RIP Troika

[Nostromo]

US PC game sales have have been declining for several years, apparently, from a high in the late 90's, IIRC. Now theres some issues with that data (it probably doesnt cover much on line sales, and doesnt included ongoing MMORPG revenue) but its still a troubling statistic. I dont think PC gaming is dying (cause of A. the data issues i mentioned and B. Even if it shrinks dramatrically, thats not necessarily death) but the lack of sales IS a real issue, I think. Also Im not sure I take Brad as gospel - ive seen things hes posted in various places, and he tends to base alot of things on Stardocks own experiences, which arent always generalizable.

I don't take Brad as gospel either, but he made some convincing points. And I think he's right when he's says that:

there are just too many games released each year relative to the number of people who buy them.

That is also a real issue.

I haven't seen the statistics you're talking about, but are the numbers that dramatic? You know the saying: there are lies, damn lies and statistics. For example, you probably heard of the numbers according to which the game industry is now making more money than the movie industry. Well, that's bull. These numbers take into account console sales, but not DVD player sales!

You can probably account for the drop in PC sales by the growing popularity of consoles. But I doubt the drop in PC sales is really dramatic, particularly if they're not taking into account MMORPGS. These babies are making tons of cash. Just ask Blizzard, you'll see.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by nostromo


I don't take Brad as gospel either, but he made some convincing points. And I think he's right when he's says that:



That is also a real issue.

I haven't seen the statistics you're talking about, but are the numbers that dramatic? You know the saying: there are lies, damn lies and statistics. For example, you probably heard of the numbers according to which the game industry is now making more money than the movie industry. Well, that's bull. These numbers take into account console sales, but not DVD player sales!

You can probably account for the drop in PC sales by the growing popularity of consoles. But I doubt the drop in PC sales is really dramatic, particularly if they're not taking into account MMORPGS. These babies are making tons of cash. Just ask Blizzard, you'll see.

Posted at quartertothree.com

"I'm actually surprised it broke 1 billion this year. I knew they were way down the first half of the year. Guess the trio of Doom 3, Half Life 2, and World of Warcraft really helped. Here is the numbers I have for the past 10 years.

year/ total income / 1994 dollars
1994 ~ 966 million 966 million
1995 ~1.4 billion 1.36 billion
1996 1.7 billion 1.6 billion
1997 1.8 billion 1.66 billion
1998 1.8 billion 1.64 billion
1999 1.9 billion 1.73 billion
2000 ~1.6 billion 1.38 billion
2001 1.75 billion 1.47 billion
2002 1.4 billion 1.15 billion
2003 1.2 billion 959 million
2004 1.08 billion 791 million

Also don't forget the average cost of game development has grown from 1 million to 10 million. Though some AAA have 30 million + budgets.

There isn't a way to paint a pretty picture.

refs: (some dead links)

http://news.com.com/2009-1001-228291-2.html

http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue43/overview.html

http://www.gamesdomain.com/gdreview/e398/idsa.html

http://www.idsa.com/releases/4-21-2000.html

http://www.pcvsconsole.com/news/news.php?nid=1159&filter=4

http://www.tdctrade.com/mne/toy/020302.htm

http://www.digitalgamedeveloper.com/2003/01_jan/news/dlidsa12803.htm

http://press.releases.filefront.com/25

http://www.npdtechworld.com/techServlet?nextpage=pr_body_it.html&content_id=720

http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue43/march.html

http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/10/commentary/game_over/column_gaming/

http://www.newsengin.com/neFreeTools...=30&Expand=1#1"

So is there evidence that the number of games released (by major publishers?) is increasing? As far as I can tell the driver is the decline in sales (even if the above numbers dont capture online sales, and there is substantial MMORPG revenue, i think sales are down) and the number of games published simply hasnt declined fast enough to match. Thats NOT a growth formula.

[lord of the mark]

"Selling 30,000 copies of an indie game is a big hit. "

Can you get shelf space in brick and mortar retailers with that? can you afford to make games if you sell through b&m retailers at that sales? If you get less than $20 a sale (the distribution chain) thats less than $600k. Thats a pretty tight budget even for an indie, IIUC. Brad is I think assuming A. Online distribution only and B. TBS kind of game. Not sure if a Troika type game could be produced that way.

[Nostromo]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

year/ total income / 1994 dollars
1994 ~ 966 million 966 million
1995 ~1.4 billion 1.36 billion
1996 1.7 billion 1.6 billion
1997 1.8 billion 1.66 billion
1998 1.8 billion 1.64 billion
1999 1.9 billion 1.73 billion
2000 ~1.6 billion 1.38 billion
2001 1.75 billion 1.47 billion
2002 1.4 billion 1.15 billion
2003 1.2 billion 959 million
2004 1.08 billion 791 million

(...)

There isn't a way to paint a pretty picture.

So is there evidence that the number of games released (by major publishers?) is increasing? As far as I can tell the driver is the decline in sales (even if the above numbers dont capture online sales, and there is substantial MMORPG revenue, i think sales are down) and the number of games published simply hasnt declined fast enough to match. Thats NOT a growth formula.

I never denied that PC game sales were down. Otoh, I'm sure that if you take into account online sales and the substantial MMORPG revenue, the drop wouldn't be that sharp. And, if you ask me, not taking into account MMORPGs is a major oversight. And why are overall PC game sales down? Like I said, one reason is probably the competition from the consoles.

Given your numbers, no, there's no evidence that the number of games released is increasing. But that's beside the point. The fact remains that there are too much games on the market right now. It probably doesn't affect overall PC sales, but it certainly affects the sales of particular titles, and hence can affect those who made those titles. Competition is not always good: the great games can get lost in the sea of mediocre ones.

So my point remains: the PC game market isn't dying, it's consolidating. Lets just hope it's consolidating in the right direction.

[Nostromo]

Not sure if a Troika type game could be produced that way.

Certainly not Vampires: bloodlines. It's a AAA title. Licensing the source engine must have been expensive, too.

[Grumbold]

I think its true that the number of games released is increasing, across all gaming platforms. The quantity being released purely for the PC is not. Gamers like me end up paying the equivalent of four new AAA titles per year in online gaming fees to get some half-decent RPG action because they don't release enough solo games to keep us entertained, and when they do you find the plot has been compressed to meet a deadline, like KotOR2.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by nostromo


I never denied that PC game sales were down. Otoh, I'm sure that if you take into account online sales and the substantial MMORPG revenue, the drop wouldn't be that sharp. And, if you ask me, not taking into account MMORPGs is a major oversight. And why are overall PC game sales down? Like I said, one reason is probably the competition from the consoles.

Given your numbers, no, there's no evidence that the number of games released is increasing. But that's beside the point. The fact remains that there are too much games on the market right now. It probably doesn't affect overall PC sales, but it certainly affects the sales of particular titles, and hence can affect those who made those titles. Competition is not always good: the great games can get lost in the sea of mediocre ones.

So my point remains: the PC game market isn't dying, it's consolidating. Lets just hope it's consolidating in the right direction.

well yes, its largely consoles I suppose. That market is still growing. The impact of that on PC games is debatable. The PC death spiral argument is that fewer games are sold, fewer titles released, developers shift to consolers, retailers allocate less shelf space and some decide to drop the category, and eventually all PC sales are online. With resultant lack of exposure and thus no new PC gamers - much as happened with board war games in the early '80s.

I dont see that quite happening - for one its possible to get buzz on the net, in a way that wasnt possible in the '80s. Secondly PC like consoles like the x box have an interesting efffect - they create games that are easily ported to PC, thus increasing PC title, and they create a market for ports of games originally designed for PC, thus adding revenue for firms that design for PC. I think the PC decline will bottom out, if it hasnt already done so (given MMORPGs and online sales)

[LDiCesare]

Secondly PC like consoles like the x box have an interesting efffect - they create games that are easily ported to PC, thus increasing PC title, and they create a market for ports of games originally designed for PC, thus adding revenue for firms that design for PC.

I am not sure you can easily port a PC game to console, because the controls are different. No keyboard, no mouse. I do not like the feel of games developped for consoles when I play them on PC (Morrowind, KotoR) because it's so "unnatural", and the mouse is useless. A game developped with mouse and keyboard in mind may become unplayable with console controls or at least feel awkward.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by LDiCesare

I am not sure you can easily port a PC game to console, because the controls are different.

wasnt The Sims ported to console? and a big seller on, i think its PS2? How did they handle the controls, I wonder?

and similarly GTA series are big sellers on PC's, and I think KOTOR was too.

[Nostromo]

I am not sure you can easily port a PC game to console, because the controls are different. No keyboard, no mouse. I do not like the feel of games developped for consoles when I play them on PC (Morrowind, KotoR) because it's so "unnatural", and the mouse is useless. A game developped with mouse and keyboard in mind may become unplayable with console controls or at least feel awkward.

Yes, both have different controllers, and this could be an issue. But not necessarilly so. Take Morrowind, for example. It's a PC game that was brilliantly ported to the Xbox.

[Nostromo]

Like Will Wright pointed out recently, the PC game industry should also stop making games exclusively for hardcore gamers, who represent a microscopic share of the market, and start making games that most people actually want to play, games like The Sims for example. I don't like The Sims, but it's undeniable: tons of people love it, and that's why it's the biggest hit in PC history.

[Grumbold]

The problem with that is accurately predicting what a modern audience actually want. Civ remains a pretty strong success story, but nobody really succeeded in making other great TBS titles on the strength of it. The Sims has a great mass appeal, but how do you follow on from it except by making a Sims clone?

All they can do is try to make games they think are fun and run with it if it turns out successful. The Total War series would be a good case in point. Personally I prefer that approach a lot more than the other way they do it: buying the rights to a popular movie IP and then flounder around trying to make a cash cow.

[LDiCesare]

Take Morrowind, for example. It's a PC game that was brilliantly ported to the Xbox.

It was developped for both platforms at once, so it's also a console game ported to PC, and had been designed . And I think the controls for the PC version of this game are quite clunky, but that may be due to my dislike of first person games rather than the port itself.

[Dis]

Morrowind has weird interface issues with the inventory. Those would be made even more weird on a console. But I guess they have to be that way since consoles have no keyboard.

It would explain why to make a potion you have to go into your inventory, click the mortar and pestle set move it over your paper doll picture, and then release it. Instead of something simple like pressing the P key .

I suppose it is a console game. It just seems more complicated than most console games. Most console games are linear and the rules easy to grasp.

[lord of the mark]

Phil Steinmeyer, source of the PC data quoted above has this for online game revenue:


"2004 Revenue Breakdown:
Advertising: $248 Million
Pay-per-play $217 Million
Casual Game Subscriptions: $55 Million
Casual Game Downloads: $174 Million
MMORPG Subscriptions: $455 Million
Games On Demand: $38 Million

(Note, Screen Digest, the source of this info, defines pay-per-play as games where users pay to enter skill-based games tournaments to compete for cash and other prizes.)

Sources:

http://www.screendigest.com/publications/reports/games/online_gaming_markets_to_2007/press_releases_08_06_2004/view

http://www.screendigest.com/publicat...FB2/sample.pdf"


Note, that seems to exclude online purchase delivered by direct mail (EG buying something from Amazon, who send it via FedEx)


$455 million for MMORPGs !!!!! Equal to half the entire US PC sales market - granted the MMORPG figure is global, but still - thats a huge market.