"NFL Football is Back!" 2011 Season Thread

[SlowwHand]

Takes 5 years. He needs to retire after this season, and that may just be a tie. Sayers is a special case though; but special case or not, he holds the record.

[Al B. Sure!]

Not watching tonight. Checked the stats a couple times during the game and it appears that Tebow was once again worthless untill the final minutes. Last time I looked, he had like 68 yds passing and 14 rushing when NYJ was driving for their last FG...

WTF is up with the Jets? They couldn't score an offensive TD against Denver?
Also, did Shonn Greene get injured? I assume so, since McKnight got 22 touches.

1-4 with Orton. 4-1 with Tebow.

Tebow now has more wins as the Denver starter than Orton has since 2009. Tebow is 5-3 on his career.


He has to learn how to play all 4 quarters though. Every week, he has a real nice first drive then does nothing until the final minutes of the 4th.

[Al B. Sure!]

What is very telling though is that final 95 yard drive was virtually all Tebow. 92 of those 95 yards were gained by Tebow either running or passing, the only exception being a single Lance Ball run. In fact, if I recall correctly, only on the Lance Ball run and the 20 yard scoring run by Tebow did the Broncos come out with an RB in the backfield. Every other play was in an empty backfield shotgun formation where you knew Tebow was either running or throwing. And the Jets flat out could not stop him.

[-Jrabbit]

It's certainly helpful that the defense isn't giving up 30/game anymore.

[Al B. Sure!]

It's certainly helpful that the defense isn't giving up 30/game anymore.

The Broncos only gave up 30+ once in Orton starts (to the Packers). They gave up 23, 22, 17, 49 (actually 42 since 7 game from a pick six), and 29 points in previous games. 15, 45, 24, 10, and 13 since. They've improved but...

Orton threw 7 picks. He threw 8 TDs and 7 picks.

Tebow's thrown only 1 pick. Yes, he's throwing less but Tebow has 7 TD passes and 2 rushing scores.

A 9:1 score/int differential sure helps compared to a 8:7 one.

The fact of the matter is, as much as Tebow has 'struggled', he has found the end-zone more often than Orton did and done it without turning the ball over.

[Al B. Sure!]

I've alluded to this before in a discussion with Ben about Randall Cunningham, but I don't think running QB's get the appropriate credit because running yardage gets discounted for no god damn reason at all.

If you consider a run as a completed pass attempt (it essentially is) and a rushing TD as a passing one, on his career, Tebow would be 179/278 with 1806 yards 20TDs and 4INTs... good enough for a 100.8 QB rating.

Jrabbit will say I'm now making up stats but it's true that the QB rating formula ignores QB rushing for no real reason.

[rah]

Somehow "better than Orton" isn't the best definition of a good quarterback.

[Ming]

If you consider a run as a completed pass attempt (it essentially is)

No it's not... With your "Made Up Stats", I guess Adrian Peterson is a god going 180/180 with 10 TD's and no ints

Jrabbit will say I'm now making up stats...

He doesn't have to now... because I'll say it.

[-Jrabbit]

If you consider a run as a completed pass attempt (it essentially is) and a rushing TD as a passing one, on his career, Tebow would be 179/278 with 1806 yards 20TDs and 4INTs... good enough for a 100.8 QB rating.

Jrabbit will say I'm now making up stats but it's true that the QB rating formula ignores QB rushing for no real reason.

You really do sound a lot like Imran defending Vick 5 years ago. Your man-love is oozing all over the forum.

My only point is that it's not just Tebow. The fact is, Denver has scored more than 17 points exactly once since he took over.
That's not exactly lighting it up.

[-Jrabbit]

Jrabbit will say I'm now making up stats but it's true that the QB rating formula ignores QB rushing for no real reason.

Originally, it was called the "passer rating." That's the reason. Even the NFL acknowledges this. From Wiki:

As the NFL notes, "It is important to remember that the system is used to rate passers, not quarterbacks. Statistics do not reflect leadership, play-calling, and other intangible factors that go into making a successful professional quarterback."[3] For example, it does not factor in rushing yards gained by such quarterbacks as Randall Cunningham, Steve Young, Michael Vick, and John Elway, who were also known for their running ability. Nor does it measure a quarterback's win-loss record, how many times he has fumbled or been sacked, or evaluate his leadership and performance during different situations.

The problem is that everyone WANTS the passer rating to be a measure of the total QB. But it isn't. It was never intended to be.

For me, the bottom line is winning. And while Tebow has pulled a couple great finishes out of his ass, 17 ppg won't take you very far in this league.

Shall we look at how Tebow does under the new ESPN model?

Total QBR is a quarterback rating that takes into account all of a quarterback's contributions (passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles, penalties) to his team's scoring and winning and summarizes them into one number on a 0-100 scale, on which 50 is average.

So that should be a more fair measure, right? Well, here's what they just posted:

Tim Tebow posted a 68.1 Total QBR on Thursday, raising his total to 35.1 for the season. Tebow leaps from 33rd to 29th among qualified QBs on the season, one spot behind his opponent Mark Sanchez.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7249842/nfl-week-11-total-qbr-season-leaders

[Jaguar]

The main thing Albie is missing is that sacks matter a lot and Tebow takes them at historically high rates. In fact, sacks this season wipe out a hundred of Tebow's 700 passing yards.

The secondary thing that Albie is missing is that runs are not like completed passes, because they're much shorter. A high completion percentage (usually) signals that you're able to make 6-15 yard plays with high regularity. Tebow isn't able to do that.

Ultimately, you have to address the fact that with sacks considered, Tebow averages 5.1 yards per play. (709+388-96)/(125+15+56). Run those same numbers for Michael Vick and you get 7.0 yards per play. (2193+535-74)/(300+15+65).

I dislike ESPN's total QBR, but I think it's just about right on the money about Tebow's value. I'd consider him maybe the 26th most valuable QB at best. Here are the quarterbacks I would expect to command more trade value.

* Aaron Rodgers
* Drew Brees
* Tom Brady
* Eli Manning
* Peyton Manning
* Tony Romo
* Philip Rivers
* Cam Newton
* Matt Ryan
* Ben Roethlisberger
* Matt Schaub
* Matt Stafford
* Ryan Fitzpatrick
* Andy Dalton
* Michael Vick
* Jason Campbell
* Joe Flacco
* Jay Cutler
* Alex Smith
* Josh Freeman
* Colt McCoy
* Sam Bradford
* Jake Locker
* Christian Ponder
* Matt Flynn

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm just saying he's averaging 6.9 yards per carry on the year. Not only would that be a ridiculous average for a RB but that's just under the Y/A you get from your typical pocket passer.

[Al B. Sure!]

Jaguar, Tebow's only been sacked twice in the past 3 games. That Detroit game really screwed up his sack rate. 3.9% sack rate in past 3 games.

[Jaguar]

I'm just saying he's averaging 6.9 yards per carry on the year. Not only would that be a ridiculous average for a RB but that's just under the Y/A you get from your typical pocket passer.

Sacks and throwaways inflate the rushing averages of quarterbacks. Those happen when Tebow (or any other QB) has nowhere to run. They're still bad plays, but they don't count against your rushing average.

I'm not interested in discussing things that completely ignore yards per passing attempt, completion percentage, or sacks. That's deliberately defining success in a way to whitewash all of Tebow's considerable weaknesses.

[SlowwHand]

I agree. I think, for all it's flaws, that passer ratings are the closest to telling the story. QB's get too much credit, generally, for success and failure.
Aikman was a good QB, but the Cowboys rode Emmitt Smith to Super Bowls.


Rather than wait until it's easier, who are your picks for the Super Bowl?

I'll go with Green Bay and...oh,...Baltimore. Baltimore has a good RB and defense. I'll pick them.