Console Wars II

[Asher]

You ever seen an ungeeky person, such as a Sports jock, write a review of a game like, say, KOTOR?

[Nikolai]

Anyone seen a financial report about Nintendo lately? I read some interesting numbers on a fan site, but the stupid site doesn't cite it's source. The article says Nintendo's sold 13.17 million Wiis, that Nintendo's net income has risen from 54.3 billion yen to 132.4 billion over a year, the sales from 298.8 billion yen to 694.8 billion. The estimated surplus for the year in july was 245 billion yen and now it's 275. And they linked to an interesting graph. It looks nearly too good to be true though:

Graph

I did a fast search on google, but didn't find any reports on this in the top results at least. Anyone who have seen this with a source somewhere? As interesting these numbers might be, they are not much worth without that after all.

EDIT: The image tag doesn't seem to work... For readability I'll change it to an url.

[asleepathewheel]

If you found that graph (which doesn't have anything to do with your preceding paragraph) you should be able to find what else you're looking for.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2007/071025.pdf

basically, 13.17m wii units shipped to retailers, lifetime, 7.33m since april.

The kicker is the forecast:

10.17m wiis sold to retailers between oct 1 07 and march 30 08

Is there any doubt, really? Galaxy, Wii Fit, Brawl over that period?

I'm thinking they delayed brawl because it wasn't necessary to move consoles now, and it will sustain the sellouts through probably the summertime.

Mix in Mario Kart Wii in perhaps April, and the Animal Crossing MMO in early summer, and its 2007 all over again for the wii, hardware wise.

Now if only 3rd parties would put out a few decent games....

[asleepathewheel]

MS:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071025/aqth132.html?.v=17

profitable quarter, boosted considerably by 5 days of Halo3.


Sony:

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/07q2_sony.pdf

In the hole 841m

recap:


Sold to Retail/Shipped

LTD:

PS3 - 5.59 million (11 months)
Wii - 13.17 million (11 months)
360 - 13.4 million (23 months)

Monthly average:

PS3 - 508,100 (per month)
360 - 582,600 (per month)
Wii - 1,197,200 (per month)

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
and the Animal Crossing MMO in early summer,

I know a few people who will be very, very happy about this one ... whihc scares me to no end

[Kuciwalker]

I remember all the analysts who claimed the 360 would win by virtue of being the first to 10 mill... and a certain poster who very aggressively quoted them

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by snoopy369


I know a few people who will be very, very happy about this one ... whihc scares me to no end

Yeah, its not something I would ever play, but damn do those sell to a certain audience.

And I don't know if its out in the summer, since it was just leaked a few days ago, but it would make sense, timing wise.

[Verto]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
I remember all the analysts who claimed the 360 would win by virtue of being the first to 10 mill... and a certain poster who very aggressively quoted them

It is true that Nintendo has sold a lot of Wiis, but it doesn't have an insurmountable lead over other consoles - especially not when you factor in game sales (or lack of)

[Kuciwalker]

Oh, I agree (I'm on record as claiming it's a shiny white paperweight until Smash comes out), but it clearly hasn't lost.

[Nikolai]

So true. But otoh, the potential good games for Wii is increasing the next months. And Wii has a good position for a console which doesn't directly compete with the other consoles.

[Verto]

Originally posted by Nikolai
So true. But otoh, the potential good games for Wii is increasing the next months. And Wii has a good position for a console which doesn't directly compete with the other consoles.

The Wii, IMO, has no real potential. Sure it'll sell a lot and make money, but as far as actually changing the way we play video games..not so much. I really doubt we'll see any games that showcase motion sensing worth mentioning. Metroid Prime 3 didn't do it, I'm sure Galaxy won't (although it'll no doubt be a fun game, but just as fun w/ GameCube controls)

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Verto


It is true that Nintendo has sold a lot of Wiis, but it doesn't have an insurmountable lead over other consoles - especially not when you factor in game sales (or lack of)

Well, apparently wii sports + a handful of good titles are enough to equal 360 sales in half the time. I think a year' time is a pretty good harbinger for the near future, especially with the lineup the Wii is trotting out.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Verto
The Wii, IMO, has no real potential. Sure it'll sell a lot and make money, but as far as actually changing the way we play video games..not so much.

Like the 360 and ps3 have changed how you play a video game?

[Nikolai]

Originally posted by Verto


The Wii, IMO, has no real potential. Sure it'll sell a lot and make money, but as far as actually changing the way we play video games..not so much. I really doubt we'll see any games that showcase motion sensing worth mentioning. Metroid Prime 3 didn't do it, I'm sure Galaxy won't (although it'll no doubt be a fun game, but just as fun w/ GameCube controls)

I read a sneek peek review of Galaxy today, from a reviewer who had played for an hour. He wrote that the controls were weird in the beginning, but that they soon showed to be quite good.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Verto


The Wii, IMO, has no real potential. Sure it'll sell a lot and make money, but as far as actually changing the way we play video games..not so much. I really doubt we'll see any games that showcase motion sensing worth mentioning. Metroid Prime 3 didn't do it, I'm sure Galaxy won't (although it'll no doubt be a fun game, but just as fun w/ GameCube controls)

Here's the key to the argument. I remember some pretty intense arguments over the future of the Wii when it first launched. I maintained the hardware isn't beefy enough to pull off the kind of games people think that "motion control" would be good for. I also maintained the controller itself also isn't precise enough.

I did not predict the Tickle-Me-Elmo effect touching the Wii and Nintendo's intentional starvation of the market to create the "if you see it, BUY IT" phenomenon that affected so many people. But I was very right that the Wii's "revolutionary control scheme" is rather gimmicky, and software sales are bearing this out. Games like Red Steel and Tiger Woods '07 had high initial sales because everyone was going "OMFG MOTION CONTROL!!!", then Tiger Woods '08 had crap sales (with a far larger install base) because people learned their lesson from Tiger Woods '07.

This has been discussed to death, but Wii's software sales are low. Even extremely highly rated games that make excellent use of the Wiimote's characteristics are selling like 2nd or 3rd rate Xbox 360 games.

I think it should be obvious to everyone that the "# of consoles sold" importance has dropped significantly due to the expanded "Wii" market. With the Gamecube, Xbox, and PS2 there was a single gaming market and the Wii has succeeded in creating a thriving shovelware/"casual gaming" market that is clearly distinct from the first (witness only a 2% drop in Wii sales with the Halo 3 release). So while I've no doubt the Wii will sell a ****load of units, I'm extremely confident that they will be an "expensive paperweight" for years to come for most people. Yes, games like Mario and Smash Brothers are coming out...but those games largely play in the same market as Metroid Prime 3's whose sales are quite low.

The metric that's important to game developers, and thus to game players, is who is buying the games. And people are simply not buying Wii games. It's essentially a Wii Sports adapter for drunken parties, and that's apparently all people are using it for. You can't even use the "there are no good games out" excuse -- there are, and they're sitting on store shelves.