"NFL Football is Back!" 2011 Season Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

Of course the Broncoes were already heading for a butt kicking at the time...

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Yeah - at a certain point, you'd think he should come out of a game where you're down by four touchdowns and he's already hurt. Particularly when the Broncos are going to have to throw to come back. Probably knew it was going to be his only shot as an NFL playoff QB.

[MRT144]

It was his responsibility to have the players! Polian was in charge of that stuff.


And actually I take back the Pats beating the 85 Bears thing. While Gronkowski and Hernandez would cause immense trouble and I don't know if the 85 Bears were built to handle those guys, the 85 Bears could rush the passer. The Giants stopped the Patriots' offense the last two times out including the Super Bowl almost entirely because of pressure. If you can get to the QB by rushing only four guys, you can beat the Patriots offense. I can imagine Richard Dent and Otis Wilson and all those guys knocking Brady around, regardless if Gronkowksi is running free.

I'd also argue that the way that the 85 bears offense was, they would have prevented there being mass opportunities for Brady to be magical with his TEs because they were really good on offense that year.

[MRT144]

Yeah - at a certain point, you'd think he should come out of a game where you're down by four touchdowns and he's already hurt. Particularly when the Broncos are going to have to throw to come back. Probably knew it was going to be his only shot as an NFL playoff QB.

What a terrible series of choices.

[Demonbinder]

Probably knew it was going to be his only shot as an NFL playoff QB.

[Jaguar]

I'm pretty sure the outcome of that hypothetical matchup would be determined by which era's rules were in effect. The NE (or GB or NO) passing game is designed to beat the current rules, and would likely struggle vs. what was legal in '85. And yeah, the Bears' pass rush was pretty good. The whole defense was built around pressuring the QB.

If you put the 2007 Patriots up against the 1985 Bears, the Patriots would score on every single one of their possessions, and most of the Bears' possessions, too. I'd have them as 50 point favorites.


NFL success is highly dependent on the combination of power and speed. Both of these have dramatically improved, in every sport, since the beginnings of professional athletics.

How much so?

If Jacoby Ford were playing in 1980, he would have been the fastest human being ever to have lived. He would be the sole holder of the record for non-altitude-assisted 100 meter dash, at 10.01 seconds. Mario Fannin (a practice squad guy for the Broncos) is about 0.09 seconds slower than Ford in the 40 - and he plays at 231 lbs. He's faster than Bullet Bob Hayes at the playing weight of Earl Campbell. And he's on the practice squad of an 8-8 team.

I'm not just saying that Brandon Jacobs would be a better running back than Emmitt Smith - I'm saying that D'Brickashaw Ferguson would probably be a better running back than Emmitt Smith.

[Al B. Sure!]

And the crazy thing about it is the 70's and 80's players had the benefit of open steroid usage.


I don't know about Emmitt Smith's time, though. I don't think guys in the 90's were significantly weaker or slower than today's players. Combine numbers haven't changed dramatically, I don't think.

[Al B. Sure!]

I can't seem to get combine numbers for retired players (ESPN only goes back to 2005) but I have Mike Mamula's. I know Mamula blew the NFL away with his combine numbers way back in 1995 but he would still be top-tier in 2011. That goes both ways, though. Yes, his performance would still be elite today but it wouldn't be shocking. Here's how his performance would rank among the 2011 DE's and OLB's:

4.58 40yd dash (#1 among DE's, tied for 7th among OLB's)
4.03 20yd shuttle (#1 among DE's, #1 among OLB's)
38.5inch vertical (#1 among DE's, #2 among OLB's)
125inch broad jump (#1 among DE's, tied for #3 among OLB's)
26 reps bench (tied for 8th among DE's, 5th among OLB's)

The closest analog in the 2011 class to Mamula in terms of his speed and strength was 5th round OLB Christopher Carter but Mamula blew Carter's vertical and broad jumps out the water. See that's the thing. There are OLB's who beat Mamula in strength or speed, maybe even both (like Brian Rolle), but Mamula still blows them out in other areas (his broad jump is nearly a foot longer than Rolle's or Carter's) so Mamula would still be the best physical prospect in 2011.

So yes, Mamula was a super outlier in 1995 but he still would be an outlier in 2011, albeit a less extreme one. If you know where to get old combine results that would be great.

What I do have are the bests in 1995:

Of the 300 players at the combine regardless of position, the fastest 40 was 4.42, the best vertical jump was 41½, the best standing broad jump was 10'11', the best 20-yard shuttle was 3.90... and the best bench press was 37 reps.[4]

Guys are a lot faster now but not really stronger just judging by the bests. We don't know the averages, though.

[Al B. Sure!]

Gregg Easterbrook alert for those who hate him. Interestingly enough, he says that Mel Kiper has found that players today are not faster as much as stronger, the opposite of what it looks like to me:

So I asked Kiper to quantify changing size, speed and strength since his recordkeeping began about 30 years ago. "Speed hasn't changed that much," Kiper said. "Deion Sanders and Barry Sanders were among the fastest players ever, and they both came out 22 years ago, in 1989. Wide receivers, defensive backs -- their size and speed is about the same as a generation ago. The change is in the trenches, where the lineman have gotten much bigger and stronger."

To back this, Kiper analyzed the numbers from his top-five NFL prospects at each of the three offensive linemen positions, at five-year intervals from 1979, when his records begin, to the present. Result? From 1979 to 2011, the typical top-five offensive tackle enlarged from an average of 6-foot-4, 264 pounds to 6-foot-6, 314 pounds. From 1979 to 2011, NFL-bound centers enlarged from an average 6-3, 242 pounds to 6-4, 304 pounds. In the same period, guards enlarged from an average 6-3, 250 pounds to 6-4, 317 pounds.

A 242-pound center? That was common in the NFL a generation ago. Today, All-American center Chase Beeler of last season's Orange Bowl-winning Stanford team went undrafted because he's "too small" at 285 pounds. The offensive line of the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the NFL's perfect team, averaged 262 pounds. Today every Division I college offensive line averages well more than 262 pounds. So do most Division III college offensive lines.

And 264-pound offensive tackles? Last Friday, I watched the opening game of my local high school's season. The Bulldogs lined up offensive tackles at 6-4, 305 and 6-3, 328. These were fit, muscular young men. And the high school in question is an academics-oriented school that does not emphasize sports!

Now to strength. Kiper used the combine's repetition test: How many times can a man bench 225 pounds? "Reps" indicate "functional strength," a core requirement for football -- muscle power available while running, or after fatigue sets in during the second half. Max numbers on the bench press, clean and other lift indicators are rising, but some athletes who post amazing powerlift results are too stiff for on-field performance. The reps test, adopted by the combine in 1991, is widely viewed as the best measure of the kind of strength an athlete can use on the field.

Kiper's numbers: From 1991 to 2011, top-five offensive tackles increased from an average of 22 reps of 225 pounds to 26. Top-five guards increased from 22 to 29 reps. Top-five centers increased from an average of 21 to an amazing 30 reps. A generation ago, coaches put quick, crafty players at center. Today centers are muscle-bound specimens.

Roll Kiper's numbers together and here is what you get: Today's offensive linemen are on average 24 percent heavier than those of 1979, plus an average 31 percent stronger than those of 1991.

What about defensive line? Chris Sprow, an ESPN writer who works with Kiper, merged many combine numbers into decadal stats. In the 1980s, the average of defensive linemen entering the NFL was 263 pounds; in the 1990s, 279 pounds; in the aughts, 288 pounds. That's a slower size rise; typical defensive linemen are 10 percent bigger than a generation ago. The trend for what New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams calls "jet fighter" defensive ends, lean and fast, has moderated defensive line pound growth. Though, today's average defensive lineman has 31 pounds on Randy White.

Some of the increase in football size traces to improvements in nutrition and training. It is possible to carry 300 pounds in a healthy manner. The key for football players is to shed pounds once their playing careers, and training supervision, end.

Some of the increase in strength traces to the mid-1970s arrival of Nautilus machines, which allowed widespread safe use of slow-resistance weights without a spotter. The health-club entrepreneur Arthur Jones, the brains behind Nautilus, which spawned many imitators, had quite an impact on athletics. Free weights, of course, remain integral to muscle mass gain. Sports science, itself a new field, has found ways to time lifting routines to render them more effective than just pumping iron.

The result is bigger, stronger football players at all levels of the game, in an arms race that shows no sign of slowing. How long till the 400-pound football player?

There is a troubling side to all this. That the No. 1 sport in a nation with a childhood obesity epidemic celebrates and rewards weight gain is a public-policy aspect of football that no one has yet to address.


But the gains in size and strength are spectacular. Imagine a thought experiment -- the 1966 Green Bay Packers, winners of the first Super Bowl, play 2010 Carolina Panthers, last season's worst NFL team. The 2010 Panthers would blow the 1966 Packers off the field, on size and strength alone.

[Al B. Sure!]

Neon Deion recorded a 4.21 40 at the combine in 1989. Bo Jackson, Joey Galloway, Michael Bennett, and Darrell Green are among those said to have gone sub-4.20. This was before electronic timing introduced in 1999, though, so none of this is certain.


And Jaguar, I know you were using hyperbole but D'Brickashaw Ferguson would make a terrible RB for a multitude of reasons, including that he's slow. A lot slower than Emmitt Smith.

[Tuberski]

If you put the 2007 Patriots up against the 1985 Bears, the Patriots would score on every single one of their possessions, and most of the Bears' possessions, too. I'd have them as 50 point favorites.


NFL success is highly dependent on the combination of power and speed. Both of these have dramatically improved, in every sport, since the beginnings of professional athletics.

How much so?

If Jacoby Ford were playing in 1980, he would have been the fastest human being ever to have lived. He would be the sole holder of the record for non-altitude-assisted 100 meter dash, at 10.01 seconds. Mario Fannin (a practice squad guy for the Broncos) is about 0.09 seconds slower than Ford in the 40 - and he plays at 231 lbs. He's faster than Bullet Bob Hayes at the playing weight of Earl Campbell. And he's on the practice squad of an 8-8 team.

I'm not just saying that Brandon Jacobs would be a better running back than Emmitt Smith - I'm saying that D'Brickashaw Ferguson would probably be a better running back than Emmitt Smith.

Probably because he can't play. His speed and size isn't doing him much good is it? If you can't catch, you can't catch. He'll just get to the incompletion quicker.

ACK!

[SlowwHand]

He didn't break Bob Hayes' record.

[Al B. Sure!]

He didn't break Bob Hayes' record.

Jacoby Ford did but so did many people before Jacoby Ford. As far as I can tell from googling, Bob Hayes ran a 10.05 100m in the 1964 Olympics (though wikipedia says 10.06). Jacoby Ford was clocked at 10.01 in college. This isn't surprising since track times have gone down over the decades:

[Demonbinder]

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts for this year and quite a few of them have Bears picking Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame in the first round. It seems to me they are better off getting a proven WR in free agency since you have Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson out there as well as many others. Use the draft to get help in other need positions. Yes, Al, I know you don't care.

[Al B. Sure!]

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts for this year and quite a few of them have Bears picking Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame in the first round. It seems to me they are better off getting a proven WR in free agency since you have Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson out there as well as many others. Use the draft to get help in other need positions. Yes, Al, I know you don't care.

It's conference championship week and you want to discuss things that will not happen. None of those free agents will be Bears next year and I guarantee Welker and Colston will be going nowhere.