Apolyton Fantasy Football - Jaguar's DST League Draft

[snoopy369]

Joncha:
Quarterback AllStars
1. (12) Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB)
2. (17) Michael Turner (Atl - RB)
3. (40) Jahvid Best (Det - RB)
4. (45) Sam Bradford (StL - QB)
5. (68) Jay Cutler (Chi - QB)
6. (73) Jonathan Stewart (Car - RB)
7. (96) Jimmy Graham (NO - TE)
8. (101) Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
9. (124) Sidney Rice (Sea - WR)
10. (129) Donovan McNabb (Min - QB)
11. (152) Chad Henne (Mia - QB)
12. (157 Lance Moore (NO - WR )
13. (180) Steve Smith (Phi - WR)
14. (185) Garrett Hartley (NO - K)
15. (208) Miami (Mia - DEF)
16. (213) Jordan Shipley (Cin - WR)

QB: Well, this is the QB All-Stars isn't it. Not actually an all-star QB on the team, but a quartet of them, any of which can play usefully. Bradford will probably start, but Cutler will put up big numbers a few games this year, and McNabb is not done yet either. I foresee a trade coming later in the year...
RB: One of the best RB tandems in the game, Mendenhall-Turner-Best will score tons of points. Stewart is a great RB4 (many guess that he's comparable to DWill this year, who's a certain player's RB1...) and was a good value.
WR: The weakest point of this team, but not completely disastrous. Lance Moore has a lot of upside, particularly if Colston is hurt, and can score big any given sunday, and Sidney Rice may hook up with Tavaris Jackson a lot this year, if for no other reason than familiarity. TJ isn't going to be an all star QB, but Rice will find his catches. Steve Smith is more of a playoff play, and will have the potential to be very useful late in the season.
TE: Graham is this year's "sleeper" TE pick, in quotes because he's so hyped as a sleeper he's really no longer a sleeper. Not a top 5 TE talent, but good enough, though a bit of a reach at 7 IMO.
DEF: Pittsburgh D/ST will be a monster this year, especially as their schedule in weeks 15 and 16 is incredibly weak (Thanks, NFC West). They'll score a lot of points for Joncha.

Overall, this team is stronger than I expected it would be when I first sat down to review it. A bit of luck on the health front and one of [Bradford, Cutler] having a good season and Joncha could be among the league leaders.

Snoopy prediction: 9-4

[MRT144]

Time for short blurbs

1. Mountain Goats - Interesting stated strategy with QBs but the WRs are huge risks and limited upside.
2. Quarterback AllStars - Better make some moves because cmon, 4 QBs? Barely any talent at WR
3. Purple Drank - Weakness at TE and good depth at WR and RB but not huge breakout upside.
4. Berz - Foster will mostly have to carry the team at RB with a repeat performance as the options after him stunted. WRs are great but might have diminished numbers this year. Gates and Romo should stay healthy this year too.
5. Deviations - Love the WRs and QB but the RBs are 2nd rate. Ingram will be competing with at least 2 others for receptions and rushes.
6. Dallas Dwarf Tossers - Charles and megatron and witten are all top tier at their positions but Shonn Green is iffy, even if he is projected highly. Flacco is Flacco which is just ho hum and middle of the road.
7. Youth Rights Knights - Am super suspicious of RB picks as well as any Indy receiver without Peyton at the helm. Other than that, like Rodgers and the starting WRs
8. Calamatious Intent - Really like this team in terms of efficiency but I do not see Ryan Matthews as a good RB2. WRs look pretty good and Ochocinco could be bring this team up a bit.
9. Chester's Tailors - Grant's role is up in the air, Colston's knees are broken and Freemen is a 2nd tier QB. That said, the combo of Fitz and White could support this team through tough times.
10. I'm thinking RBs - Big weekly upside at RB with McFadden but also potential injury issues at RB. WRs are suspect, but could be servicable. Tebow is just ridiculous though.
11. The Flashtastics - Actually really like this team and think Law Firm will be a great flex option. Not sold on two Dallas offensive players or 2nd WR option though.
12. Spazz Monkeys - High Risk team if there ever was one. Vick might be amazing again so long as teams dont go up the midddle on them and force him to roll right. If Hillis doesn't bring it, then I don't see a 2nd option at RB being viable. Steve Smith will be a bad flex option or 2nd WR based on history and the distinct lack of QB in Carolina.
13. Savage Hammers - Lynch as a #2 back is not good. Johnson might start slowly if his contract dispute lingers on and on. Jennings and Wayne would usually be a great combo but without Peyton I think Wayne struggles. Stafford is an injury question too.
14. The Mighty Drizzle - Really think Bradshaw and Moreno could be a good and solid starting combo but after that I think some of the most suspect backs in the league, but Peyton is the big question mark. WR's average and don't like Garcon because of relation to Peyton.

[Sparrowhawk]

Fun read of the analysis Snoopy, MRT and Al B Sure, I look forward to more opinions on more teams.

I especially liked snoopy's predictions of 7-6 for both MRT and Slow, but MRT makes playoffs where Slow misses....what's the tiebreaker there?

/me

[MRT144]

Fun read of the analysis Snoopy, MRT and Al B Sure, I look forward to more opinions on more teams.

I especially liked snoopy's predictions of 7-6 for both MRT and Slow, but MRT makes playoffs where Slow misses....what's the tiebreaker there?

/me

Points accrued over the season.

[flash9286]

Do Me.
QB-Philip Rivers - QB - SD
WR- Percy Harvin - WR - MIN
WR-Miles Austin - WR - DAL
RB-Matt Forte - RB - CHI
RB-Felix Jones - RB - DA
TE-Owen Daniels - TE - HOU
Flex-BenJarvus Green-Ellis - RB - NE
K-Alex Henery-K-PHI
D/ST-New Orleans Saints - D/ST - NO

Bench
Danny Amendola- WR - STL
James Starks - RB - GB
Jordy Nelson - WR - GB
Cam Newton - QB - CAR
Jason Snelling - RB - ATL
Austin Pettis - WR - STL
LaRod Stephens-Howling - RB - ARI

[snoopy369]

Flash, of the perhaps optimal draft position:

QB-Philip Rivers - QB - SD
WR- Percy Harvin - WR - MIN
WR-Miles Austin - WR - DAL
RB-Matt Forte - RB - CHI
RB-Felix Jones - RB - DA
TE-Owen Daniels - TE - HOU
Flex-BenJarvus Green-Ellis - RB - NE
K-Alex Henery-K-PHI
D/ST-New Orleans Saints - D/ST - NO

Bench
Danny Amendola- WR - STL
James Starks - RB - GB
Jordy Nelson - WR - GB
Cam Newton - QB - CAR
Jason Snelling - RB - ATL
Austin Pettis - WR - STL
LaRod Stephens-Howling - RB - ARI

QB: Rivers, Newton. Solid all around, not only one of the top QBs (and may well be the top QB when it all shakes out), but Newton has looked strong so far in preseason (for all that's worth).
RB: Forte, Jones, BJGE, Snelling, Starks, LaRod Stephens-Howling. Other than cornering the market on length of name, this is also a fairly solid RB group for a PPR league. Not a top flight RB, but Forte and Jones should both perform well, and if Grant doesn't start, Starks will be a solid RB4. This won't be the #1 RB corps in the league, but it'll be in the top half.
WR: Harvin, Austin, Amendola, Nelson, Pettis. The top 2 are pretty good; Harvin won't be as good in DST as he is in IDP (no return yards), but he still likely will receive his share of catches and receiving yards, and he's the sort of guy McNabb will probably like. Amendola could have a lot of upside. Again, this isn't the top WR corps, but it'll be top half.
TE: Owen Daniels should be good for more points than he had last year, but he's probably not a top half TE.
D/ST: Not sure New Orleans is good enough to play as an only D/ST squad, but they're certainly not a bad team at all. Darren Sproles will help their return game not feel the loss of Reggie Bush, though he probably won't have as many touchdowns.

Overall, I think Flash has a non-flashy but likely to be underrated team. He doesn't really have any substantial weaknesses; whereas most teams are strong at RB but weak at WR, or the other way around, he really has solid players in both, plus one of the top QBs in the league. As long as the Bears offense doesn't implode (further), and Felix Jones has the season that everyone expects him to as primary RB for the 'Boys, Flash will finish near the top of the standings this year.

Snoopy's prediction: 9-4, possibly first overall in the regular season, makes the playoffs.

[snoopy369]

MRT, are those ranked in order of probable finish, or just at random?

[MRT144]

MRT, are those ranked in order of probable finish, or just at random?

ORder of how they appear on Yahoo's drop down list. If I had to give an order, that'd take me some time.

[MRT144]

Also, I'll be posting charts again with an extra one based on Optimal Score vs. Actual Score

[snoopy369]

Berz:

1. (1) Arian Foster (Hou - RB)
2. (28) Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR)
3. (29) Tony Romo (Dal - QB)
4. (56) Brandon Lloyd (Den - WR)
5. (57) Antonio Gates (SD - TE)
6. (84) Matt Cassel (KC - QB)
7. (85) Mike Tolbert (SD - RB)
8. (112) Rashad Jennings (Jac - RB)
9. (113) Chicago (Chi - DEF)
10. (140) Chris Cooley (Was - TE)
11. (141) Mike Sims-Walker (StL - WR)
12. (168) Delone Carter (Ind - RB)
13. (169) Nate Burleson (Det - WR)
14. (196) Jerome Simpson (Cin - WR)
15. (197) Lance Kendricks (StL - TE)
16. (224) Jason Hanson (Det - K)

QB - Romo is the bottom of the top tier, and a better regular season QB than postseason, Fantasy-wise. He might get Berz to the playoffs, but schedule is tough once you get there. But not a terrible weakness. Cassel is a decent backup, worth paying extra for given Romo's injury last year, but perhaps took the place of a legit RB2.
RB - Foster will do well this year, but after that Tolbert is the only playable RB, and that backfield is a big question mark. Huge weakness here, unless there are some major injuries at RB. I think he stretched to get backups, when he needed one more legit starter.
WR - Bowe at 2.14 is a bit of a stretch, given who was still there (Fitz, among others). KC's schedule is tougher this year, and Breaston may not help him much. Lloyd is a risky pick at WR as well; he's probably going to score a lot, and I've taken him myself at a similar spot, but he's only had the one good year... after that he's got a bunch of upside WRs as well, again nobody who's really startable unless things change on their respective teams.
TE - Gates is amazing, of course. Cooley was probably an unnecessary pick at 10.14; while Gates has an injury history, it's rather odd to pair an injury risk with an injury risk, even if Cooley is more likely to be good to go later than earlier. Necessitated a third TE late, which is going to hurt Berz's depth - that could've been another upside RB pick instead.
DEF - Bears D/ST will perform well as usual, somewhere between tier 1 and 2.

Overall, I think this team will need a lot of help to perform well. Berz does usually manage to find that help; he'll need to find another Mendenhall this year more than likely on the waiver wire in order to have a shot at the playoffs.

Snoopy prediction: 5-8, out of contention.

[snoopy369]

Jonny - Savage Hammers

1. (2) Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
2. (27) Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR)
3. (30) Greg Jennings (GB - WR)
4. (55) Marshawn Lynch (Sea - RB)
5. (58) Matthew Stafford (Det - QB)
6. (83) Kellen Winslow (TB - TE)
7. (86) Ryan Williams (Ari - RB)
8. (111) Plaxico Burress (NYJ - WR)
9. (114) Dallas (Dal - DEF)
10. (139) Jason Campbell (Oak - QB)
11. (142) Michael Bush (Oak - RB)
12. (167) Ricky Williams (Bal - RB)
13. (170) Jacoby Jones (Hou - WR)
14. (195) Josh Brown (StL - K)
15. (198) Javon Ringer (Ten - RB)
16. (223) Brent Celek (Phi - TE)

QB - Stafford for your QB1 takes a lot of guts, and adding Jason Campbell as your QB2 is probably too risky. Stafford is a fine QB2, a good choice to pair with a high-upside risky qB1, but not a safe choice for QB1. I'd have gone back to back QBs (see: Jaguar) if Stafford was my preference.
RB - Chris Johnson is a high upside pick, who's intelligently paired with Javon Ringer. If he suits up and plays, he'll be fine. Marshawn Lynch is not really a RB2, though, and the loss of Ryan Wililams leaves Michael Bush as RB3. CJ will have to shoulder the load, and leave Jonny hoping for 2009 again.
WR - Jennings and Wayne are legit talents at WR, and should do fine. After them are a couple of upside picks, which is reasonable except in that these guys are probably going to have to man the flex spot.
TE - Winslow and Celek are a good pair of TEs, though Winslow probably was a bit early (Celek may well even be the starter for this team eventually).
D/ST - Dallas is not all that good of a defense, and certainly not good enough to be a sole D/ST particularly in these settings. He'll need to figure out which RBs to drop for a second D/ST at some point soon.

Overall, this is a high risk/reward team, but probably doesn't have enough reward to balance the risk. I like making one or two risk/reward picks, but this team has about five - basically every starter is risk/reward, and that usually means you lose some of your bets. I also expect CJ to miss a few games, and Jonny'll be out of luck for those games, particularly as he won't have figured out the backup positions yet by that point.

Snoopy prediction: 4-9, and starting out 0-4.

[snoopy369]

Calamitous Intent (Guynemer)

1. (3) Adrian Peterson (Min - RB)
2. (26) Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)
3. (31) Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)
4. (54) Mike Williams (TB - WR)
5. (59) Mario Manningham (NYG - WR)
6. (82) Chad Ochocinco (NE - WR)
7. (87) Danny Woodhead (NE - RB)
8. (110) Marcedes Lewis (Jac - TE)
9. (115) San Francisco (SF - DEF)
10. (138) Matt Hasselbeck (Ten - QB)
11. (143) Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)
12. (166) Maurice Morris (Det - RB)
13. (171) Minnesota (Min - DEF)
14. (194) Zach Miller (Sea - TE)
15. (199) Rex Grossman (Was - QB)
16. (222) David Akers (SF - K)

QB - Matt Ryan isn't a top tier talent, but he's the top of the second tier. I wouldn't grab him in round 2, but he's certainly solid enough to carry a team. Hasselbeck is a reasonable quality backup with some upside, as he has some talent in TEN.
RB - Adrian Peterson is a solid back, and is one of the safest bets in fantasy. Ryan Matthews is a question mark, he might be very good and might be a bust. Depth beyond him is pretty sparse - Woodhead scores reasonably in PPR leagues, but probably isn't more than a flex/backup, so if Matthews bombs out he'll be a bit over his head at the RB2 slot.
WR - Guy's strength, with some very solid WR choices throughout. All four could start for many teams. Ochocinco is a good gamble for a team like this; he may well flame out, but then you've just lost a WR3, swap in Floyd and you're good; but he could be Randy Moss Reborn also.
TE - Reached a bit for Marcedes Lewis, every year he's supposed to be good and he's always just okay; TE is very deep this year (see: Zach Miller in 14th) and I don't think there was that much difference between the two really.
D/ST - San Fran is a good defense in a terrible division, and Minnesota has some good games, so this sounds to me like a good pair of defenses.

Overall - Guy has some talent, but also some significant question marks. His season will largely hinge on Ryan Matthews keeping at least 50% of the carries in SD, and either Ochocinco or Floyd putting in a big year. He's not going to be a bottom feeder, but I think he'll be on the outside looking in at playoff time. Last two games are against two other teams that are probably on the bubble for playoffs (Sloww, Ozzy), and perhaps one of them could bump the other two out for the last spot, but I'd bet against it.

Snoopy prediction: 7-6, misses playoffs.

[snoopy369]

The Mighty Drizzle (Duke)

1. (6) Peyton Manning (Ind - QB)
2. (23) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG - RB)
3. (34) Knowshon Moreno (Den - RB)
4. (51) Wes Welker (NE - WR)
5. (62) Brandon Marshall (Mia - WR)
6. (79) Pierre Garcon (Ind - WR)
7. (90) Visanthe Shiancoe (Min - TE)
8. (107) New England (NE - DEF)
9. (118) Mason Crosby (GB - K)
10. (135) Kyle Orton (Den - QB)
11. (146) Tashard Choice (Dal - RB)
12. (163) San Diego (SD - DEF)
13. (174) Anthony Fasano (Mia - TE)
14. (191) Jacquizz Rodgers (Atl - RB)
15. (202) Earl Bennett (Chi - WR)
16. (219) Adam Vinatieri (Ind - K)

QB - Peyton is a bit of a question mark to start with, but will be a reasonably solid QB overall. Orton is a good choice for backup as he has a reasonably high upside if Peyton gets hurt and misses time.
RB - Bradshaw may be good this year. Moreno has a big ? due to the new offensive system; he wasn't very effective under Josh McDaniels, but that may change with Fox. Unfortunately, Fox is known for being almost Shanahan-like with his RBs. Behind them are several big question marks; Choice may be the RB3, and Jacquizz is intriguing but not really playable barring significant injuries.
WR - Welker, Marshall, and Garcon should be a formidable set of WRs, though not sure how Welker fares in this format (not true PPR). Still, Duke won't have much to complain about performance wise from this set; Garcon is not a WR2 as some thought he would be, but at WR3 he's a good value.
TE - I don't understand Shiancoe, he'd have been available in the 14th. Fasano is also a questionable choice. I supsect there are waiver wire TEs that could improve this team.
D/ST - New England and San Diego are a good pair of teams for D/ST, as they both have plenty of easy games that lend well to playing matchups.

Overall - I think this team will win some games, but will be hurt by the lack of depth and the lack of top talent in the end.

Snoopy prediction: 5-8, out of the playoffs.

[snoopy369]

Spazz Monkeys (Spaced)

1. (8) Michael Vick (Phi - QB)
2. (21) Peyton Hillis (Cle - RB)
3. (36) LeGarrette Blount (TB - RB)
4. (49) Dez Bryant (Dal - WR)
5. (64) Jermichael Finley (GB - TE)
6. (77) Kenny Britt (Ten - WR)
7. (92) Mark Sanchez (NYJ - QB)
8. (105) New York (NYJ - DEF)
9. (120) Roy Helu (Was - RB)
10. (133) Steve Smith (Car - WR)
11. (148) DeMarco Murray (Dal - RB)
12. (161) Mike Williams (Sea - WR)
13. (176) Sebastian Janikowski (Oak - K)
14. (189) Kevin Walter (Hou - WR)
15. (204) Robert Meachem (NO - WR)
16. (217) Steve Breaston (KC - WR)

QB - Vick. Risk/reward here, though Vick probably isn't as good in this setup as the other 5 top QBs. I'd take Rivers over Vick any day in this scoring. Still, he could score a ton of points. Sanchez is a good backup, though I'm not sure I'd bother taking an early backup here; sure, Vick might get hurt, but when you pin your team on a guy like this, you might as well just gamble on him being healthy.
RB - I like Hillis more than most. The Browns have a good O-line, and some young talent that will be more successful this year than last. Also, he's young still, and not all that many miles on him. Good value. Blount is decent RB2 material. The lack of RB3 is largely why I wouldn't take Sanchez there.
WR - I'm not a Dez Bryant fan, but he's probably good value at 4.7. Bryant and Britt are a good one-two punch at WR, and Steve Smith CAR is probably reasonable at WR3, though I'm not sure I love the idea of using him as my flex. Some more quality WR choices round out this team; he can likely find someone to fill Flex if Steve Smith CAR loses a step this year, and possibly a RB trade with one of the WR poor teams down the road.
TE - Finley should be very good this year, if he can stay healthy.
DEF - The Jets have a lot of easy games this year, and I like that choice a lot. I am not a huge fan of starting just one DEF, given the price you pay for a top one, but NYJ might be worth it this year, with the NFC West for opponents.

Overall, I think this team will be one of the more volatile teams in the league. They may contend for the playoffs, or even a bye, but an injury or two and this team will go off the rails. I'm going to tentatively pencil them in to the last playoff spot, but that's really somewhat of a copout; similarly to Jaguar's team, it's probably more likely that they go 9-4 or 4-9 than 7-6.

Snoopy prediction: 7-6, plus or minus two and a half wins. Probably in the playoffs, on average.

[snoopy369]

I'm Thinking RBs

1. (14) Darren McFadden (Oak - RB)
2. (15) Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac - RB)
3. (42) Jeremy Maclin (Phi - WR)
4. (43) Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB)
5. (70) Austin Collie (Ind - WR)
6. (71) Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)
7. (98) C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB)
8. (99) Mike Thomas (Jac - WR)
9. (126) Braylon Edwards (SF - WR)
10. (127) Lee Evans (Bal - WR)
11. (154) Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle - WR)
12. (155) Danario Alexander (StL - WR)
13. (178) Tim Tebow (Den - QB)
14. (210) Jared Cook (Ten - TE)
15. (211) Carolina (Car - DEF)
16. (215) Dan Carpenter (Mia - K)

QB: Roeth will do well this year, and is one of the more underrated QBs in the league. A good pick at 4.1. However, he's also fairly injury prone given his playing style and weaker O-line than in past years, so waiting for QB2 until the 13th round was a mistake in a 14 team league. Even without the QB All-stars taking four, he'd have been hard up for a playable QB at that point.
RB: Did the best he could in the 14th slot, which is to get two fairly solid backs. DMF has a lot of upside if he doesn't get hurt, and MJD is very reliable. He'd better hope they don't get hurt though, as Spiller being the only other RB will be an issue; he's not startable in this league, given the lack of return yard points.
WR: Quantity over quality, though he does have good quality at most of the WR spots. Maclin was a reach at 3.14, but likely was a targetted player, and sometimes you have to reach a bit when you're on the edge. Among the other WRs, he'll likely find someone effective for WR2 and WR3; Santonio Holmes and Mike Thomas are my bets, but he's got plenty of options. I see a WR for RB trade coming, though you notice that's a bit of a trend here; he might not have the top quality needed unless one or two of the WRs really take off.
TE: Cook is probably not quite there yet this year; I'll take him in my dynasty league if I can, but in a non-keeper league I think he's a year or two out. Hasselbeck doesn't always use his TEs effectively, either...
D/ST: Waiting on D/ST in this league was a mistake, but ARI is making the best of it. They aren't the ARI of a few years ago though, and will give up a lot of points when playing outside their weak division. This isn't an ESPN standard league with low D/ST scoring, and he'll lose ground because of it.

Overall, I see this team again bringing up the rear, unless a couple of his WRs really break out, and someone like DMF really hits it big (CJ 2009 style). I don't see that as likely,and am projecting a finish appropriately.

Snoopy prediction: 4-9, bringing up the rear.