Help Hot Mustard win!

[Hot Mustard]

As mentioned in the 'Poly fantasy hockey pool thread, I'm making a [cautious] return to hockey pools, having agreed to participate in a simple office pool. I didn't realize quite how simple..

- points-based: one point for a goal, one point for an assist
- 12 participants
- snake-draft, 12 rounds (144 picks overall)
- 6 trades allowed, up until NHL deadline
- draft will be done during lunch hour next Monday or Tuesday

I got the first pick overall - not sure if that's a good thing, as there doesn't appear to be a clear favourite for top player.

Participants are mixed bag - I'd say 5 people know hockey and/or fantasy hockey pretty well, few middling folks, and 3 or 4 who are along for the ride and will probably be absentee drafters. If an absentee does not provide a list they use the TSN player ranking to determine pick.

In the next day or so I'll post a list. Any and all thoughts and feedback appreciated.

[-Jrabbit]

I think you should man up and do it yourself.

[Hot Mustard]

I'm going to provide a list for feedback, just priming folks right now. Having the first pick is big though, and anyone could offer thoughts on that while I work on my list.

Edit:
For those who don't remember me, I do know a thing or two about fantasy hockey, having won a few pools in the past, including a couple here (check the Record book). I've just been out of the game for a few years and I'm out of date on players/lines/teams as a result. I'm not looking to have my hand held here, just hoping people will offer their thoughts/opinions on my list.

[notyoueither]

OK.

[Hot Mustard]

Ok, so here's a list I've compiled. Have at it.

Player	Team	gp	P
Alex Ovechkin	WSH	77	100
Sidney Crosby	PIT	65	96
Martin St Louis	TBL	82	96
Steven Stamkos	TBL	82	95
Daniel Sedin	VAN	81	94
Henrik Sedin	VAN	82	93
Corey Perry	ANA	80	86
Nicklas Backstrom	WSH	80	84
Ryan Getzlaf	ANA	73	83
Anze Kopitar	LAK	80	83
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	73	82
Brad Richards	NYR	76	80
Joe Thornton	SJS	81	80
Patrick Kane	CHI	80	79
Jarome Iginla	CGY	82	78
Pavel Datsyuk	DET	77	78
Matt Duchene	COL	81	78
Jonathan Toews	CHI	80	78
John Tavares	NYI	80	76
Henrik Zetterberg	DET	77	76
Zach Parise	NJD	81	76
Eric Staal	CAR	79	75
Bobby Ryan	ANA	80	74
Rick Nash	CBJ	77	74
Ilya Kovalchuk	NJD	79	74
Claude Giroux	PHI	82	73
Patrick Marleau	SJS	82	72
Derek Roy	BUF	76	69
Patrick Sharp	CHI	76	69
Jeff Carter	CBJ	79	69
Paul Stastny	COL	77	69
Dany Heatley	MIN	81	68
Marian Gaborik	NYR	71	68
Vincent Lecavalier	TBL	76	68
Thomas Vanek	BUF	77	68
Loui Eriksson	DAL	80	68
Martin Havlat	SJS	76	68
Jeff Skinner	CAR	80	67
Jason Spezza	OTT	70	67
Alexander Semin	WSH	69	67
Joe Pavelski	SJS	74	66
Mike Richards	LAK	81	66
Mikko Koivu	MIN	76	66
David Krejci	BOS	78	65
Ryan Kesler	VAN	79	64
Danny Briere	PHI	75	64
Marian Hossa	CHI	71	63
Mike Ribeiro	DAL	79	63
Tomas Plekanec	MTL	78	63
Phil Kessel	TOR	77	63
Alex Tanguay	CGY	77	62
Ryane Clowe	SJS	78	61
Taylor Hall	EDM	78	61
Michael Cammalleri	MTL	74	60
Logan Couture	SJS	80	60
Chris Stewart	STL	74	59
Jamie Benn	DAL	77	59
Jason Pominville	BUF	79	59
Ray Whitney	PHX	79	58
Patrice Bergeron	BOS	77	58
Patrik Elias	NJD	76	58
David Backes	STL	81	58
Jaromir Jagr	PHI	80	58
Mike Green	WSH	74	58
Ales Hemsky	EDM	67	57
Shane Doan	PHX	79	57
Johan Franzen	DET	73	57
Milan Hejduk	COL	73	57
Jordan Staal	PIT	79	56
Milan Lucic	BOS	75	56
Kris Letang	PIT	79	56
Dustin Brown	LAK	82	55
Keith Yandle	PHX	81	55
Andy McDonald	STL	71	55
Antoine Vermette	CBJ	82	55
Alexandre Burrows	VAN	79	55
James van Riemsdyk	PHI	78	55
Jakub Voracek	PHI	81	54
Lubomir Visnovsky	ANA	74	54
Duncan Keith	CHI	82	54
Jordan Eberle	EDM	77	54
Tyler Ennis	BUF	80	54
Justin Williams	LAK	70	53
RJ Umberger	CBJ	82	53
Nathan Horton	BOS	72	53
Brooks Laich	WSH	81	53
Ryan Callahan	NYR	73	53
Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	82	53
Clarke MacArthur	TOR	80	53
Brad Boyes	BUF	82	52
Martin Erat	NSH	71	52
Tobias Enstrom	WPG	79	52
Mikhail Grabovski	TOR	76	52
Chris Kunitz	PIT	72	52
Nikolai Kulemin	TOR	80	52
Evander Kane	WPG	77	52
Kyle Okposo	NYI	74	51
Bryan Little	WPG	79	51
Matt Moulson	NYI	82	51
Michael Grabner	NYI	77	51
Dan Boyle	SJS	76	51
Travis Zajac	NJD	73	51
Olli Jokinen	CGY	80	51
Drew Stafford	BUF	73	51
Andrew Ladd	WPG	81	51
Stephen Weiss	FLA	77	51
Brenden Morrow	DAL	74	51
Tomas Fleischmann	FLA	70	51
Patric Hornqvist	NSH	79	50
Brandon Dubinsky	NYR	75	50
Rene Bourque	CGY	76	50
Drew Doughty	LAK	80	50
Tuomo Ruutu	CAR	75	50
T.J. Oshie	STL	71	50
Scott Hartnell	PHI	82	49
Jussi Jokinen	CAR	73	49
Radim Vrbata	PHX	80	49
Alex Pietrangelo	STL	79	48
Alexander Steen	STL	74	48
Christian Ehrhoff	BUF	80	48
Blake Wheeler	WPG	81	48
Shea Weber	NSH	81	48
Ryan Malone	TBL	67	48
Ville Leino	BUF	76	48
Artem Anisimov	NYR	82	47
Zdeno Chara	BOS	80	47
Kris Versteeg	FLA	79	47
Brian Gionta	MTL	77	47
James Neal	PIT	79	47
P.K. Subban	MTL	79	47
Derick Brassard	CBJ	75	47
Tim Connolly	TOR	66	47
Erik Karlsson	OTT	76	46
David Booth	FLA	75	46
Derek Stepan	NYR	80	46
Nik Antropov	WPG	75	46
James Wisniewski	CBJ	73	46
Michael Frolik	CHI	81	46
Daniel Alfredsson	OTT	68	46
Scott Gomez	MTL	80	46
Tomas Kaberle	CAR	80	46
Frans Nielsen	NYI	73	46
John-Michael Liles	TOR	75	46
Erik Cole	MON	73	46
Andrei Markov	MTL	71	45
Simon Gagne	LAK	69	45
Dustin Penner	LAK	81	45
Alexander Edler	VAN	76	45
Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	75	45

Edit: Added projected games played and points.

[notyoueither]

Move the twins up.
Getzlaf seems a bit high (I have him as a keeper)
Thornton could move up.
Zetterburg is a bit high (ditto, he's another keeper that has underwhelmed)
I'd take Couture over Hall in this format.
You think Jagr will be that low in scoring? Maybe. I guess you have to account for injuries and nap time.

[Hot Mustard]

I've edited the list to include my projected games played and points for them.

With first overall pick, the 1-10 ranking doesn't matter to me - just the top pick. So unless you'd take Daniel first, moving the twins up doesn't impact me. Same thing for Getzlag and Thornton, as with the snake draft there's no way either is left on my 2nd pick (24th overall).

I started my rankings by using three different point projections and weighing them - the three original point projections for Zetterberg were 83, 72, and 79. I ended up at 76 - too high?

Couture/Hall - this is precisely why I'm looking for feedback, as I'm just not familiar with either of these guys. They are separated only by a point in my rankings - basically no difference, but I'll move Couture above on your advice.

Jagr - his original projections were 66, 59 and 48 - so he got dragged down a bit by the last one. Can't say I'd be thrilled to have him on my team though.

[notyoueither]

I'd have to bet on an angry/hungry Russian as well.

re Zetterburg, that's about right. I've been disappointed with him as I drafted him after his 92 point season (5th overall). He was supposed to anchor my team, and it's true! That pick has weighed me down.

I think Jagr will do better than that.

[Flubber]

Have you drafted yet?

heres a team of mine


Rate my team-- the "no scoring " team
12 team H2H keeper league where we keep 3 players-- I came in as a replacement and did the draft

G A +/- PIM PPP SHP HiT and GS W GAA SV% SHO-

C H Sedin
C Riberio
C Krejci
W Clowe
W Callahan
W Purcell
W Prust
W Laich
W Clutterbuck
D Weber
DChara
D Goligoski
D Giordano
D Seabrook
D Robiadas
Util Ott
Util Nielson
Util Cooke
G Crawford
G Lehtonen

B G Pavelec
B G Neuvirth
B W Brunnett
B W Kennedy
B D Hamhuis

My take-- 7-5 stats balance so go for goalies-- unfortunately Crawford was the best one I had to keep . . . almost everyone kept a goalie and 3 got drafted before my first pick so I ended up with what you see. All young, all with potential-- My next observation was that Hits Pims and SHPs make up 3/7 of the offensive categories and with me having Sedin as a keeper a strategy to almost ignore goals was born

Could it work? I don't have a goalscorer worth talking about but am reasonably strong in ALL the other categories.

So what do you think? I wish my goalies were better but really had no opportunity and am hoping my result is ok-- On the wire are such notables as Budaj, Johnson, Greiss, Gustavsson and Labarbara--

So how did I do?

[notyoueither]

It may work well. Especially with PPP instead of seperate PP G and A.

[Hot Mustard]

That's a cool strategy, Flubber. Though I'm uncertain what it will mean for you as far as making trades (easier, more difficult).

My draft went ok I think - my team:

Alex Ovechkin
Matt Duchene
Eric Stall
Marian Gaborik
Paul Stastny
Tomas Plekanec
Taylor Hall
Tyler Ennis
Antoine Vermette
Kyle Okposo
Bryan Little
Tomas Fleischmann

I tried to keep to my list, and I wanted to rely less on my gut feelings. Wanted to pick a Jet towards the end - everyone was doing it at that point and there would have been none left worth mentioning in the 12th round.

[Flubber]

It may work well. Especially with PPP instead of seperate PP G and A.

The stats balance was the key--Add in another goals category and I would have been unwilling to try it.


Going into the draft I thought I might get a team that would almost NEVER win goals (Think maybe once a season on a fluke) and almost never lose Hits, PIM and win A and SHP like 75% of the time. It turned out there were two other teams that thought the way I did and a couple of more that scooped at least one PIMS/Hits guys relatively early.

So as it turns out there are 9 teams where based on past stats it should usually play out as planned. But there are two teams that are pretty rough and tumble as well. Against them, we match up pretty evenly on lots of categories. Of course if Matt Cooke continues his 164 goal scoring pace I'll take everything!! ( a SHG AND a PPG in one game!!!)


As always ultimate success will depend on my goalies-- IN a league where all the elite were gone, I managed to get what you see. I think they all have good potential-- If I could add a Miller or Lundqvist to the mix, I would think them excellent

Hot Mustard-- Trades are a very small consideration here compared to many leagues. My short experience with the other managers is that with only 3 keepers for next year, anyone seen as being in that group, is doubly and triply valued so the normal way of giving 2 good for one great just doesn't work since they are also looking at the keeper issue. Same with prospects-- Hall or Eberle may be great in the future but do they crack your top 3 if you have to drop Getzlaf to keep him?

I will say its fun though--- enjoying it more than ever!!

[notyoueither]

Not many people seem to be catching on to there being categories other than goals.