Poly Fantasy Golf 2015

[-Jrabbit]

Going into Sunday, Ming stands tied for 2nd, 2 points behind the leader.



The teams I checked are all very similar. Maybe this is the time to break out a Willett for the win...

[Skyfish]

Very nice!

[Berzerker]

congrats Ming...with Rah close behind

The Fish is #48

[-Jrabbit]

One more week for Winter session -- need a good comeback, Skyfish. We're rooting for you, man!

[Skyfish]

Keegan Bradley just killed me on that last day with his +5

Still Top 50 but barely...and I dont think this is a week where one can make great strides, I just need to play defence and I should be OK

[Skyfish]

Argh... :shout:

**** it, am going for broke this week, I just hate so much playing defence.

Today is such a case where my instincts, and research! are telling me to go against some of the guys being seen as Favorites this week.

Its a terrible position because with some of them I am down on Starts and I am pretty sure they will not get a Top 3...
However if they do, and most ppl have them in their line-up, am completely ****ed and bye bye Top 50

Still major question marks in my line-up right now, I think I will post the guys I am thinking will not win tomorrow around first tee times.

PS: Remember only Adam Scott won as a favorite here and it was on a different lay-out and at a different date

[-Jrabbit]

I like it!

[rah]

I always argued this type of thing with Tony and he was a firm believer in "playing defense";
I usually disagreed but he usually kicked my ass.
But good luck. GO FOR IT.

[Ming]

Do what you think will get you the points. That's what this is all about

Either way, congrats on the Winter Season. You've made us proud.

[Skyfish]

Well thank you so much guys! Really appreciate your kind support, an *you* are making me proud actually
After 10 years of Fantasy Golf, was bound to get 1 lucky segment, am sure you will get one too soon!

I always argued this type of thing with Tony and he was a firm believer in "playing defense";

You know what?
He was right of course, and that's something I've learned from him too... So I actually turned the Risk/Reward factor down a notch this week, after all this season is in Tony's honour, it would be foolish not to

Main reasons I did - sorry for the long blurb but I felt like sharing this week - and we can all laugh at my "famous last words" next week:

1- I went for ****in' Furyk instead of Matt Jones
Am really getting tired of Furyk, the embodiment of "Playing Defense", I just don't see him winning again...and I don't feel him this week, but that's based on my research: I believe Distance Off the Tee will be a major factor this week because the Trade winds are reversed (Wind will come from North instead of South) which means holes that are longer and traditionally play down wind, will play even longer and into the wind. Against their design. This will favour the longer hitters off the tee, but most of all, it will play against the shorter hitters like Na and Furyk. Admittedly I am hedging this bet with Zack - but he at least comes red hot instead of an MC...And when Zack gets hots, he's streaky.

2- I strongly believe Jordan Spieth will have a disappointing week for 3 reasons - however I still picked him despite my low starts on him, thats defense for you:
1) he comes of a Win and I hate to pick guys coming off Wins even with a rest week in between (last time Jordan won he went 44th and MC afterwards)
2) This is not a course which particularly suits his eye, the backdoor 10th place last year is his only good result amongst T41st and an MC...
3) The Home State buzz actually means added pressure for him and he's shown before that psychology is his main adversary: he puts too mcuh pressure on himself, this week he will want to reward the fans and family present, and then starts getting mad at himself when he misses shots. This will not be helped this week by the wind factor which will get to the younger players and help the grinders (which he's not!)

So yeah call me crazy but I just don't feel Jordan this week, the unanimous #1 across the board.
I am hedging this with Ryan Palmer though who, despite being a great Wind player and a home favorite too -and with good form, has really not played this course well (56th, 15th, 32nd, MC). Again it doesn't "fit his eye" and I strongly believe in that being a success factor for those guys...Palmer also comes out #1 in my Stat profile this week, this makes almost impossible not to pick: 7th in DD, 9th in SG T2G, 4th in P4 Avg, 23rd in P5 Avg. Very impressive.

3) Other "defensive" plays: Kuchar and Walker, actually I can't even get my head round to picking Kooch, he's on a downward slope, he's 151st in distance off the tee this year and not great on Strokes Gained Tee to Green, which for me will be vital here. Also previous winners have won without great short games which is where Kooch compensates.
Walker I have to admit does fit the stat profile and so I will pick him instead of Kooch but he's been really cold lately so I would prefer going for a Daniel Berger: 1 of only 4 players in the field ranked in the top 45 for Driving Distance, P4/P5 Scoring & SG Tee to Green which are all the most important stats this week or a even a James Hahn (good course history, good stat fit, but oh wait...he's coming off a win) for the heck of it...

4) Not going for Matt Jones: everybody is focused on next week's Houston Open when thinking of Matt Jones because of the streak of defensive Wins this year which is a complete coincidence in my eyes... However he is really trending very strongly right now and his game is a good stat fit this week: 1 of only 2 players to come in with 3 consecutive top 15s. Also 7th in both SG Tee to Green & SG Putting last week.

5) Finally in Group C: a lot of focus on Brendon Todd out there but don't feel TPC SA is the best fit for him despite his T6 last year, plus his distance off the tee worries me. Still I could not convince myself to go for Kevin Na, a very popular pick, again DD, less focus on short game, and the infamous 16 at the 9th a few years back the main reasons. But the main reason was that I like Brendan Steele more: he is 12th in DD, 15th in SG T2G and 8th in P4 avg, so very strong stat fit plus good form and decent history.
So the defensive play for me here is Martin Laird, who will be a popular pick, but, fitting with the scenario of a complete flyer winning here (as in 3 times out of 4 here) I would love to go for guys like Jason Kokrak who is 13th in Driving Distance, 30th in P4 Avg & 12th in P5 Avg. 7th & 6th in his last two starts. And finished 15th at the '13 - he is also showing improvements on putting which is always his nemesis. Or even better a Shawn Stefani who is 30th in P4 Avg & 8th in P5 Avg and a Texas native...plus he was 5th in Strokes Gained Putting at Bay Hill which is great for him as his ball-striking is his strong side! And what about Summerhays? He's hot, and loves the course...

And now for my Bowdich Special, as you well know Bowditch won last year on the back of 3 MCs and a 37th at the Puerto Rico :crazy:
Kevin Chappell

Finally, the weather factor: some picks were motivated by the fact that I should have a 50/50 split between AM and PM starts for 2 days as Wind & Rain could be a huge factor. And looking at the forecast, it looks like Winds could be dying down in the PM so now all my Thursday starts are PM, will see if it was worth the gamble.

OK guys I'll stop the rant , good luck for this week!!

[rah]

Well so far today, you're looking really good. Much better than my picks.

[Berzerker]

didn't check 4 accuracy but someone on the golf ch said 78 was average out there

proj 54 will move you up the ranks

[Skyfish]

Well Charley took that down to 44 but I still gained 14 places

Boy those PM starts sure did work out for me

[-Jrabbit]

Nicely done!

[Skyfish]

For the fun I looked at the guys in front of me in the Rankings and there is something interesting going on:
1- Most guys have the same Group A and B: really looks like everyone has Furyk, Palmer, Zach and Spieth - then it's like half/half Kooch & Walker.
2- In Group C: almost everyone have Kevin Na (and to a lower degree Brendon Todd): this could be my major downfall if 1 ends up Top 3
3- However only 4 of us have Brendan Steele and a Top 3 for him (and not great scores by Na of course) would mean a huge jump in the rankings for me...possibly Top 10 (because right now the Top 4 teams are completely running away with it at this stage)

So there you go the writing is on the wall and as rah would say: The POX on me for JINXING it!!!