you play it. Brian Ashcraft, another Kotaku editor, tried the game out faithfully for a month when it was first released in order to review it. The results: He enjoyed the yoga, and started to feel more in shape. But the novelty wore off, and Ashcraft admits he hasn't picked up the game in a long, long time.

Not everyone, however, is prepared to give up on Wii Fit. Instead of relying on anecdotal evidence, Scott Owens, a professor of exercise science at the University of Mississippi, has started a six-month study to uncover whether placing Wii Fit in a home will actually improve a family's physical fitness. By donating the game to local participants for three months at a time, then taking it away for another three months, Owens will be able to observe how the game impacts cardiovascular fitness, flexibility and balance. How often families use Wii Fit will be up to them.

Of course, the overall goal of Owens' study isn't to question Wii Fit's effectiveness--it's to provide more insight into the American obesity epidemic. Right now, Owens speculates that playing traditional videogames might be a contributing factor because it's a sedentary activity. Results of his study are expected to come out this June.

In the meantime, gamers like Crecente remain skeptical about the Wii Fit hype, predicting that this, too, will pass into fitness fad history. When a neighbor mentioned heading out to buy a Wii Fit recently, Crecente's advice was simple: Don't do it. "I have to keep reminding people," he sighs, "even though it's a videogame, it's still exercise. It might be fun a little bit, but it's work."