"NFL Football is Back!" 2011 Season Thread

[SlowwHand]

Right, Al.

[OzzyKP]

Knowing that I'm a big pessimist (realist) by nature, how hopeful should I be about the upcoming Lions season?

They seem to be a trendy wild card pick, and I just don't get why. Yes, the defensive line should be dominant. The back seven still sucks; the receivers consist of Megatron and any given warm body yanked off the street; the offensive line is mediocre on their best days; the quarterback is as likely to tear every ligament in his body as he is to throw a TD. What am I missing?

No Superbowl or playoffs (as some are suggesting), but I think they'll definitely improve this year. And... maaaybe, possibly, hopefully, have a winning season for once. So that's my official prediction. 9-7 this year. Then we flirt with playoffs next year.

[Donegeal]

The homefield advantage Atlanta had last year is not going to happen this year, so if you want the two teams from your list of big dogs that are going to fall to earth this year is Atlanta and Chicago leaving Detroit flirting with the playoffs this season.

[OzzyKP]

Last year the Lions were 6-10 and lost 4 of those games by 3 points or less. All while having a QB rotisserie all season. I think everyone believes the team has improved this off season, so that by itself should be able to pick up a few more points/wins. Assuming our Mr. Glass at QB can stay healthy... there is plenty of reason for optimism. Picking up 3-4 additional wins this season is definitely possible.

[Al B. Sure!]

Last year the Lions were 6-10 and lost 4 of those games by 3 points or less. All while having a QB rotisserie all season. I think everyone believes the team has improved this off season, so that by itself should be able to pick up a few more points/wins. Assuming our Mr. Glass at QB can stay healthy... there is plenty of reason for optimism. Picking up 3-4 additional wins this season is definitely possible.

Shaun Hill is a better QB than Stafford. Hill averaged 259 yards per start with a 62.4% completion percentage, throwing 16 TDs to 11 INTs in 10 starts.

To put that in perspective, in his first 10 games last season, Carson Palmer averaged 262 yards with a 60.9% completion percentage and 18 TDs with 13 INTs. Yes, Palmer had a rough year but if (relatively) shaky Palmer is the nearest statistical equivalent to Shaun Hill, that does bode well for Shaun Hill being a good enough QB.

On the flip side, what is so impressive about Stafford? His 212 yard 4 TD game against the terrible Redskins secondary that, the very next game, Mike Vick would completely decimate in about a quarter?

Sure, Stafford can improve and the team has enough talent. After all, he's played only 13 games in the same amount of time Sanchez played 36 but any of you who are too sure about Stafford being successful when healthy are lying to yourself. He's shown nothing so far.

Realistically, do you expect a healthy Stafford to be much more productive than Shaun Hill? Are we setting the bar so high that you expect Stafford to throw like Brees or Rodgers? If you think Stafford will be a significant improvement over Hill, that's basically what your expectations are saying.

Just because he cashes the biggest paycheck doesn't mean he's even the best QB on his team.

[SlowwHand]

That is the kind of post that makes it so hard to take you seriously.

[Al B. Sure!]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6823929/randy-moss-retire-13-seasons-153-touchdowns

Future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss has decided to retire rather than continue playing.

[Al B. Sure!]

Saw this article at ESPN about some new passer rating formula they've come up with:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/41811/how-to-identify-nfls-best-quarterbacks

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

The exact ratings weren't released but last year's QBs were ranked in tiers:

Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.

Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.

Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.

Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.

Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.

Poor: Derek Anderon, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

Interesting.

[duke o' york]

Gotta blame the GM, Angelo. They are way under the cap and a half-million apart on a 1-yr deal for Kreutz.
Monumentally stupid IMHO.

He hasn't signed anywhere yet, so cooler heads may still prevail. (Or maybe I'm just hoping...)

Are the Bears interested in making a signing with great prospects, because the Metrodome roof has been replaced after only one bad night following years of success! I think Soldier Field can get it back in the big time.

[-Jrabbit]

Looks like it's a done deal re Kreutz walking. He's talking possible retirement.

[Al B. Sure!]

What's with GM Jerry Angelo though?

"Come on, this isn't a wake. We're sad, but nobody died."

[-Jrabbit]

Just trying to minimize it. Frankly, the level of outrage in Chicago just isn't that high.

[Al B. Sure!]

Cris Carter breaks down Randy Moss' retirement:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6824245

Makes sense. He says Moss is a guy who jumps the gun. He sees something, makes a hasty and emotional decision, and goes with it. He says Moss is only willing to play for two teams (New England and the Jets) but wanted a long-term contract which neither team was willing to give him (NE giving Ochocinco a 3 year deal, Plaxico was willing to take a 1-year deal from the Jets). Carter notes that Moss has been training hard this offseason so it's not that Moss isn't physically prepared. He seems to think Moss' retirement won't stick.

Mark Schlereth isn't buying it either.

[MRT144]

Just trying to minimize it. Frankly, the level of outrage in Chicago just isn't that high.

Yeah, cause there were some idiots who blamed him for your issues on offense. The freaking center!

[-Jrabbit]

He's not what he once was, that's for sure. Strong locker room leader, but clearly declining player skills.
Amazingly penalty-prone for a center, especially the past couple years.