Disaster Model v1.1

[Lord God Jinnai]

Well hurricanes use both, but the main control mechanism for their paths is the ocean currents. They tend to seek out warm water.

[alms66]

Richard,

An example would help here, I think I know what you're saying but I'm not positive.

LGJ,

I don't know where u live, but I live in Louisiana, a hurricane "hotspot", therefore I kinda watch these things. And while water is a factor, it's more in the creation and strengthening, not where the hurricane will ultimately hit. The main driving force in it's final destination is the surrounding weather or pressures, the highs and Lows, I remember one hurricane (can't remember the exact name) that lingered in the same spot for a week because of a high that was positioned over LA, but when the high was replaced by a low, it moved in quick. But since we don't have that in the game, ocean currents are probably a good way to go, though they tend to travel in a North westerly direction - the hurricanes in this hemisphere tend to form off the coast of Africa as tropical depressions, then move across the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico following the Gulf stream (so you're right about ocean currents here, but not in final destination ), though in recent years some have hit much higher on the Atlantic coast (possibly a global warming thing, some predict). I really don't know about those in the Eastern Hemisphere, except they form in the Pacific and hit southeastern Asia, so they seem to follow the same Northwesterly pattern.

[alms66]

LGJ, actually .01% is realistic, actually more than realistic. Most hurricanes currently in the U.S. kill less than 20 people, which is why I opted for 0%, though it is more than dependant on meteorology, I figured basing it on that would be the easiest way to go, except that I remember now, with the tech system I can base it off of any number of techs of any value I choose, so I'll probably do something like that, several techs of relatively high levels equals 0% casualties.

And, like I said, isn't that the people's choice whether or not to invest in more R&D of disaster-preventing techs? After all the people will have a choice in what they devolop right?, it won't be simple you do more of this you do more RP's in that right?

BTW, Richard,

Your post on July 27 2000, is what I meant by a good climate (ecology) model, and good disaster model working together, could create better results than a disaster model alone.

And I just watched a show on discovery channel about hurricanes which stated that wind is the driving force on where they go, I thought it was oceans, just like you LGJ, but maybe we were wrong. Although the point I mentioned about highs and lows still applies, it is mute from the Clash standpoint, so Richard may be right in using wind vectors instead of ocean currents.

[Lord God Jinnai]

quote: LGJ, actually .01% is realistic, actually more than realistic. Most hurricanes currently in the U.S. kill less than 20 people, which is why I opted for 0%, though it is more than dependant on meteorology, I figured basing it on that would be the easiest way to go, except that I remember now, with the tech system I can base it off of any number of techs of any value I choose, so I'll probably do something like that, several techs of relatively high levels equals 0% casualties.

See the problem there is the tech levels would haveto be higher than even they are now....well maybe not for huricanes...most damage today in industrial nations is to property damage.

quote: And, like I said, isn't that the people's choice whether or not to invest in more R&D of disaster-preventing techs? After all the people will have a choice in what they devolop right?, it won't be simple you do more of this you do more RP's in that right?

Yes and no...You see it is partly there concern, but because the government wants to see as it might be helping out its citizens it will do R&D also for prevention.

quote: And I just watched a show on discovery channel about hurricanes which stated that wind is the driving force on where they go, I thought it was oceans, just like you LGJ, but maybe we were wrong. Although the point I mentioned about highs and lows still applies, it is mute from the Clash standpoint, so Richard may be right in using wind vectors instead of ocean currents.

How old was that show? They sometimes show programs a few years old and this was only discovered...proved last year.

[Richard Bruns]

Version three of the Ecology model will take longer than I thought. In addition to the changes I will make for the disaster model cooperation, there are the following issues to be worked out:

Month Based ecology model that includes seasonal variations (required because the game turns will last less than a year)

Lake and ocean farming

Increased farm sites with tech level

Swamp/Forest clearing system

Revised Water and Land calculations

Also, I will be switching to an object oriented model, which will take some more time to work out. This is especially true because I am in the middle of learning OO design techniques. So expect it to take a few more weeks, and I apologise in advance for the delay.
[This message has been edited by Richard Bruns (edited August 13, 2000).]

[alms66]

1. the tech levels wouldn't need to be higher than today's. Like I said currently, and as far back as I can remember, no hurricane has killed more than 50 people, but then again I'm just over 20 yrs old.

2. I don't know how old the show was, but it played only a few days ago, and I've never seen it before, which means it's probably fairly new, because when I do watch TV, I usually watch the discovery channel or TLC

[Lord God Jinnai]

1. Well the thing is there is 3 reasons for this, 1 is the weather forcasting, but the major reason is good transportation system we have and good orgainizations (moreso than other places) of getting people out. If it weren't for highways, things would proabably be differnt. So you haveto remeber there are many factors in there.

2. Check that out if you can, that is important because i heard on another TLC program last year that they had recently gotten enough proof to 'prove that myth' wrong. This doesn't mean wind currents don't affect them, but for the most parts it doesn't. They use this from several sources. They say that hurricanes have typically gone completely differnt directions from wind currents after forming because they seem to follow the warm waters closely.

[alms66]

1. I know, and eventually I'll get around to getting all the little variables in there.

2. I'll look into it, and let you know what I find.

[Whitemage]

This looks like a good model, but keep in mind its not essential.

Global warming: I favor the idea of randomly determining a general trend (such as warming/cooling) that will shape the basic patterns. More miner results can be random(though most should be bad; you don’t want players wanting global warming!).

[Lord God Jinnai]

quote: Originally posted by Whitemage on 11-24-2000 03:40 PM This looks like a good model, but keep in mind its not essential. Global warming: I favor the idea of randomly determining a general trend (such as warming/cooling) that will shape the basic patterns. More miner results can be random(though most should be bad; you don’t want players wanting global warming!).

I disagree with your first point and pretty much agree with your second point.

1> I haveto disagree with this because almost every model has a reason to be implimented, even if it is only on the most basic level. Disasters are there for a reason. Their generally random events that the player deals with and those that have more patterns and are more active (such as landslides in Japan, tornadoes in the midwest, volcanic eruptions along the pacific) force societies to evolve to deal with those problems or perish.

2> I have little argument here except there should be some basis for picking the type of trend over another rather than being 100% random.

[The Cid]

Back to landslides

Hi there,

I have read the earlier threads and I am under the impression that landslides will not be considered. If the reason is only gameplay considerations I have nothing to say about that, but I just want to point out that landslides are the main cause of loss of life and property damage in the world, every year and that has been true for all the history of mankind. Design codes are very likely to change in the next few years to reflect this, because of the attention brought to the subject recently.

One of the reasons that is so often overlooked is that landslides are usually overshadowed by their triggering factors... earthquakes, volcanoes, heavy rains, floods etc... Just think of the eruption of the "Nevado del Ruiz" in South America some years ago... most of the deaths and damage were due to the mudflows triggered by the eruption.

Another thing to remember is that landslides do not only occure in hilly terrains on land... most of them occur underwater and may actually be the direct cause of most tsunamis (although they may themselves be triggered by earthquakes and eruptions). The Egyptian cities they found submerged on the coast of the Nile delta last year most likely sunk because of some earthquake induced landslide (river deltas of very loose saturated sediments would be very succeptible to this).

And let us not forget that huge underwater landslides happen periodicaly near Hawai and bring huge tidal waves to devastate the western coast of America. Although this has not happened yet in documented history, the threat is always there... and it might be very much funt to model that in Clash

Anyways, I just thought I would add my two cents worth on this. If you do decide to model it, you can count on my to hunt down info to get a decent modelling withing game playability limits.

[The Cid]

About Floods

Hi again,

I'm new to the world of Clash so I'm trying to get up to speed on the overall picture and hopefully I'll be able to be more than a nuisace to you. I just LOVE the work you have done so far.

Anyways, I was wondering if the Flood disasters will be affected by urbanisation, or in terms of the models, the amount of infrastructures present in an area. In real-life urbanisation will increase the impact of flodds since more water will go the river at a given time due to the combined effect of the lower retardation offered by the "smoother" surfaces and the lower absorbtion of the water by the ground. The probability of floods might also be increased since smaller rainfalls that would not cause floods in a natural environment would now create small ones.

If you are interested in modelling this (floods are point events and I don't think it would be too demanding computationally speaking) it might be nice to used a simplified version of the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) method of estimating ground infiltration to evaluate the impact of urbanisation on floods. It is a simple model that essentially works with multipliers on rainfall data based on a weighed average of ground usage.

Anyways, if this sounds interesting, just let me know and we can see how to apply it.

[Simon Loverix]

Hi Cid! Be welcome.

Toubabo_Koomi is Disaster model duke currently, but he has a busy real life.. Have a look at the relevant threads (these would be 'Terrain' and 'Ecology, Climate, Terrain, Pollution') and you can make your own specific proposal, keeping in mind what's in the models so far. You'll get a response.

(I'm summarizing the 'Ecology, Climate, Terrain, Pollution' thread and when that model is ready, it will be posted. Much of it is relevant to disasters.. )

[The Cid]

Thank you,


Will do. I just wanted to know how the general idea sounded to you guys before I started giving more detail.

I've been reading a lot in the last couple of days but I'll do a few more passes to make sure I'm not just repeating someone else's idea in another form (although it is not very easy, you guys have been very productive both in terms of ideas and in the amount of posts to browse through )

Julio Ángel

[Simon Loverix]

So far there's isn't a water rating for squares (only in the map generation), but I don't know yet if it is necessary to keep it during the whole game. There is a water type, however, going from ice cap over lake, sea and ocean to river and wetland.

Groundwater is also recorded as a simple mineral reserve.
I was also thinking of a total amount of water on the planet to base map generation on, but nothing irrevocable of course.